Wildfire in Texas, March 24 to 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
302 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): After the intrusion of
much drier air today in the wake of a weak cold front, the
surface ridging will build steadily eastward in tandem with the
500 mb ridging moving in from the west over the RGV. This will
allow the brisk W-NW surface winds to slacken later tonight and
become more onshore pretty quickly on Fri. The low level dewpoints
will start to rebound late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Despite
the rebounding surface dewpoints, RH levels will still plummet
across much of the inland portions of Deep South TX on Fri. The
very dry nature of the atms will set the stage for pretty wide
swings in max/min temps due to good radiational effects.

The NAM and GFS are in pretty close agreement for short term temp
trends with the ECMWF being the big outlier especially for the
MFE area with the ECMWF showing a max of 97 versus the NAM/GFS
showing a high in the upper 80s. It's pretty hard to ignore the
ECMWF warm trend as this model often handles diurnal heating
effects much better than the NAM/GFS. So will stick close to a
blend of the 3 models which push the highs up into the lower to
mid 90s across the inland areas.

The overall confidence is above average at this time, but the high
temps tomorrow could be a challenge due to the wide range of model
solutions concerning the warmup.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): A 500mb ridge situates itself
over Texas for the weekend which will provide a pleasant rain-
free weekend with highs in the mid 80s and lower 90s with
southerly winds. By Sunday afternoon, southeasterly winds become
breezy allowing the dewpoints to increase slightly making Sunday
feel a bit more humid than Saturday. As for the start of next
week, Monday and Tuesday look to be windy and warm ahead of the
next incoming cold front. As the pressure gradient tightens
downstream of the mid-level low pressure system off the west
coast, we could see gusts up to 30-35 mph in the RGV. May need a
Wind Advisory for those days. Highs for Monday through Wednesday
are forecast to be above average with most of the CWA likely
reaching the 90s as the ridge intensifies. Next cold front will
move through Deep South Texas on Wednesday but is expected to be
weak and will only cool us down by a few degrees for Thursday. On
Thursday, the highs are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s still.
As for rain, no rain is expected in the Long Term forecast at this
time other than over the northern Gulf Waters on Wednesday with
the incoming front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER: The current Red Flag Warning for the entire Deep
South TX/RGV area is verifying pretty well as the observed RH
values range in the single digits and teens and surface winds
gusting to 20- 30 mph. RH values tonight will rebound back to
50-90% overnight as the surface winds decrease due to a weakening
PGF. The min RH values will drop once again into the single digits
to teens by Fri afternoon. However, the low level winds will
decrease quite a bit overnight into Fri. So do not expect Red Flag
Warning criteria to be met on Fri. However, an RFD may be
necessary to remind folks of the fire dangers even with much lower
surface winds.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Friday Night): After posting the SCA for the
lower TX Gulf waters due to the stronger W-SW surface winds earlier
this morning, conditions at Buoy020 have flirted back and forth
between SCEC and SCA conditions. The winds and seas may remain close
to the SCEC/SCA line over the next few hours with the winds dropping
off later tonight as the PGF weakens. Will allow the SCA to continue
for the Gulf waters through 5 pm. The benign marine conditions will
continue through tomorrow night maintaining pretty quiet marine
conditions.

(Saturday through Thursday): Favorable marine conditions expected
for the weekend due to high pressure situated over the area. As
the pressure gradient begins to tighten on Monday, Small Craft
Advisories may be needed for the remainder of the Long Term period
due to the incoming cold front on Wednesday. Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front on Wednesday for the
northern Gulf Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          54  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              51  91  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  92  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  75  61  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>257-351-
     353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

60-Speece...Short Term
65-Soria...Long Term
58-Reece...IDSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
950 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

TXZ248>257-351-353-250930-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
950 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect across all of Deep South Texas
from 10 AM to 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible across local beaches
of the lower Texas coast Monday into Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory may be needed across portions of Deep South Texas
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-250930-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
950 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the lower Texas Gulf Waters
through 5 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Small Craft Advisories are likely needed Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.