Avalanche and Heavy Snow in Washington, February 26 to 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
855 PM PST Sat Feb 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will bring lowland rain, mountain
snow, and windy conditions to Western Washington tonight into
Sunday. A second system will impact the area Monday into Tuesday
with potentially heavy rain and high snow levels. Cool, unsettled
conditions are then expected to persist through the remainder of
the coming week.

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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Rain and blustery winds with
snow in the mountains through Sunday morning. Western Washington
will see something of a brief lull in precipitation Sunday afternoon
before the next system arrives late Sunday night and Monday. This
will be an atmospheric river event with heavy rainfall and rising
snow levels. Before the snow levels rise significantly, Stevens Pass
could pick up a quick 10 inches of snow with mainly rain at
Snoqualmie Pass. QPF for the 36 hour period between late Sunday
evening and Tuesday morning is expected to be 2 to 3 inches along
the coast, 5 to 8 inches in the Olympics, generally 3 to 5 inches
for the Cascades, and 1.5 to 2 inches around much of Puget Sound.
Despite the recent relative dry spell, this will be enough to send a
few rivers into minor flood levels. More information on this can be
found in the hydrology discussion.

Precipitation will gradually wind down Tuesday, but showers will
continue as an upper trough remains situated just offshore.
Temperatures will edge upward to a little above normal in the
short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...As we move into the mid
to late week period, anomalous upper troughing will take up
residence across the western third of the country. A series of
weak, shortwave upper troughs look to keep things cooler and
unsettled, but are not expected to produce significant impacts. By
next weekend, model ensembles are hinting that upper ridging over
the Gulf of Alaska will lead to drier conditions and somewhat
below normal temperatures for early March. 27

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.AVIATION...Southwesterly flow aloft with VFR to MVFR
conditions. MVFR conditions will settle in at most terminals through
tonight through Sunday morning. Heavier rain has and may yet result
in some visibility reductions at some terminals. Southerly winds
have been a bit slow to develop, have pushed them back a bit based
on the latest guidance and trends with gusts 20-25kts likely
particularly just before daybreak through mid morning at many
locations.

KSEA...VFR conditions will lower MVFR levels especially with the
persistent rain. S/SE winds 8-12kts increasing to 10-15kts with
gusts up to 25kts possible.

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.MARINE...Gale winds over the coastal waters, northern
inland waters and the eastern and central portions of the Strait.
Small craft winds will affect the remaining waters through Sunday
morning. Winds will gradually ease through the morning hours Sunday,
however, with a brief break ahead of the next surge. Solid small
craft to Gale conditions expected again by Sunday evening. Swell
increasing to 10 feet this evening, followed by seas gradually
subsiding through the day on Sunday.  Expect an other uptick in seas
with the strong winds associated with the next system expected to
affect area waters Sunday night into Monday.

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.HYDROLOGY...Rivers will rise through early next week with
multiple weather systems moving through the area. The system that
will bring the heaviest rainfall is Sunday night-Monday. River
forecasts continue to increase for rivers across the area. Skokomish
will rise above flood stage on Monday most likely, with other rivers
potentially rising above minor or moderate flood stage late Monday
into Tuesday, however there is uncertainty into which rivers. The
current forecast suggests potentially most area rivers off the
Cascades reach minor flood stage Monday night into Tuesday, with
moderate river flooding possible on the Skokomish, Snoqualmie, and
Cowlitz. If in these areas continue to check for river forecast
updates through early week. JD

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.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Cascades of
     Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
     Counties.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday for Eastern Strait of Juan
     de Fuca-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central Coast-North
     Coast.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     San Juan County.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Olympics.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-San Juan County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
     10 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

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