Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the third and an approaching weak mid-level circulation allowed for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop off the caprock. Relatively dry sub-cloud layers allowed for strong downburst winds to develop which produced a couple of severe wind gusts near Hackberry (Cottle County) and near Silverton (Briscoe County).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the third and an approaching weak mid-level circulation allowed for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop off the caprock. Relatively dry sub-cloud layers allowed for strong downburst winds to develop which produced a couple of severe wind gusts near Hackberry (Cottle County) and near Silverton (Briscoe County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 1:51 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 251 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SHORT TERM... The forecast looks like it's pretty much on track at this time. We are starting to see some isolated shower and t-storm activity develop across the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains as of 2 pm...with more concentrated development located just to our east. This activity is associated with a small mid-level circulation that is centered near Abilene and moving northwest. We've been on the subsidence side of the circulation through early afternoon, but the region of (modest) lift will be moving into the Rolling Plains in the next few hours. Deep-layer moisture has increased across the area in the last 24 hours with PWAT values running from 1 inch across the west to around 1.5 inches in the east. This could result in some localized heavier downpours and a little more precip loading in downdrafts, but MLCAPE values are still pretty modest given the paltry lapse rates so severe potential seems pretty low. Although there will be some downburst potential, supporting wind gusts to 50 mph or so. Once again the activity should begin to wane this evening. However, with the circulation transiting the forecast area overnight, another round of showers and t-storms may develop after midnight as we we get some elevated destabilization. Once again, overnight activity will be more likely across the Rolling Plains although we won't be able to rule out a shower anywhere across the forecast area. For Independence Day, the temperature trend looks to remain fairly flat with highs once again mainly in the 90s on the Caprock and 90s to near 100 in the Rolling Plains. There may be some lingering showers in the morning, but then it should be dry through at least mid afternoon. It appears that the focus for convection tomorrow afternoon will shift west to eastern New Mexico and along the state line. We expect scattered activity to develop along a north-south axis in that area and then likely begin to edge east toward evening...possibly reaching the I-27/U.S. 87 corridor mid to late evening before dissipating, although uncertainty remains high on just how far the activity will be able to progress eastward. .LONG TERM... Guidance continues to agree that upper ridging will remain centered across the lower Mississippi Valley through at least midweek. This positioning combined with broad troughing over the eastern Pacific will allow the main plume of monsoonal moisture to center over NM/CO through this period. The general result of this setup will be the continuation of daily afternoon and evening storm chances over eastern New Mexico and the western South Plains, however there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength of the upper ridging and associated subsidence which has large implications on the eastward extent of this convection. The combination of best eastward moisture extent and upper forcing continues to be on both Tuesday and Wednesday, and good ensemble consensus supports SChc PoPs roughly along and west of US-385 both Tue and Wed evenings, with much higher uncertainty in precip coverage further east. The upper ridge will begin to expand zonally and shift westward beginning on Thursday, acting to thin and displace the monsoonal moisture plume to our west and north. Precip chances decrease accordingly by late week, with a small area of mentionable PoPs limited to the far SW Panhandle Thurs and Fri. Above-average temperatures will otherwise prevail through next weekend. /DWK && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 33/30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 TXZ021>044-042000- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the area this afternoon and evening. The potential for severe weather is low, but brief localized strong wind gusts and heavy downpours are possible with this activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Low thunderstorm chances will continue mainly for the western South Plains and far southwestern Panhandle each afternoon and evening from Monday through Friday. Severe weather is not currently expected, but localized heavy rainfall is possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:03 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Hackberry measured severe wind gusts from 1503 CST through 1504 CST. A peak wind gust of 60 mph was measured at 1504 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Silverton measured a wind gust of 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1026886, 1026889.