Blizzard in Alaska, April 2 to 3, 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An arctic front will bring snow showers and snow squalls, winds
gusting to 25 to 40 mph, and plummeting temperatures for the
Central and Eastern Interior, including the Fairbanks Metro and
Tanana Valley. A high end gale force front pushes into the West
Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing another round of
strong winds along with snow and blowing snow to most of the west
coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...

Strong shortwave moving through the Interior and northern Alaska
this morning with cold advection behind it. Temps will drop on
Tuesday then warm back up Wed and Thursday. Upper level troughing
will deepen and persist over the west coast. A gale force low
moves into the Northern Bering Tuesday night swinging an occluded
front into the West Coast. Another round of mainly snow is
expected for the YK Delta and into the Seward Peninsula. Strong
southwesterly flow sets up behind the front leaving the West Coast
in an onshore flow, showery regime with cold air advection.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Strong shortwave pushing through the Interior on Tuesday bringing
colder westerly winds, with 850mb temps plummeting to
-20C. Highs on Tuesday in the teens. Tuesday and Tuesday night
 will be substantially colder than it has been lately with temps
 falling into the single digits to negative single digits Monday
 night and Tuesday night. Snow showers will accompany the trough
 as well with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in most areas. NW
 winds will blast across the Upper Tanana Valley and there will
 likely be some blowing and drifting snow from Dot Lake to Tok to
 Northway. High temps getting back to the upper 20s and low 30s on
 Wed and close to 40 on Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A strong front will approach the west coast bringing strong
winds, snow and blowing snow to most of the west coast. Blizzard
warnings are in effect for Saint Lawrence Island and the Yukon
Delta Coast. Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Seward Penn.
Watches are still in effect for northwest ALaska starting Wed
morning.  There is a chance for brief mix to rain and snow
over the YK Delta and Saint Lawrence Island, but most of the
precip over the West Coast will fall as snow, with a broad area of
4 to 9 inches of snow, locally heavier across the Seward
Peninsula higher elevations, through Wednesday night. Accumulating
snowfall will continue into the late week with additional snowfall
accumulations.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Winter Storm Watch in effect for the Point Hope area beginning
early Wed morning through Wed. Frontal boundary will bring more
snow and blowing snow to the Brooks Range passes and then Arctic
coast Wednesday, with south winds through the Brooks Range Passes
15 to 35 mph and east winds along the coast.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Bering Sea westerly flow dominates Thursday as a trough is
shifting inland, bringing snow to pretty much the entire Mainland,
especially the Western Interior. Confidence is not as high with
energy and moisture pushing as far inland as Fairbanks due to the
possibility of drying downsloping winds off the Alaska range late
in the week. This pattern will gradually shift south during the
weekend, but chances of snow will remain as some form of arctic
troughing persists to the north and moisture streams north from
the Bering/Pacific. Overall temps look fairly seasonal if not
slightly above norms over the southern half of the Mainland...with
the coldest air remaining bottled up over the Arctic.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Southwest winds increase along the YK Delta into Norton Sound
Wednesday night and Thursday as a Bering low moves to near Saint
Lawrence Island. This may bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3
feet above the normal high tideline, although since ice is in
place, it will likely just mean water seeping through cracks in
the ice nearshore.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ815.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ816-817.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ825-827.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ836.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&