Tornado in Florida, June 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Light ENE flow is in place across the area with the sea breeze
trying to start up along the west coast. The east coast already
has a few storms firing, and despite the lack of a Cu field
currently across the central and southern zones, expect to see
scattered to numerous showers and storms develop later this
afternoon and continue into the evening as they push westward
toward our coast.

Stronger high pressure will continue to build into the region over
the next couple of days, with some drier air also moving over the
state. This will bring stronger easterly flow, limiting any sea
breeze development, as well as lowering rain chances more into the
30-40 percent range each afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s inland, to the lower to mid 90s near the coast. Lows in
the 70s.

Wednesday night/Thursday is dependent on how the westward moving
trough/upper low off the eastern FL coast evolves and moves.
Ridging should remain in place/return for the end of the week
and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms
possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly flow in place will turn onshore over the next hour or so
as the sea breeze develops along the coast. Later afternoon and
evening showers and storms will be possible across the terminals,
generally 21-03Z, then conditions clearing and winds returning to
a light ENE through 14Z Monday. VFR conditions prevail, but MVFR
to IFR possible in storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Stronger high pressure will be building into the region for the
first half of the week. This will bring a stronger easterly wind
and some evening surges that will bring winds near SCEC levels
for a few hours each night. Scattered later afternoon and evening
showers and storms will also be pushing offshore from the diurnal
convection each day. The end of the week will then be dependent on
if the trough or area of low pressure develops off the east
Florida coast and how that might evolve. Mariners should stay up
to date of this potential system through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Some drier air is expected to move into the area for the first
half of the week, but enough moisture should remain to keep
minimum afternoon humidities above critical values and allow for
some scattered afternoon storms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  10  30
FMY  76  92  77  92 /  30  30  10  40
GIF  75  91  75  91 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  75  94  76  95 /  40  30  10  40
BKV  72  94  72  94 /  40  20   0  30
SPG  80  94  80  94 /  40  30  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle