NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 9, 2:30 AM AKST, 7 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 2:30 AM AKST, 7 hours 22 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 AM AKDT Sun Jun 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Fire weather conditions will continue today for much of the
Interior, with Red Flag Warnings for hot, dry, and windy weather
in effect across a broad area. Temperatures will be similar to
yesterday, with widespread 70s and 80s expected, followed by
somewhat cooler conditions in the mid 70s on Monday, with
thunderstorms and showers in much of the southern and western
Interior. Further showers will be possible in the southern
Interior and especially over the Alaska Range on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Northerly winds over the Bering and Chukchi Seas and
easterly winds over the Arctic will be present for most of the
next few days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
As of 06Z, there is an upper ridge extending west into the
Interior across the Canadian border, with heights on the border at
500 mb of around 570 dam and 850 mb temperatures of 13 to 14 C.
There is a shortwave trough positioned over the Kenai Peninsula
moving to the northwest, and there is a roughly 555 dam upper low
just north of Cape Bathurst. There is another upper low of about
551 dam over eastern Siberia. At the surface, there is a 985 mb
surface low with gale force winds over the Gulf of Alaska. Over
the northern Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and Chukchi Sea, there is
a decently strong north pressure gradient of 10 to 15 mb driving
moderate north winds. This gradient extends east over the Interior
of the state where it is weaker but will still be supportive of
some higher-than-normal winds on Sunday, especially over the
northern Interior.
Model Discussion...
There is very good model agreement in the surface pressure field,
although some minor deviations occur Tuesday into Wednesday over
the Bering Sea and with strength and position of low pressure
over the eastern Interior.
Aloft, agreement is also good overall through Monday afternoon.
On Monday, models agree on splitting the upper ridge in two, with
temperatures cooling a bit. Some differences are present at 500 mb
late Monday and Tuesday with a westward-propagating upper low.
While they have similar heights of around 552 to 554 dam, at 00Z
on Tuesday, the ECMWF positions the feature over the eastern
border northeast of Chalkyitsik, while the GFS centers it over the
Dalton Highway northeast of Anaktuvuk Pass, the Canadian over
Arctic Village, and the NAM somewhere between the ECMWF and
Canadian solutions. There are also differences in surface
precipitation; while all model solutions are supportive of showery
/ convective precipitation, the Canadian yields almost no
precipitation in the Fairbanks area, while each of the GFS, ECMWF,
and Canadian offer at least periods of showers, so will lean
against the Canadian on this point. Moving into Wednesday, each
model has significant differences in the upper air heights over
the Interior, with the GFS and Canadian having a mostly northeast
gradient while the NAM and ECMWF have a much more zonal / easterly
gradient, with the NAM propagating a shortwave west over the
northern Interior. Will favor a general blend during this time
frame.
Central and Eastern Interior...
The main story for today in the Central and Eastern Interior will
be the continuing warm, dry, and windy conditions, with
temperatures again widely reaching into the 70s and 80s. The
highest winds will mostly be north of the Alaska/Richardson
Highways, with east winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 30 mph.
There is also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm in an area
extending from the White Mountains west. After today, the easterly
pressure gradient will weaken, allowing the winds to drop off
somewhat, and increasing cloud cover with cooler temperatures in
the 70s will be likely. Showers are also possible in especially
the southern Interior, and there will be the possibility of some
thunderstorms from the Fortymile Uplands west to Tanana, northwest
to near Hughes, and northeast to Arctic Village. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, further cooling into the 60s to lower 70s (perhaps mid
70s in the Yukon Flats on Wednesday) will occur, with additional
scattered showers in the Interior, especially the southern
Interior, and more widespread rain possible over the Alaska Range.
West Coast and Western Interior...
The West Coast and Western Interior will see another warm day
today, with temperatures broadly in the 50s and 60s along the
coast (save the far western Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence
Island), and the 70s and lower 80s in the Western Interior.
Conditions will also remain mostly dry today, with maybe an
isolated thunderstorm from the central Seward Peninsula east to
Huslia. Coastal areas and the Western Brooks Range will see some
gusty winds, with gusts of up to 20 to 30 mph possible, especially
over the YK Delta and Western Brooks Range. Temperatures will be
a few degrees cooler on Monday and winds slightly weaker, with a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms over the Western
Interior and interior Seward Peninsula. Tuesday and Wednesday will
see most areas cool below 70, with increased chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms, especially in the Western Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and low stratus, as is typical this time of year, will be
present over much of the Arctic coast the next several days, with
some possible further south toward the northern Brooks Range
during the morning time frames. With a tightening pressure
gradient south of an Arctic high, the North Slope and especially
Arctic coast will see increasing winds from the east to northeast
this afternoon lasting through the next few days. The highest
winds are favored over the western Arctic, where winds of 15 to 30
mph with higher gusts will be likely. Some showers and an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible in the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range with a west-tracking upper low on Monday, with a
lower chance for showers on Tuesday.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
There will be an upper low over Gulf of Alaska on Thursday will
slowly slide east of the three successive days, with an upper low
over the northern Bering Sea south of the Chukotka Peninsula
shifting north and general upper high pressure building in over
the state. Moderate southerly winds look to generally be in place
at the surface through the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Generally
cloudier conditions over the Interior with daily showers and
thunderstorms possible look to be the general rule heading beyond
midweek, with ridging building in from the north leading to
warmer-than-normal conditions initially over the North Slope and
more broadly over the Interior late week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings are once again in effect the Fortymile Country
and much of the northern Interior, which will see hot, dry, and
windy conditions, with temperatures in affected areas in the 70s
and 80s, relative humidity values in the teens and lower 20s, and
east winds of 15 to 20 mph gusting up to 30 mph. There will also
be a chance for isolated thunderstorms from the White Mountains
east.
While some areas could still approach critical conditions, Monday
looks better overall, with min RH values rising into the 30s
percent and high temperatures dropping by several degrees into
the mid 70s or lower in most areas. Winds also look to be weaker
overall. With the exception of the Yukon Flats, most of the
Interior as well as the interior Seward Peninsula will have a
chance for at least isolated thunderstorms, with widely scattered
thunderstorms possible in the western Fortymile Uplands and Upper
Chena River Valley and vicinity as well as in the Lower Koyukuk
and Middle Yukon River Valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North
Slope area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt,
giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and
Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. Recent gage reports along
the Sag indicated rising waters that reached just below minor
flood stage late Saturday morning, and levels remain high, so we
have continued a flood advisory for the river as a surge of water
moves downstream, which may result in localized erosion. Rising
waters have also been noted on the Kuparuk River near Deadhorse,
which has risen to just above minor flood stage as of early Sunday
morning. There are some ice jams present on the Colville, which
will enhance any flooding threat. Water levels are expected to
crest by the end of this week into the weekend.
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate plenty of
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue to warm
over the next few days, snowmelt could lead to continued high
water for streams in that area.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-931>935.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
DS