Strong high pressure built south across the Arctic Coast from a 1048 mb high 400 NM north of the Arctic Coast. This high pressure tightened the pressure gradient along the coast resulting in strong east to northeast winds developing, in particular along the western Arctic coast.
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The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
Strong high pressure built south across the Arctic Coast from a 1048 mb high 400 NM north of the Arctic Coast. This high pressure tightened the pressure gradient along the coast resulting in strong east to northeast winds developing, in particular along the western Arctic coast. Widespread areas of blowing snow accompanied the winds with blizzard conditions developing.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 19, 12:07 PM AKST, 12 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues through the week for the
West Coast as a series fronts bring strong winds, blowing snow,
and a mixed bag of precipitation. Strong ridging pushing north
across the mainland brings a significant warm-up across much of
the state this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 504 dam (decameter) low is in the western
Bering Sea with a shortwave extending southeast to Unalaska. The
shortwave lifts north to stretch from near St Lawrence Island to
the Y-K Delta Wednesday morning and north of the Arctic Coast by
Wednesday night. A 561 dam ridge is over the Gulf of Alaska with
ridging extending north across much of mainland Alaska. The
ridging over Alaska gets shunted eastward, with the ridge axis
near the AlCan border, as the low in the western Bering Sea tracks
northeast to be near the Gulf of Anadyr Wednesday afternoon, with
troughing essentially encompassing eastern Siberia south across
the western Bering Sea to the western Aleutians on Thursday. A
second shortwave over the central Aleutians Thursday afternoon
will move to the West Coast Friday.
At the surface, a 1044 mb high 400 NM north of Demarcation Point
this afternoon will move southeast to be over Banks Island by
Wednesday afternoon and continue southeast through Thursday. A 986
mb low 150 NM southwest of St Matthew Island will track north to
be near the Gulf of Anadyr by Wednesday afternoon and then move
into Chukotka. A 993 mb low develops near Wrangel Island Wednesday
afternoon. A 986 mb low moves to Shemya by Wednesday morning,
weakening to 990 mb by Wednesday afternoon as it moves to be 250
NM NW of the Pribilofs, and then further weakens through Thursday.
Another low moves north out of the Aleutians Thursday morning and
to near St Lawrence Island by Thursday afternoon.
Models...
The 19/12Z models initialized models initialized well against the
12Z RAOBS and remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern. At the surface, models are in fair agreement through the
first twenty four hours, with models diverging in the placement
and track of the various lows in the Bering. Opted for a general
blend for much of the forecast. Models continue to struggle with p
types for the West Coast and Western Interior and thus snow
amounts. Increased winds out west to account for higher winds in
obs, but overall leaned towards the NAM for the forecast package.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front will push across the Arctic Coast this afternoon into
tonight, increasing east winds of 20 to 30 mph once again along
the coast. Near Point Hope, southeast winds of 30 to 40 mph with
gusts to 55 mph are expected to develop this evening and persist
through Wednesday. These strong winds and falling snow will result
in blizzard conditions. In addition to falling snow, there is the
potential for mixed precip. Winds along the Arctic Coast diminish
by Wednesday night, but at Point Hope the winds are slower to
drop off. Gusty southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph develop in the
Brooks Range passes this afternoon and persist through at least
Thursday. Precip will be limited to areas from Point Lay west.
Temperatures warm quickly this week with temperatures climbing
into the teens to twenties above by Wednesday along the coast and
into the 30s through the Brooks Range passes and across the Arctic
Plains.
West Coast and Western Interior...
The first front has pushed north of the Seward Peninsula this
afternoon, with precip having ended from Nome south to the Y-K
Delta. The second front will move to the West Coast later today
and tonight, bringing another round of strong winds, blizzard
conditions, blowing snow, and a mix of rain, snow and freezing
rain. Precipitation forecast continues to be difficult due to
p-type forecast being messy, which in turns makes snow amounts
difficult. Expect the heaviest snow to fall in the southern
Interior of the Seward Peninsula, as well as in the favored
upslope areas. The blowing snow forecast is difficult as well.
Believe the best chances for reduced visibility occur with the
first wave before temperatures warm. Another storm system will
push north along the coast on Thursday. Temperatures trend upwards
through the week and by Wednesday temperatures top out in the 30s
across much of the region.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet conditions through Friday as ridging aloft dominates the
forecast. A quick shot of snow is possible from the Upper
Koyukuk Valley to the Central Brooks Range on Thursday, otherwise
no precipitation is anticipated. The main focus remains the warm
up. Temperatures warm quickly, by Wednesday temperatures will
range from mid to upper teens in the Yukon Flats to the lower 40s
on the north side of the Alaska Range. On Thursday the 40s spread
further north to the Middle Tanana Valley.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Strong ridging will persist over the
central and eastern Interior into early next week, bringing well
above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Along the west
coast, a number of shortwaves will track northward from Bristol
Bay, bringing periods of heavy snow, mixed precipitation, and
strong winds. A strong shortwave may bring precipitation as far
east as Tanana on Saturday. The North Slope will also transition
to much warmer than normal with precipitation confined mainly west
of Utqiagvik.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southerly winds
will result in elevated water levels along the southern Seward
Peninsula coast through Thursday. This will cause water to rise up
through cracks in the sea ice and push water on top of the ice in
some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or near the shore could
become inundated with water. Ice shoves may be possible for
vulnerable coasts along south-facing coastlines.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-822-825.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805-816-850-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ808-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Blizzard conditions developed after midnight on March 20th at Cape Lisburne (PALU). Strong east to northeast winds with gusts to 71 mph were reported, accompanied by visibility in blowing snow of less than a quarter of mile. Conditions improved during the afternoon hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1167945.