A weakening upper-level trough over the Florida Peninsula created an atmosphere that was conducive for diurnal convection as showers and storms developed along sea-breeze boundaries.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A weakening upper-level trough over the Florida Peninsula created an atmosphere that was conducive for diurnal convection as showers and storms developed along sea-breeze boundaries.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 7:59 AM EST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 859 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...Heat Advisory In Effect For Miami-Dade/Broward Counties Through This Evening... ...Scattered to Numerous Storms Especially Interior/West Coast Today Along With Heavy Rainfall... ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 840 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Bermuda high will remain over the Western Atlantic waters extending westward into the Central Florida today keeping a east southeast wind flow over South Florida. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to push inland across South Florida with the west coast sea breeze remaining over the west coast metro areas. At the same time, a tropical wave will be moving through the western Caribbean sea allowing for some deeper tropical moisture to work into the region from the Bahamas. Therefore,scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today over South Florida with the best coverage over the interior and west coast metro areas. The PWAT values this morning from the MIA sounding was around 2 inches and the short range models are showing the PWATS to remain in the 2 to 2.1 inch range which is in the 90th percentile range for this time of year. Therefore, there could also be some heavy rainfall with the showers and thunderstorms that do develop today. So will add heavy rainfall wording to the forecast for today. The heat indices should still get into the 105 to 107 range over most areas today. These heat indices are below the heat advisory conditions over most of South Florida, except for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Therefore, the heat advisory will remain in effect through early this evening. Rest of the forecast, looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control through the end of the work week. This will result in a continued E/SE flow across South FL and the precip pattern will remain consistent with that set up. Highest PoPs during the afternoon and early evening hours will be confined to the interior and SW FL, and overnight PoPs will be maximized over the Atlantic waters and along the east coast. Forecast soundings and HREF guidance shows PWAT values ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches which will result in highly efficient rainfall rates. That, along with slow storm motions, may result in an isolated flooding risk for urban and poor drainage locations. Much like the past few days, a few strong storms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily over the interior and SW FL. High temps this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s. These temps combined with elevated dew points in the middle to upper 70s, will result in peak heat indices of 100-108 degrees. Early afternoon convection will likely keep Palm Beach and SW FL counties from reaching criteria for at least a couple hours. With lower PoPs and lower advisory criteria in Miami-Dade and Broward, confidence is higher for these locations reaching criteria, so a heat advisory was issued from 10 AM this morning until 6 PM this evening. Low temps tonight will remain mild, only dropping down to the middle 70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts. High temps on Friday will again be in the low to middle 90s, which will likely result in another day of heat advisories over a portion of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Through the weekend, the subtropical ridge circulation will continue across the South Florida region. Light to moderate east to southeasterly low level flow will continue to prevail for the weekend under this setup. Rain chances will continue to be more favored towards SW Florida along the Gulf coast and western interior sections as the Gulf breeze will not be able to penetrate very far inland, plus the Atlantic sea breeze will be able to push further inland under the E-SE flow. Concurrently, another Saharan dust plume (SAL) will be advecting into the region over the weekend, which is likely to create drier conditions especially in the mid-levels. This can limit shower and storm growth potential plus how widespread precipitation can become. Moving into next week, the SAL will linger and still have an impact on rain chances, but there is also expected to be a TUTT low (tropical upper tropospheric trough) forming in the western Atlantic and may advect westward towards the Bahamas/Cuba with energy advecting into South Florida as well. The TUTT will provide extra forcing for ascent, which combined with extra moisture advection (PWATs likely increase over 2 inches) will create the potential for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Potential impacts from this are still highly uncertain given that the TUTT's development and track could change drastically by the time the weekend ends, but this will be something to monitor as we head into next week. With the higher uncertainty, PoPs are forecasted primarily in the chance to likely categories (i.e. 50-70% primarily) for the early to mid- week period next week. Flow may veer further southerly at times, but will still predominantly stay in an east-to-southeast regime. Thus, higher PoPs are generally focused towards the west coast and interior areas each day even with the TUTT potential. Temperatures are expected to continue reaching the low to mid 90s range for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Therefore, Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day given the high moisture leading to high dew points along with the hot temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Winds will be easterly at 5 to 10 knots today over most TAF sites, except for KAPF where winds will become westerly between 17 & 00Z. VCTS for east coast TAF sites between 15 & 19Z and for KAPF TAF site between 17 and 00Z. VCSH for east coast TAF sits from 12 & 15Z. Ceiling and Vis will remain in VFR but could fall down into MFVR or IFR conditions with any showers or storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 81 93 82 / 50 20 50 30 West Kendall 92 79 93 79 / 50 10 50 30 Opa-Locka 92 81 93 81 / 50 20 50 30 Homestead 91 80 91 81 / 40 10 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 50 20 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 81 92 82 / 50 20 50 30 Pembroke Pines 95 81 95 82 / 50 20 50 30 West Palm Beach 92 80 93 80 / 50 10 50 20 Boca Raton 92 81 93 81 / 50 20 50 30 Naples 91 79 93 78 / 60 40 60 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...BNB
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 934 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 190200- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County- Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County- Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County- Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County- Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami- Dade County- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 934 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...Heat Advisory Today for Miami-Dade And Broward Counties... ...Scattered To Numerous Storms Today Especially Interior/West... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today, especially this afternoon and early evening over the interior and west coast metro areas. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rains are the main threats. Heat: Peak heat indices will range between 105 to 107 through the early evening hours across most areas. The highest values will remain over the southeastern areas of South Florida where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Flooding: There could be some minor flooding in low lying and flood prone areas from thunderstorms today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day through the rest of the week and this upcoming weekend. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Heat indices could continue to rise to near or in excess of advisory thresholds each day the rest of the week and this weekend. Thus, further heat advisories may be necessary. An elevated risk of rip currents is possible this weekend as easterly flow increases. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Baxter
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:37 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media shared photos of a funnel cloud near Lakeport as a shower moved through the area along a lake breeze boundary.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1197308.