As the dry phase of the El Ni o continues, drought worsens in parts of Micronesia and spreads to the Marianas.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.
As the dry phase of the El Ni o continues, drought worsens in parts of Micronesia and spreads to the Marianas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 8:50 AM UTC, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
650 PM ChST Thu Feb 29 2024
Corrected typo in eastern Micronsesia section.
.Marianas Synopsis...
Scattered to broken low to mid-level clouds continue to move across
the region with cirrus spreading northward from south of the Marianas.
Surface winds have been moderate to strong from the northeast today
and should continue into the evening before decreasing to moderate
to fresh overnight through Friday. A mid-latitude cyclone in the far
North Pacific will continue to increase seas through Friday. Tanapag
Buoy shows combined seas of 9 to 12 ft, from north-northwest to
northeast.
&&
.Discussion...
A weak region of convergence continues to bring scattered to broken
low to mid clouds and breezy conditions to the Marianas. Models have
been indicating a chance for showers tonight into Friday morning,
especially near Saipan. However, with this morning's upper air
sounding showing the dry layer beginning around 850mb, confidence is
low in showers coming into fruition. With the recent lack of rain and
persistent breezy conditions, fire weather concerns will continue
into Friday. See fire weather section for more information.
Dry and breezy conditions look to persist through the day Sunday.
Time-Height charts for Guam and Saipan show higher moisture quality
pushing up to the 700mb level Sunday night into early next week. A
better chance for showers looks possible during this period.
&&
.Marine...
Long-period north swell along with breezy winds will cause hazardous
conditions for small craft for the next few days. Moderate to strong
winds will persist through Friday. Combined seas have been observed
in the 9 to 12 foot range and could rise into the 10 to 13 foot
range or higher on Friday. Hazardous surf of 12 to 16 feet will
impact north facing reefs through Sunday morning. As such, a High
Surf Warning has been issued for north facing reefs, valid for
Friday. The High Surf Advisory remains valid for north facing reefs
overnight, and for west facing reefs, now including east facing
reefs. Hazardous surf of 10 to 14 feet will be possible for west and
east facing reefs through Friday night. A high risk of rip currents
is expected along west, north and east facing reefs through at least
the weekend, meanwhile rip risk will remain moderate along south reefs
through late Saturday night.
&&
.Fire weather...
A Red Flag Warning was in effect until 6 PM this evening and a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect from 6 PM this evening through Friday
afternoon. No rainfall has been reported today and the KBDI remains
at 653. Any rainfall will remain light over the coming days and with
RH values potentially dropping into the 50s, fire weather concerns
will persist into Friday and a Red Flag Warning may be issued, if
warranted.
&&
.Eastern Micronesia...
Scattered showers will continue at Pohnpei and Kosrae tonight as
trade-wind troughs help to spread showers northward that are
developing along the convergence zone that extends from south of
Chuuk and eastward to the Date Line, mainly along 3N. Over by Majuro
a very dry trade-wind pattern has established itself as satellite
show very little shower activity anywhere near Majuro. This drier
pattern is expected to spread westward across Kosrae and Pohnpei
Friday as most of the shower activity becomes concentrated along the
convergence zone along 3N. An area of high pressure is pushing off
the east coast of Japan and will continue to drift eastward into the
northern Pacific. This will cause winds increase across the region,
first becoming breezy Friday at Pohnpei and Kosrae, and then winds
will become breezy around Majuro this Sunday.
The incoming long-period north swell will start to become noticeable
at Pohnpei Friday as the swell slowly builds across the region,
reaching Kosrae around Friday night or Saturday, and finally reaching
Majuro by early next week. This increasing swell, with the expected
increase in trade-winds, will build seas up to 10 feet at Pohnpei
Friday, so a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at Pohnpei Friday
morning. Held off on a Small Craft Advisory at Kosrae for now as
latest wave models do not have seas becoming 10 feet until about
Sunday, and models are also keeping winds capped around 20 knots as
well. The north swell will be strong enough to cause surf to build to
9 feet at Pohnpei and Kosrae by Friday night and likely peaking at
around 11 feet Saturday night, so a High Surf Advisory goes into
effect at Pohnpei and Kosrae Friday afternoon. For Majuro, noticed
the wave models have limited the strength of the north swell, but
this may be a product of swell blocking from the northern islands
and atolls to the north of Majuro, so upward adjustments to the
north swell heights in the forecast will likely needed. With Majuro
being further east then Pohnpei and Kosrae, the onset and peak of the
north swell is expected later this weekend, so still holding off on
potential High Surf or Small Craft Advisories for now, but do expect
surf at Majuro to increase along north facing reefs and seas to near
10 feet by Sunday. Wave-runup models for Majuro and Kwajalein also do
not show high potential for coastal flooding, despite the elevated
north swell, as the full moon was a few nights ago and we are now
heading towards the neap tide, when difference between high and low
tides are at its lowest.
&&
.Western Micronesia...
Latest satellite indicates some convective activity southeast of Yap
and Koror within the near-equatorial trough. Models indicate upper
level divergence continuing to contribute to instability near the
region, but remaining well to the southeast. Deep convection is
expected to remain well outside Yap and Palau's coastal waters and
any passing troughs from the southeast look to pass south of Koror.
Both GFS and ECMWF show spotty showers around the weekend as a
dissipating shear line pushes southward, it will most likely be low
end scattered showers, but a little bit of convergence and
interaction with the tropical trade wind flow could increase the
chance of showers and wind gusts. For tonight went with scattered
showers for Palau as active weather is nearby but moving away, then
isolated tomorrow. Winds are expected to breezy tonight for Yap and
Palau, then decreasing tomorrow. For Chuuk, should have a bit of
breezy conditions for Friday.
Trade wind trough has developed just south of Chuuk. Upper level
divergence is bringing instability over a fairly widespread area
generating scattered to numerous showers for islands south of Chuuk.
Nukuoro looks to be in the area of greatest instability, so expect
heavy showers later tonight. Both GFS and ECMWF models indicate
shower activity at Chuuk to be mostly isolated showers as convective
activity shifts south. Isolated showers tonight and continuing
through the rest of the forecast period, with partly cloudy skies,
mostly cirrus.
Altimetry indicates seas around 9 to 10 ft east of Palau, and
Babeldaob buoy reported around 8 ft. Seas are expected to remain in
the 9 to 10 ft range for the next few days peaking around Saturday,
but may be a bit higher for Yap as north swell increases. Issued a
surf and small craft advisories for Chuuk beginning Friday evening.
Coastal and marine advisories for Yap and Palau remain in effect.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GUZ001.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM ChST Sunday for GUZ001.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM ChST this evening for GUZ001.
Fire Weather Watch from 6 PM ChST this evening through Friday
afternoon for GUZ001.
MP...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for MPZ001>003.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM ChST Sunday for MPZ001>003.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for PMZ151>154.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM ChST this evening for GUZ001.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GUZ001.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM ChST Friday for GUZ001.
High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM ChST Sunday for GUZ001.
Fire Weather Watch through Friday afternoon for GUZ001.
High Surf Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001.
MP...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for MPZ001>003.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003.
High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM ChST Sunday for
MPZ001>003.
High Surf Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM ChST Saturday for PMZ151>154.
&&
Marianas: Williams/Montvila
Micronesia: Hong/Schank4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Wotje and nearby islands of the northern RMI degraded from D2 (severe) to D3 (extreme), and Majuro degraded from D1 (moderate) to D2 on the March 26th Drought Monitor. Kwajalein, which was in D2, improved to D1 on March 19th. Main impacts were water shortages for Wotje and nearby islands the northern RMI.
Ulithi and other nearby islands of Yap State, remained in D2 (severe) through March, while Woleai remained in D1. Yap Proper degraded to D3 (extreme) on March 26th. Yap State Government scheduled a ship to depart April 6th to deliver 90 pallets of water to the outer islands. Flights conducted by Pacific Mission Aviation, delivered 250 gallons of bottles of water to Ulithi and nearby Fais on March 27th. Ulithi was also reporting island water tank was now half full with crops turing yellow. Woleai Island's water take was very low and crop there were also turning yellow. In Chuuk State, most islands fluctuated between D0 or no drought due to periods of wet weather across the State. Pohnpei State, on March 19th, saw Pohnpei improve to no dryness on March 19th, with Pingelap improving from D2 to D1.
Saipan and Tinian entered D2 (severe) drought as weekly minimum of 1 inch of rain were not being met. No water or major agricultural impacts reported, but saw an increase in wildfires reported on the islands as vegetation continued to dry out.
Guam degraded to D2 (severe) drought as weekly minimum of 1 inch of rain were not being met. The reports of small wildfires continued to increase since February as sword grass and other vegetation continued to dry out.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Guam in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1170011, 1170012, 1170021, 1170024.