A strong warm front associated with a low in the Aleutians moved north across the West Coast. As the front pushed across the region, strong winds developed accompanied by heavy snow.
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The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A strong warm front associated with a low in the Aleutians moved north across the West Coast. As the front pushed across the region, strong winds developed accompanied by heavy snow. Blizzard conditions developed along the Yukon Delta Coast, St Lawrence Island, and the Bering Strait Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 2:30 PM AKST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is in store for the upcoming week as a
series of storms will impact the West Coast, bringing strong
winds, blowing snow, heavy snow, and mixed precip. Strong ridging
pushes north across mainland Alaska bringing a significant warm-up
with widespread temperatures at or above freezing for areas south
of the Brooks Range by Wednesday and 20s above making their way
north of the Brooks Range by Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 510 dam (decameter) elongated low is centered
northwest of St Matthew Island this afternoon, with several
shortwaves rotating through the flow. The northern most shortwave
extending east across the Chukotsk Peninsula to Point Hope To
Bettles to Fort Greely lifts northeast off the Arctic Coast by
early Tuesday morning. The second shortwave extending southeast
from the low to near Amchitka and into the northern Pacific this
afternoon, moves to stretch from the low to Unalaska by Tuesday
afternoon, the Seward Peninsula Wednesday morning, and north of
the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon. While the shortwaves are
rotating through the flow, the upper low moves to the western
Bering Sea through early Wednesday and then moves northeast across
Chukotka through Wednesday night. A 536 mb ridge is centered over
central Chukotka this afternoon weakens through Tuesday as it
moves to the Sea of Okhotsk. Meanwhile, strong ridging in the
north Pacific extends north to Trapper Creek, absorbing weak
ridging that extends from near Eagle north to Demarcation Point to
a piece of energy offshore the Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea
coast that split from the ridge over Chukotka. The strong ridge in
the north Pacific slides north through Tuesday to become centered
over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging building north across much
of mainland Alaska.
Models...
The 18/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern.
Models are in better agreement with the low in the Bering that
they have been struggling with. The ECMWF remains the farthest
east with the low today, but is clustered closer with the NAM and
the GFS. That being said, models continue to struggle with p types
for the West Coast and Western Interior and thus snow amounts. A
lot of hand edits to p types and snow amounts for this forecast
package. For winds, leaned towards the NBM for the first 24 hours
and then the NAM thereafter. For pops, slowed down the progression
a bit and leaned heavily on hand edits to capture the forecast
details.
At the surface, a 1046 mb high is 400 NM north of Prudhoe Bay with
high pressure extending southwest to Chukotka. A front stretching
from near Point Hope east along the Brooks Range will lift north
of the Arctic Coast tonight. A 987 mb low is 175 NM south of Atka
this afternoon with a front stretching from the low across the
Pribilofs to Bristol Bay. As the low moves north into the Bering
Sea Tuesday, the front will lift north through the Bering Strait
to the Western Arctic Coast. Another front stretching from the low
across the Pribilofs to Bristol Bay will lift north along the West
Coast Tuesday to stretch from the to St Lawrence Island through
the Bering Strait to the Western Arctic Coast. By Tuesday
afternoon, the low is situated 200 NM northwest of the Pribilofs,
with yet another front stretches southeast from the low to
Unalaska. The low continues north to the Gulf of Anadyr by noon
Wednesday, dragging the front to the Seward Peninsula and then
offshore the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front moving from southwest to northeast is pushing across the
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range this afternoon and will continue to
do so through early Tuesday morning. Visibility in blowing snow
has largely remained above a mile today, however now that falling
snow is moving across the coast, the combination of the winds and
east winds of 20 to 35 mph is resulting in areas of blowing snow
with visibility of a mile or less. These winds will diminish from
west to east through the evening hours, allowing for improvement
in windchills and visibility. Another front will push across the
Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, increasing east
winds of 20 to 30 mph once again along the coast. Near Point
Hope, southeast winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Winds diminish
Wednesday. Gusty southerly winds develop in the Brooks Range
passes Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm quickly this week
with temperatures climbing into the teens to twenties above by
Wednesday
West Coast and Western Interior...
The first in a series of storms begins to impact the Y-K Delta and
St Lawrence Island this evening as it tracks north through the
Bering Strait through Wednesday. Models continue to depict two
waves with this storm. The first leading warm front which will
bring brief heavy snow, blizzard conditions, strong winds, and a
mix of rain, snow, and wintry mix, then a warmer second wave with
another round of strong winds with more snow, rain, and wintry
mix. Precipitation forecast continues to be difficult due to p
type forecast being messy. Opted to introduce rain and a rain-snow
mix into the forecast, instead of going for all wintry mix. This
reduced snow amounts. Snowfall totals from this afternoon through
Wednesday night range from 6 to 10 inches of snow in the
Bendeleben Mountains and Pilgrim Springs to 5 to 7 inches near
Nome to 4 to 6 inches on St Lawrence Island and generally less
then 3 inches elsewhere. The blowing snow forecast is difficult as
well. Believe the best chances for reduced visibility occur with
the first wave before temperatures warm. Another storm system will
push north along the coast on Thursday. Temperatures trend
upwards through the week and by Wednesday temperatures top out in
the 30s across much of the region.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is diminishing across the Interior this afternoon in the wake
of a shortwave trough that is lifting northeast. Once the
shortwave clears the Yukon Flats and southeastern Brooks Range, no
precip is anticipated through Wednesday. A quick chance of snow
is possible from the Upper Koyukuk Valley to the Central Brooks
Range. The main focus this week will be the warm up. Temperatures
warm quickly, by Wednesday temperatures will range from mid to
upper teens in the Yukon Flats to the lower 40s on the north side
of the Alaska Range. On Thursday the 40s spread further north to
the Middle Tanana Valley.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Ridging across mainland Alaska
Tuesday and persists through the weekend, while a series of
shortwaves will ride up and over the western periphery of the
ridge. This will support a series of potential storms for the West
Coast where heavy snow and mixed precip are possible. Drier
conditions expected across the Interior. A significant warm up
will occur. By Friday, high temperatures will warm into the mid
30s to near 40 for much of the area south of the Brooks Range and
well into the 20s above along the Arctic Coast and upper 20s to
near 30 in the Arctic Plains.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southerly winds
will result in elevated water levels along the southern Seward
Peninsula coast through Wednesday. This will cause water to rise
up through cracks in the sea ice and push water on top of the ice
in some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or near the shore
could become inundated with water. Ice shoves may be possible for
vulnerable coasts along south-facing coastlines.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>804.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ825.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
Gale Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>806-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812>814-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 143 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024 AKZ821-822-824-191400- Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast- Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills- Including Wales, Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, and Shaktoolik 143 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...Elevated Water Along the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast through Wednesday... Strong southerly winds will result in elevated water levels along the southern Seward Peninsula coast through Wednesday. This will cause water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push water on top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or near the shore could become inundated with water. Ice shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts along south-facing coastlines. Residents living along the coast are encouraged to monitor current conditions before venturing out on the sea ice.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Blizzard conditions developed during the evening hours on March 18th at Chevak (PAVA). Strong winds with gusts to 51 mph were reported accompanied by heavy snow, resulted in blizzard conditions developing. Conditions improved after midnight on March 19th.
Blizzard conditions developed overnight on March 19th at Wales (PAIW). Strong winds with gusts to 74 mph were reported, accompanied by heavy snow. This resulted in blizzard conditions developing. Conditions improved after midnight on March 20th.
Blizzard conditions developed during the early evening hours on March 19th at Savoonga (PASA). Strong winds with gusts to 58 mph were reported, accompanied by heavy snow. This resulted in blizzard conditions developing. Conditions improved during the late evening.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1167954, 1167956, 1167955.