A weak mid-level low over the Florida Peninsula and increasing atmospheric moisture supported the development of numerous slow-moving showers and thunderstorms on the afternoon and evening of July 11th across South Florida.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A weak mid-level low over the Florida Peninsula and increasing atmospheric moisture supported the development of numerous slow-moving showers and thunderstorms on the afternoon and evening of July 11th across South Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 6:31 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A transient upper low remains embedded in the synoptic scale pattern. Meanwhile, the Saharan Air Layer will gradually diminish as moisture advection begins to materialize. This will allow for an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening compared to the past several days. With very light steering flow, storm motion will be slow, with the highest storm chances in areas where sea breeze convergent zones and thunderstorm outflow boundaries interact. The proximity of the mid-level low may provide additional mid to upper-level support for strong thunderstorm development, especially across the Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon and evening. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours. Localized flooding will remain possible due to the slow storm motion combined with multiple rounds of heavy downpours occurring over the same area. To round out the week, remnants of the weak/decoupled upper low will linger over South Florida. This will continue to foster the advection of deep tropical moisture over the region. Boundary layer winds continue to persist out of the ESE, generally favoring the greatest convective activity over the interior and western portions of South Florida. With H500 vorticity lobes hanging around aloft, expect perhaps a little more synoptic forcing to allow for periods of increased cloud coverage and light to moderate rainfall at times, with deep convection (thunderstorms) embedded in the mix as well. Overall, a fairly typical South Florida wet season day, with localized flooding possibly being realized where the thunderstorms are slow to move. High temperatures through the end of the week will be warm as usual this time of year, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The synoptic weather pattern begins to change this weekend as the aforementioned upper low slinks northward along towards the Carolinas and weak ridging begins to build over the region. Simultaneously, the western Atlantic high will start to build towards the area. As a result, light easterly-southeasterly flow will set up and the daily convective regime will be driven primarily by sea breeze processes, with the East Coast sea breeze being dominant under the ESE flow regime. Thus, isolated to scattered showers will be possible every afternoon through the long term period, starting near the East Coast metro areas in the late morning period, then drifting inland in the afternoon. The likelihood of stronger thunderstorms will not be high, but isolated stronger storms cannot be entirely ruled out. These may contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavier downpours. Daily high temperatures will be in the low 90s through the weekend and the first half of next week, with isolated areas potentially reaching the mid-90s. Overnight lows will primarily be in the 70s, potentially creeping into the low 80s along the immediate coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 L/V wind flow and VFR conditions are expected overnight, with SHRA/TSRA possible once again during the morning and afternoon hours. Handled with VCSH/VCTS for now, however TEMPOs/Amendments may be needed if confidence in convection coverage increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A light to moderate WSW wind flow today will become more southerly on Friday. These winds will then become ESE over the upcoming weekend as high pressure becomes re-established over the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the evening hours. Thunderstorm coverage may increase later this weekend and into early next week as tropical moisture filters in over the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 79 91 / 30 60 30 50 West Kendall 75 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 50 Opa-Locka 77 91 79 92 / 30 60 30 50 Homestead 76 90 78 90 / 40 60 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 80 90 / 30 60 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 80 91 / 30 60 30 50 Pembroke Pines 77 92 79 93 / 30 60 30 50 West Palm Beach 76 90 78 91 / 30 60 20 40 Boca Raton 76 90 79 92 / 30 60 30 40 Naples 80 89 78 93 / 30 60 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Hadi
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Miami FL 817 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 130030- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County- Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County- Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County- Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County- Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami- Dade County- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 817 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...Showers and Storms Possible Tomorrow... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazards are expected overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day through the upcoming weekend and into next week. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Slow storm motions could also result in localized flooding, particularly near the metro areas. Heat indices of 100-110 degrees are expected across most of South Florida through the upcoming weekend and into next week. An elevated risk of rip currents may return to the Atlantic Coast beaches towards the second half of the weekend and into early next week as onshore flow increases. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media shared pictures and videos of street flooding with 6 inches of standing water near 6th Street and Jefferson Avenue in Miami Beach after rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area. Rainfall estimates in the area were 3 to 4 inches in a 3 hour timeframe.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1197288.