Wildfire in Florida, May 13 to 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High pressure over the Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will move
slowly southward through South Florida tonight into Tuesday, as
the MCS continues to move eastward from the Southeastern United
States into the Western Atlantic waters. At the same time, a mid
to upper level low will be developing over the Southeastern United
States.

This weather pattern will allow for the winds over South Florida
to become more southerly tonight into Tuesday while the 725-750 mb
cap remains in place. Therefore, most areas will remain dry through
Tuesday, but could still see a few showers or thunderstorms over
the Lake okeechobee region into the NE Portions of Palm Beach
County this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon due to the
collision of the sea breezes and lake breeze.

One of two storms could also become strong especially where the
sea breezes and lake breeze collide due to the 500 mb temps being
in the -8 to -9C. The primary impacts from the strong storms will
be gusty winds, hail, and lightning strikes.

The other major story is the heat over South Florida. Lows tonight
will only be able to fall down into the 70s over the interior
areas to around 80 over the metro areas. However, the heat index
readings over the east coast metro areas will only get down into
the mid to upper 80s overnight, due to the increase in humidity.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro
areas to around 100 over the interior areas. With higher humidity,
the heat indices will be in the 105 to 108 range over most areas,
except 100 to 105 range over the east coast metro areas. If these
forecast heat indices continue in later forecast runs, then a heat
advisory may be needed for portions of South Florida for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to
late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of
Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could
enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front
lacks the support for more widespread activity which could
provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft
will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday and Thursday which
could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will begin on Wednesday and linger into
the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat
necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Wednesday through
Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-
wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for
coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially
approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not
fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several
days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of
relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to more
of a southerly direction late tonight into Tuesday over the Taf sites.
Wind speeds should be around 15 knots this afternoon decreasing to
5 to 10 knots tonight. Most TAF sites remain dry except for KPBI with
VCTS from 21 to 00Z. Ceiling and Vis remain in VFR conditions, but
could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions at KPBI taf site
with thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to
more of a south southwest direction Tuesday into the upcoming
weekend. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots over most South
Florida waters, except for the Atlantic waters where they will be
15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday.

The Gulf seas will be 1 to 3 feet tonight through rest of this
week. The Atlantic seas will be 2 to 5 feet tonight into Tuesday
before decreasing to 1 to 3 feet for the middle to end of this
week. Therefore, an SCA will remain in place over the Atlantic
waters tonight into Tuesday

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The southeast to south winds will allow for the continue threat of
Rip Currents through tonight along the east coast beaches of South
Florida. The winds will become more south southwest on Tuesday,
but due to the low time in the morning and the last several days
of the persistent southeast winds, the threat of rip currents
should continue into Tuesday. Therefore, The High Risk of Rip
Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida will
continue through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  95 /  10  10   0  30
West Kendall     79  94  78  96 /  10  10   0  20
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  96 /  10  10   0  30
Homestead        80  91  79  94 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  80  94 /  10  10  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  94  79  95 /  10  10  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  97 /  10  10   0  30
West Palm Beach  78  94  77  96 /  30  20  10  50
Boca Raton       80  94  79  96 /  20  10  10  50
Naples           79  92  79  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....Rizzuto/RAG
AVIATION...BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
952 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
952 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches...
...Hot Conditions Interior Areas This Afternoon...
...A Few Strong Storms Northern Interior/Northeast Areas...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents developing along
the Atlantic Beaches today.

Excessive Heat: Heat Indices of 105 to 108 degrees are possible over
the interior areas, with 100 to 105 degrees over the metro areas
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening, mainly over northern inland and northeast
areas of South Florida. A few thunderstorms may be strong with
locally damaging wind gusts and hail possible. along with lightning
strikes.

Marine: Hazardous winds are expected beginning late tonight across
the Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat Indices of 100 degrees and above are expected through all of
this week. Peak heat indices in excess of 105 degrees will be
possible Wednesday through the late week period.

An elevated rip current risk will remain for the Atlantic beaches
through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the week, with
the best chances for storms being Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Some of the stronger storms could contain heavy rain, gusty winds,
small hail, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Baxter