NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 6:45 AM AKST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 6:45 AM AKST, 10 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
645 AM AKST Wed Feb 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moist and warm southerly flow over Alaska will continue today,
then turn southwest and cool on Thu, then become westerly and much
cooler by weekend into next week. This means the current much
warmer than normal pattern over Northern AK will continue into
today, then cool to near normal by the weekend, with colder than
normal temperatures next week.
Blizzard conditions and east winds gusting to 50 mph over the
Arctic Coast will continue into this afternoon from Nuiqsut east,
and continue into Thu morning west of Nuiqsut. Barter Island and
Utqiagvik have much better visibility than other locations and
suspect that is due to winds off the ice and there being little is
any loose snow on the ice near those locations.
Strong southerly chinook winds blowing across the Alaska Range
is now ending, but will resume late this afternoon or evening and
continue into mid-morning Thu.
Snow over the Central Interior and Northwest Alaska will move
northeast over the North Slope and Eastern Interior today and
diminish from the southwest. This will bring several inches of
snow today to most of the Eastern Interior, with several inches
of snow today and tonight over the North Slope. There will be a
chance of mixed precip this morning southeast of Denali to Ft
Yukon.
Snow spreading over SW Alaska today will spread northeast over
the Western Interior, the Central Interior, the south Slopes of
the Alaska Range, and the West Coast tonight and over the Eastern
Interior on Thu. This will bring another 4-6 inches, of snow to
the Eastern Slopes of the Nulato Hills today into tonight, 4-6
inches south Slopes of the Alaska Range tonight into Thu, and
several inches of snow in most other areas tonight into Thu.
Easterly gales developing over the West Coast from the Bering
Strait south today will cause blizzard conditions over the Yukon
Delta and St Lawrence Is, with near blizzard conditions along the
southern Seward Pen and Bering Strait. This will bring strong
winds and blowing snow to Eastern Norton Sound today, with
east winds 20-30 kt developing with blowing snow along the West
Coast north of the Bering Strait and in the Kobuk Valley tonight
then decreasing on Sat.
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep long wave trough over NE
Russia, the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea, and a long wave ridge
over Alaska and NW Canada. This pattern will become progressive
Thu through the end of the week as a series of strong short wave
troughs move from the Bering Sea NE across Alaska digging into the
ridge and pulling the long wave trough east over Mainland Alaska
by the weekend. This means the current much warmer than normal
pattern over Northern AK will continue into Wed, then cool to near
normal by the weekend and below normal next week.
Moist southerly flow over Alaska will turn southwest on Thu. This
will cause periods of snow into Thu.
Surface...
.SYNOPSIS...
Moist and warm southerly flow over Alaska will continue today,
then turn southwest and cool on Thu, then become westerly and much
cooler by weekend into next week. This means the current much
warmer than normal pattern over Northern AK will continue into
today, then cool to near normal by the weekend, with colder than
normal temperatures next week.
Blizzard conditions and east winds gusting to 50 mph over the
Arctic Coast will continue into this afternoon from Nuiqsut east,
and continue into Thu morning west of Nuiqsut. Barter Island and
Utqiagvik have much better visibility than other locations and
suspect that is due to winds off the ice and there being little is
any loose snow on the ice near those locations.
Strong southerly chinook winds blowing across the Alaska Range
is now ending, but will resume late this afternoon or evening and
continue into mid-morning Thu.
Snow over the Central Interior and Northwest Alaska will move
northeast over the North Slope and Eastern Interior today and
diminish from the southwest. This will bring several inches of
snow today to most of the Eastern Interior, with several inches
of snow today and tonight over the North Slope. There will be a
chance of mixed precip this morning southeast of Denali to Ft
Yukon.
Snow spreading over SW Alaska today will spread northeast over
the Western Interior, the Central Interior, the south Slopes of
the Alaska Range, and the West Coast tonight and over the Eastern
Interior on Thu. This will bring another 4-6 inches, of snow to
the Eastern Slopes of the Nulato Hills today into tonight, 4-6
inches south Slopes of the Alaska Range tonight into Thu, and
several inches of snow in most other areas tonight into Thu.
Easterly gales developing over the West Coast from the Bering
Strait south today will cause blizzard conditions over the Yukon
Delta and St Lawrence Is, with near blizzard conditions along the
southern Seward Pen and Bering Strait. This will bring strong
winds and blowing snow to Eastern Norton Sound today, with
east winds 20-30 kt developing with blowing snow along the West
Coast north of the Bering Strait and in the Kobuk Valley tonight
then decreasing on Sat.
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep long wave trough over NE
Russia, the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea, and a long wave ridge
over Alaska and NW Canada. This pattern will become progressive
Thu through the end of the week as a series of strong short wave
troughs move from the Bering Sea NE across Alaska digging into the
ridge and pulling the long wave trough east over Mainland Alaska
by the weekend. This means the current much warmer than normal
pattern over Northern AK will continue into Wed, then cool to near
normal by the weekend and below normal next week.
Moist southerly flow over Alaska will turn southwest on Thu. This
will cause periods of snow into Thu.
Surface...
A 984 mb low 100 NM west of Kivalina will move northwest and
weaken today. A warm front extending east from this low to a 998
mb low just south of Deadhorse will move to Point Lay to a 988 mb
low near Demarcation Point by 3pm Wed, with the front weakening in
place and the low moving east to Inuvik as a 998 mb low by 3am
Thu. A cold front stretching from Point Hope to Denali will move
east of the ALCAN Border tonight. Snow is occuring along the warm
front and cold front.
A strong low in the Central Bering Sea will move to 200 NM southwest
of Gambell as a 962 mb low by 3am Thu, and to the Bering Strait
as a 985 mb low by 3am Fri. An occlude front stretching from this
low to the southeast Bering Sea will move to Gambell to Anvik by
3pm Wed, to The Bering Strait to McGrath by 3am Thu, to Point Hope
to Northway by 3pm Thu, and to Point Lay to Old Crow by 3am Fri.
Snow, blowing snow and Easterly gales will spread to the YK Delta
and St Lawrence Is with this front today, with snow and blowing
snow east winds of 25 to 35 mph spread to the remainder of the
West Coast south of the Bering Strait today, and to the Western
Interior this afternoon into this evening, and to the NW Alaska
tonight. Snow will spread NE across the Interior with with the
front on tonight into Fri.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z, and show similar solutions
aloft through 3pm Thu, then differ some Thu night and Fri on short
wave strength and speed. The NAM and ECMWF agree fairly well on
features aloft Thu night and Fri so we will use a blend of those
two models for features aloft through Fri.
Chinook flow across the Alaska Range is decreasing early this
morning as a strong short wave and cold front move east across the
area. This will allow snow to spread east across the Eastern
Interior this morning. Southerly chinook flow will redevelop
across the Alaska Range late this afternoon and continue into
early Thu, then end Thu morning as flow aloft turns southwest.
850 mb temperatures range from -12C along the West Coast and
North Slope to 0 to +2C over the Interior southeast of Denali to
Ft Yukon. Above freezing 850 mb temps will push east of the ALCAN
Border by noon today as the cold front moves east. 850 MB temps
in most areas will decrease from Thu through the weekend, with
temps falling to -14C to -24C by the weekend. This pattern will
allow a chance of mixed rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow over
the Interior Southeast of Denali to Ft Yukon this morning. Surface
temperatures now well above normal will drop to near normal by
Sat, and then fall well below normal next week.
With precipitation, models show similar patterns for areal
coverage but differ significantly on amounts. Will use a blend of
the NAM and ECMWF for precip areal coverage and amounts since
those are the preferred solutions aloft. Highlights or precip
are:
Snow over the Central Interior and Northwest Alaska will move
northeast over the North Slope and Eastern Interior today and
diminish from the southwest. This will bring several inches of
snow today and a chance of mixed precip this morning to most of
the Eastern Interior, with several inches of snow today and
tonight over the North Slope. Snow spreading over SW Alaska today
will spread northeast over the Western Interior, the Central
Interior, the south Slopes of the Alaska Range, and the West Coast
tonight and over the Eastern Interior on Thu. This will bring
another 4-6 inches, of snow to the Eastern Slope of the Nulato
Hills today into tonight, 4-6 inches south Slope of the Alaska
Range tonight into Thu, and several inches of snow in most other
areas tonight into Thu.
At the surface models verify well at 06Z. The NAM, Canadian and
ECMWF show similar solutions through Fri. Will use a blend of the
Canadian for the North Slope winds, and the NAM for winds from
the Brooks Range south through Fri. Highlights are:
East winds gusting 50 mph along the Arctic Coast will decrease
from Nuiqsut east late today, while continuing into Thu west of
Nuiqsut. Southeast winds gusting 30 to 40 mph at Delta Junction
will increase to 50 mph late this afternoon into early Thu then
decrease on Thu. South winds gusting to 40 mph through the Alaska
Range will increase to 60 mph this evening and continue into Thu
AM, then decrease by noon Thu. East gales developing over the West
Coast from the Bering Strait south today, with east winds 20-30 kt
developing along the West Coast north of the Bering Strait and the
Kobuk Valley tonight then decreasing on Sat.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801>803.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ816-819-828.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825>827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ829.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ830.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-813-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-814-850.
Gale Warning for PKZ803-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805-817-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-851-860-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ857-858.
&&