A surface front was stalled across north-central FL as high pressure across the mid-Atlantic area shifted southward. Breezy onshore winds and above normal moisture continued to bring waves of heavy coastal showers.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front was stalled across north-central FL as high pressure across the mid-Atlantic area shifted southward. Breezy onshore winds and above normal moisture continued to bring waves of heavy coastal showers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 8:45 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
945 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
...HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHIFT SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE TONIGHT...
...WAVES OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...DOWNPOURS OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS WEEK...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Late evening surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary
extending from north central FL westward across the far northern
Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure (1022 millibars) extends
from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward to the Carolina
coast. Otherwise, strengthening Tropical Storm Francine was moving
slowly north-northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico, with a
developing eye located about 150 miles south-southeast of the
mouth of the Rio Grande River. Aloft...deep troughing was
progressing eastward along the Mid-Atlantic and New England
coasts, with ridging retrograding slowly westward across south FL
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Convergent onshore winds
generated by high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard
have shifted a band of moderate to occasionally heavy showers
southward across St. Johns, Clay, and Putnam Counties, with
additional showers moving onshore over Flagler County. An active
subtropical branch of the jet stream continues to spread mainly
mid and high altitude cloudiness across southeast GA. Temperatures
at 02Z were in the 70s area-wide, with dewpoints ranging from the
upper 60s near the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers in interior southeast
GA to the low and mid 70s elsewhere.
A tight local pressure gradient will remain in place across our
region through at least Thursday as high pressure well north of
our area gradually strengthens while wedging down the
southeastern seaboard. This feature will advect a drier air mass
across southeast GA and towards the FL/GA border. Meanwhile,
troughing will progress off the New England coast on Tuesday,
allowing the frontal boundary to remain stalled or lift slightly
northward towards the I-10 corridor by midweek. Low level
convergence will remain maximized just north of the stalled
boundary overnight, keeping waves of moderate to heavy showers and
possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two generally confined to
areas south of Interstate 10 and east of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible over St.
Johns, Flagler and Putnam Counties overnight, where localized
flooding will remain possible. Low stratus ceilings may develop
during the predawn and early morning hours for locations along and
south of I-10, while mainly mid and high altitude cloudiness
prevail across southeast GA. Bands of showers may begin to move
onshore and reposition northward towards coastal Duval County
around sunrise, so we will leave the Flood Watch in place
overnight. The drier air mass and some breaks in the mid and high
altitude cloud cover should allow lows to fall to the mid and
upper 60s for much of inland southeast GA, while lows elsewhere
remain in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
High pressure to the north will help push the frontal boundary
just south of the area by Tuesday and bring some drier conditions
to SE GA. However, PWAT values of 2-2.4" remain in place for NE
FL as well as an onshore steering flow, providing just enough
instability to continue scattered to numerous rain showers mainly
south of I-10. Conditions will keep daytime temperatures in the
mid 80s for the area cooling to the low to mid 70s overnight.
Wednesday, Moisture begins to build back into SE GA brining PWAT
values above 2" in the afternoon as the system in the Gulf pushes
into LA. This will provide conditions for scattered to numerous
rain showers with possible embedded thunderstorms area wide
beginning along the coast and moving inland by the afternoon and
evening hours. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s
cooling into the 70s overnight.
The main concern for this time period will be locally heavy
rainfall in addition to saturated soils from previous rainfall
that may lead to urban flooding and flooding in low-lying and
poorly draining areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
An onshore flow pattern will continue through the forecast period
with ample moisture for the area into the end of the week.
Conditions will support scattered to numerous showers in the
afternoon and evening hours for much of the forecast period. As
Tropical Storm Francine moves north through the week, her track
and timing will decide when and if she will lift the frontal
boundary to our south back north through the area over the
weekend, leading to more rain and thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be in the 80s with overnight temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 814 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Showers are expected to overspread the SGJ terminal through the
evening hours, with IFR conditions expected to prevail through the
overnight hours. Brief periods of LIFR conditions will be possible
overnight and Tuesday morning at SGJ during heavier showers.
Showers are departing the Duval County terminals, but MVFR
ceilings will prevail through at least sunrise at JAX and CRG,
with IFR ceilings likely prevailing at VQQ. Showers may approach
GNV at times overnight, with MVFR ceilings expected to lower to
IFR during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday.
Otherwise, shower activity should remain south of SSI, and MVFR
ceilings are expected to prevail through Tuesday afternoon.
Showers will likely expand westward from SGJ towards GNV around or
shortly after sunrise, with activity then shifting northward
across the Duval County terminals by the mid to late morning hours
on Tuesday. PROB30 groups were included for GNV and the Duval
County terminals for IFR conditions during heavier downpours on
Tuesday morning. Shower activity may then shift southward back
towards SGJ during the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday.
Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots
through sunrise at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, while speeds
elsewhere generally remain sustained in the 5-10 knot range.
Speeds will strengthen on Tuesday morning, with speeds increasing
to around 15 knots and gusty at the coastal terminals and 10-15
knots inland, with further increases to 15-20 knots on Tuesday
afternoon at the coastal terminals and around 15 knots inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through at least
Tuesday across the Georgia waters, as strong onshore winds remain
sustained around 20 knots and elevated seas of 5-7 feet persist.
Meanwhile, waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue across the northeast Florida waters near a stalled
frontal boundary, with Caution level winds of 15-20 knots and
seas of 4-6 feet expanding to the waters south of St. Augustine
by Tuesday morning.
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will strengthen
slightly as it migrates eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast
by midweek, with this feature continuing to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard, keeping breezy onshore winds and elevated
seas in place through at least Thursday across our local waters.
Otherwise, strengthening Tropical Storm Francine will lift
northeastward from the western Gulf of Mexico towards the
Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary
over north central Florida will lift slowly northward late this
week, keeping waves of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through at least Friday across our local waters.
Rip Currents: Strong onshore winds and rough surf conditions will
prevail through Thursday, likely keeping a high risk in place at
all area beaches. Onshore winds will decrease slightly late this
week, allowing for surf conditions to improve enough to drop the
risk to moderate from Friday through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 84 69 83 / 10 10 20 40
SSI 77 83 77 83 / 20 30 30 60
JAX 74 83 75 83 / 40 60 60 80
SGJ 77 84 77 84 / 70 80 70 80
GNV 74 85 73 83 / 40 70 60 80
OCF 74 86 74 85 / 40 80 60 80
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-133-138-325.
High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-125.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-470.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
605 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Saint Augustine B 29.86N 81.27W
09/09/2024 M51 MPH St. Johns FL Mesonet
Mesonet station SAUF1, 1 NNE Saint Augustine
Beach.
&&
DRDThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A public rain gauge located along the Nassau | River just west of Amelia Island measured 3.14 inches storm total rainfalll.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1214427.