A strong ridge of high pressure in place over Northern Canada and extending into mainland Alaska worked in tandem with a deep upper trough over the Bering Sea to draw moisture north along an atmospheric river that remained in place across the Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska from 2/14 through 2/16. A series of shortwave troughs driving northward led to several rounds of heavy…
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A strong ridge of high pressure in place over Northern Canada and extending into mainland Alaska worked in tandem with a deep upper trough over the Bering Sea to draw moisture north along an atmospheric river that remained in place across the Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska from 2/14 through 2/16. A series of shortwave troughs driving northward led to several rounds of heavy precipitation across Southwest Alaska. There were two main shortwaves - the first brought snow to the south side of the Alaska Peninsula beginning early on 2/14, pushing north into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta, and westward along the Alaska Peninsula. The second arrived during the afternoon/evening of Feb 15, bringing warmer air and reinforced heavier precipitation.
The most severe conditions with this event were focused over the Kuskokwim Delta, where up to a foot of snow fell near Bethel while blizzard conditions occurred for many hours along the coast between 2/15 and 2/16.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 4:17 AM AKST, 6 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 417 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... The strong blocking ridge remains centered over the southern Yukon and extends across most of the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral. This is producing mostly clear skies across Southcentral with just a little cirrus riding over the periphery of the ridge on the Cook Inlet area. A surface low located well south of Kodiak Island, along with a warm occlusion extending northward to Bristol Bay, is causing pressure gradient driven east to southeast winds across the western Gulf of Alaska again today. However, with winds diminished across Southcentral, there is not the adiabatic compression occurring that created the warming that we saw early Wednesday and through the day in some areas. Temperatures aloft are still warm due to the inversion over the region due to that warm ridge. This inversion is not nearly as strong as yesterday as seen comparing the 00Z (Wednesday afternoon) Anchorage sounding and the 12Z one from early this morning. the 00Z sounding showed a peak temperature of 51F at 900 ft elevation, where the maximum temperatures from early this morning are from 40F to 44F from about 1000 to 2000 ft elevation. Kodiak Island remains along the periphery of moisture from the Pacific storm. Kodiak City will be in and out of rain today while steady rain will persist along the south end of Kodiak Island. The upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward across western Canada over the next few days. For Southcentral, there will be very little change in weather through Friday with continued sunny skies, windy conditions in some areas, and above normal temperatures. Kodiak Island will see periods of rain, locally heavy at times, as the ridge retreats and a series of lows and upper level short- waves track northward out of the Pacific. A change in weather will become more evident on Saturday as the retreating ridge will bring clouds and precipitation northward across the Gulf on Saturday. There remain some differences in model guidance, but expect precipitation to reach the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Gulf coast sometime on Saturday. Snow levels will start out near 1000 feet and rise through the weekend, so expect all rain at sea level as precipitation arrives. With continued southeasterly low level flow, inland areas will remain downsloped and mostly dry. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A highly amplified pattern, with a deep longwave trough extending across the Bering Sea into the North Pacific and a dome of high pressure over the Yukon. On satellite imagery there is a fetch of modified tropical moisture going over the Alaska Peninsula into mainland Southwest Alaska this morning. There is plenty of cold air in place and additional snow accumulations are expected. The models ping into additional plume of moisture with origins from the Central Pacific moving across the AKPEN into the weekend. This set up looks to be warmer than the previous ones, so rain may begin to mix into Bristol Bay. All the while, a Pacific low lifts northward over the western Aleutians bringing snow and gusty winds through Thursday and and will pivot northward. A second Pacific low of 957 mb to 959 mb will move into the region on Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact track, with some uncertainty in potential high winds across the western Aleutians on the south side of the low for Saturday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... The upper level Canadian ridge extending over Mainland Alaska briefly regains its amplitude before edging to the East through Wednesday. A weak upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska drifts to the Southeast through Monday, while the Bering low loops around the Central Bering. Several significant shortwaves rotate around this low through the end of the forecast period. Forecast confidence is overall good, however it briefly becomes chaotically uncertain locally as the shortwaves move along the Southern portions. One shortwave over the Western Aleutians and Bering brings areas of gale force winds for Sunday, diminishing. Afterward, it helps develop a weak closed center South of the Eastern Aleutians Tuesday that moves into the North Pacific by Wednesday. Precipitation along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula starts as snow and becomes mixed rain and snow on the Bering side and all rain along the Pacific side through Wednesday. Another well developed low approaches the Western Aleutians for Wednesday, increasing winds and precipitation in the West. The Bering shortwaves batter the Western side of the Mainland ridge as the ridge begins its Eastward move. Surface wind flow will boost moisture all along the Southern Coasts from the bottom of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island into Cook Inlet, and from the bottom of the Kenai Peninsula to the Canadian Border. Coastal locations will see rain with the higher amounts from Prince William Sound East as somewhat warmer than normal temperatures continue to pump into the Interior through the forecast period. Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. Light winds coupled with winds coming out of Turnagain Arm will maintain the possibility of LLWS this morning. LLWS should become less of a concern over the terminal by late this afternoon/early evening. &&
1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Toksook Bay AWOS (PAOO) experienced blizzard conditions from 11:15 AM AKST 2/15 through 9:40 PM 2/14 with 1/4 mile visibility and winds gusting up to 50 mph. Visibility gradually improved going into the overnight hours of 1/15 even as heavier snow continued to fall, with rapid improvement in conditions on the morning of 1/16 as winds began to diminish.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1163205.