An early morning MCS ahead of a slow moving cold front stretching from the Carolinas to the north central Gulf Coast produces gusty winds that down a few trees across Levy County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
An early morning MCS ahead of a slow moving cold front stretching from the Carolinas to the north central Gulf Coast produces gusty winds that down a few trees across Levy County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 6:09 AM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
709 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Some very patchy fog and low clouds around the region will
continue periodic restrictions for a few TAF sites over the next
hour or two, then VFR is expected through much of the day. Later
this afternoon, we could see a few thunderstorms near KTPA and
KPIE, but chances are rather low and confidence is not as high.
Another round of showers and storms is possible tonight, generally
ending around 12Z or a little later.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
U/L pattern will begin with the west coast rex block in the
process of breaking down, and quasi-zonal southern stream flow
undercutting a west coast cut-off low which will extend across
the southern tier of the U.S. This then merges with the northern
stream along the eastern seaboard.
A northern stream disturbance will dig over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley's today, and will move rapidly to the mid-Atlantic coast.
This will enhance an area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast U.S. along a frontal boundary, which will sink gradually
south through the day. Shower/thunderstorm activity will approach
the northern forecast area during the mid/late afternoon hours.
The U/L support will be in the process of pulling away from the
region as the storms approach the northern forecast area, however
a pocket of CAA aloft will advect over the northern/central
forecast area during the day increasing convective instability, so
can't rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm with potential for
damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the northern nature coast
highlighted in a slight risk for severe storms today...with a
marginal risk extending south to about the I-4 corridor. Any
showers/thunderstorms should be on a weakening/dissipating trend
as they sink south toward the Tampa area and the remainder of the
central and southern forecast area during the evening and
overnight hours. Guidance is not overly impressive with regards to
areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity today, with best
chance across Levy county.
The frontal boundary will be located across south central Florida
on Saturday with a continued chance of thunderstorms over southwest
Florida and the southern interior. High pressure will build over
the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with much drier
advecting across the region. Dew points in many areas will drop
into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. The drier air will be short
lived as the next storm system develops over the mid Mississippi
Valley and boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula
veer southeast allowing L/L moisture to rapidly recover. The next
frontal boundary will push approach the northern nature coast
early Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms...with the boundary sinking south across the central
forecast area during the day, and the area of
showers/thunderstorms sinking south along with it. As is
typically the case with systems in mid May, the U/L support will
be pulling away from the region as the boundary sinks south...and
areal coverage/strength of storms will be on a waning trend
during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night.
The boundary is expected to stall across the north
central/central Florida peninsula on Wednesday as it becomes
parallel to the U/L flow. Another weak U/L disturbance riding
through the southern stream flow will ride over the boundary on
Wednesday which should aid in generating scattered afternoon
showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Slight increase in the gradient today may create LCL SCEC
conditions this afternoon and tonight. A frontal boundary will
create a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the northern and
possibly central waters this afternoon and evening. High pressure
will build over the waters on Saturday with winds subsiding and
veering northwest. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 knots
with seas 2 feet or less Sunday and Monday. A frontal boundary
will approach the northern waters on Tuesday with SCEC conditions
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Hot temperatures over the interior will continue to create minimum
afternoon relative humidity values in the 30 to 35 percent range
today and Saturday. Much drier air advecting across the region on
Sunday will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop below
35 percent across much of the forecast area away from the
coast...with the lowest RH values over the interior in the range
of 25 to 30 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 77 89 71 / 10 30 10 0
FMY 91 77 90 71 / 0 10 30 0
GIF 94 75 93 67 / 10 20 10 0
SRQ 88 76 89 69 / 10 30 10 0
BKV 91 70 90 61 / 20 30 10 0
SPG 87 79 87 74 / 10 30 10 0
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous...OglesbyThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fire rescue reported a few downed trees across the Chiefland and Fanning Springs areas, including one downed onto a power line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1187834.