Flood in Alaska, May 24 to 29, 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
424 AM AKDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous rain showers will continue over the Interior
today becoming more scattered this afternoon.  A chance of
thunderstorms also possible Northway to Eagle and around Tanana.
Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior
this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for
the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. Over
the Brooks Range, snow and blowing snow expected with several inches
possible over the Eastern Brooks Range through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Upper low over the Bering will drop south and into the Gulf of
AK on Saturday. An Arctic low will push across the Brooks Range
over the weekend and move near the Seward Penn on Sunday. This
low will will continue to retrograde over the Bering Strait on
Monday. Weak easterly waves will continue to move over the
Eastern Interior through the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers will persist into Friday along with a downtrend
in high temps through Saturday. A chance of
thunderstorms also possible Northway to Eagle and around Tanana.
Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior
this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for
the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool
through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west
coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering.
A stronger short wave will move from the High Arctic to near
Utqiagvik Sat night and then drop south over NW AK on Sun and over
the Seward Penn on Monday. This will bring much cooler temps to the West Coast
Sun into Mon. Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering
Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force winds
over the water.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west to Point
Hope Friday into Saturday. A weather system will bring snow to
the Brooks Range Passes Thursday night into Saturday.
Snow showers are expected to develop over the Eastern North Slope
late tonight and continue into Saturday night. Between 4 and 6
inches of snow is expected, with the heaviest snow falling
between Friday night and Saturday night.

Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Friday over
Brooks Range Passes producing low visibility in snow and blowing
snow and drifting snow. This could make travel over Atigun Pass
difficult Friday night into Saturday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Numerous showers will continue over the Interior this morning and
into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms between Eagle,
Tanana and Galena. Isolated thunderstorms near McGrath on Sat.

Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern
Interior this weekend with continued wetting rain chances
for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.
Cool temps through the weekend, warming back up into
the 60s early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The break up front is now moving through the Yukon Delta. Ice has
jammed up near Emmonak and water has risen rapidly there.
Water is now rising fast at Emmonak and is flooding low lying
areas, including the road to the airport. The staff gage at the
power plant now reads 2 ft. No structures are flooded as of 8am
Thursday, but that could change as water continues to rise.
Flooding is expected soon at Alakanuk and Nunam Iqua. Water can
rise rapidly. A flood Watch remains for Kotlik where ice has also
jammed up with high water, but no flooding was occuring this
morning. There is still as risk of flooding at Kotlik should the
ice shift and push water towards the town. People in all these
areas should move themselves and their valuables to higher ground.

The water levels on the Porcupine River at Old Crow rose
dramatically last weekend due to heavy snowmelt and remain high.
This high water is expected to reach Ft Yukon between today and
Friday, with water levels peaking at Ft Yukon over the weekend.
This high water will gradually fill sloughs and swales east of Ft
Yukon late this week and could bring flooding into Ft Yukon this
weekend with high water continuing into next week. A flood watch
is valid for Ft Yukon through next week Wed.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
     Flood Warning for AKZ825.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-854-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&