Hail in Texas, March 14, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

.AVIATION...  (15/00Z TAFs)
VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Tuesday night. Have
included VCTS at KAUS this evening, as SHRA/TSRA are just east of
that site. FEW-SCT060 at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF will move off to the east
leaving SKC. A dust layer at FL035 passing over KDRT will gradually
thin leaving SKC. At the I-35 sites, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15
KTs will shift to north-northwesterly with the frontal passage this
evening with a few wind gusts to 30 KTs possible. Wind speeds will
decrease to less than 10 KTs Tuesday evening. At KDRT, northwesterly
winds of 10 to 20 KTs with a few gusts to 30 KTs gradually decrease
on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/

UPDATE...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Lee and Williamson
counties until 10 PM CDT this evening or 15/03Z. A potential for
large hail and damaging winds exits for those counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Temperatures are warming with a breezy south to southwesterly flow
while a fair weather cumulus field has developed for locations near
and east of I-35. Currently, winds are gusting up to around 35 mph
for some locations. A surface low is developing along the Red River
as an upper level low moves into North Texas. A dryline tied to this
surface low will begin to move east this afternoon and will result
in worsening fire weather conditions in its wake across the Southern
Edwards Plateau as humidity tumbles while the winds remain breezy. A
Red Flag Warning starting at 21Z remains on target over this region.
Elsewhere, the latter half of the afternoon should see elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions. A weak cold front will
overtake the dryline into this evening where the winds look to
temporarily subside before shifting and increasing from out of the
northwest behind the front. Other than rain/storm chances to the
east, which will be highlighted in the paragraph below, anticipate
mild conditions tonight with skies clearing as the northwesterly
flow ushers in drier air.

As the weak front overtakes the dryline this evening and moves
eastward across the region, just enough lift may be in place for a
band or at least a broken band of convection to develop around or
east of the I-35 corridor near or just after sunset. Greatest
chances for rain and storms should concentrate across the coastal
plains through about 1 AM. The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook
highlights a marginal to slight risk from Williamson County into the
coastal plains. Environmental conditions with MLCAPE from 500 to
1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 45-50 kts could support
a couple of isolated strong to severe storms along that convective
band. The main hazards will be localized damaging winds and large
hail with these storms. After conducting a model sounding analysis,
storms may be more elevated in nature. The tornado threat remains
very low, however, if a storm becomes more surface based, the storm
could be able to take advantage of decent low-level shear existing
across the region. These storms could produce some locally heavy
rainfall as well. With the dry antecedent conditions and a fairly
quick progression for storms to push eastward, any flooding concerns
are low. Activity will advance east of the CWA around or shortly
after midnight.

The storm system pushes to the east and zonal flow establishes aloft
from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Tuesday will be warm and full of
sunshine with dry, breezy northwesterly winds. Afternoon highs will
trend just a few degrees lower than the highs today. The dry and
breezy conditions will renew the fire weather concerns, especially
across areas to the west of I-35. Tuesday night will trend slightly
cooler with overnight lows in the 40s. For the low-lying areas of
the Hill Country where cold air drainage occurs, lows may dip down
into the 30s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A low amplitude upper level ridge will be over Texas to start the
long term period. Low level flow will be from south bringing warmer
air to the region. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
Wednesday than Tuesday and then around five degrees warmer Thursday.
Thursday afternoon/evening a Pacific cold front will move through
South Central Texas. This will produce low chances for showers or
thunderstorms over our eastern counties Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning. PW values will be moderate and any rain will be light
with only 0.1" likely. Behind the front winds will become northerly
bringing cooler, drier air. High temperatures Friday will be around
10 degrees cooler than Thursday. Low level flow will become easterly
Friday and then southeasterly Saturday. This will mean warming
temperatures and dry weather for the weekend. A warm front will move
northward in the Gulf Monday and generate some showers and
thunderstorms over our eastern counties.

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning remains on target to begin starting at 4 PM for
Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties as a tight upper low will
mix down strong wind gusts to the surface while a dry-line and dry
cold front move through the warned area. Wind gusts over NW Val
Verde county could reach 40 mph. These winds are expected to occur
over an area with minimum RH values in the 8 to 15 percent range.
Humidity levels rebound tonight through the overnight underneath a
moderate northwesterly flow behind the dry cold front.

On Tuesday, expect for the northwesterly winds to uptick with wind
gusts to around 25 to 30 mph. With RH values dropping to 10 to 30
percent range across the region, elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible for much of the region outside
those locations to the east of I-35 that may see rainfall from
isolated thunderstorms tonight. Winds subside into Tuesday evening
with recovering RH levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              51  76  46  79  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  76  41  79  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  79  43  81  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            47  73  43  80  51 /  -    0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           48  82  46  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        49  75  43  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             47  82  41  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        49  76  43  80  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   50  75  45  77  53 /  40   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       51  79  46  80  52 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           52  81  46  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for Edwards-Kinney-
Val Verde.

&&

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
836 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151345-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
836 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a marginal to slight Risk of severe storms east of a
line from Georgetown to Lockhart to Yoakum tonight. The primary
severe hazards will be localized damaging winds and large hail.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon to 11 PM this evening
for Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney Counties due to a dry-line and
dry cold front with strong wind gusts behind the front. Elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions will extend east to the
I-35 corridor this afternoon with breezy and dry south to
southwest winds ahead of the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
west of Interstate 35 each day through at least Friday due to
the combination of dry fuels, low humidity and breezy winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.