Drought in Texas, August 9 to 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the sea breeze late morning into the
afternoon. Light east to southeast winds will persist with a few
gusty periods during the day and near any convection. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible around any convection. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Thunderstorm activity has passed well west of all
three local TAF sites late this afternoon with VFR conditions
currently being reported. VFR prevails overnight with low
probability of MVFR ceilings occurring within brief patches of
cumulus developing late tonight. Thunderstorms to regenerate along
the seabreeze once again Tuesday late morning through the
afternoon. Light east to southeast winds prevail tonight and
Tuesday with a few gusty periods mainly during the daytime hours
and near any thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Instability (with 12Z
BRO sounding showing temp near -8C at 500mb) provided by an upper-
level (250mb) low slowly spinning toward the Tamaulipas coast,
acting on above-normal precipitable water values of approximately
2.0", has been enough to generate another round of sea-breeze
induced convection today. After a promising start, coverage has
perhaps waned a bit more than expected, but the boundary is still
progressing well inland due to the weak background flow, as
pointed out by the previous shift. Not seeing enough forcing to
keep convection going beyond sunset, leading to another quiet,
muggy night with light winds and low temperatures mainly in the
mid-upper 70s. Could see some brief reductions in visibility near
KHBV in the very early morning hours, as has been observed the
last couple of nights. However, the automated sensor there appears
to be suffering from some issues, so not very confident on this.

Tomorrow should be more of the same, with another round of sea-
breeze convection. Although the upper-level low will continue
drifting inland, it should still have enough influence to produce
a few showers and thunderstorms with PW values still hovering bit
above normal in the 1.8-2.0" range. Collaborated WPC QPF shows
highest amounts (nearly 0.25") hugging the Rio Grande in the mid-
Lower Valley, though NBM has 20-30% PoPs all the way up into the
northern Ranchlands. Temperatures should run a couple of degrees
higher than today, or pretty close to normal, in other words (97
BRO/101 MFE).

Upper-level ridge axis, connected to a high over the Four Corners
region, moves back in Tuesday night with some associated drying at
mid-levels.  Looks like a mostly clear summer night.  The "Dog Days"
are officially here, with Sirius now visible before sunrise in the
eastern sky.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): H5 ridging over the Southwest
United States will persist. Over the Southeast United States,
however, ridging will give way or flatten as a series of short wave
troughs slice south across the Great Lakes and dig into the ridge.
The initial weakness over the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday and
Wednesday will expand over the Southeast, providing an opening for
moisture and inverted troughing to move west.

Wednesday through Saturday a weakness or inverted mid-level trough
will shift west across the Northern Gulf. The weakness will allow
Gulf weather to remain unsettled and will keep the door open for
amplified moisture and enhanced rain chances for deep South Texas
and the RGV. Rain chances have been trending up for late week and
the early weekend. Rain chances on Friday and Saturday now range
between around 30 and 50 percent in the model consensus.

Toward the end of the weekend and early next week, a deeper mid-
level trough will develop over the East Coast, possibly
reestablishing instability farther east and hence, rain chances will
trend lower Sunday and beyond. All this is to say that while there
will be a dearth of significant weather systems in the long term
(Gulf tropical weather will be quiet through five days) daily
isolated to scattered marine, sea breeze, and general convection
will be possible.

Daytime high temps will remain near normal, generally ranging from
the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, to the mid to upper 90s across
the lower Valley, to triple digits along and west of I-69C/US 281.
Knock a few degrees off the high values Thursday through Sunday with
increase cloud cover and rain chances. Heat index values on
Wednesday will range between 103-108 degrees, but will be slightly
lower Thursday through Sunday.

Low temps will generally be in the mid to upper 70s inland to the
lower 80s near the coast. Fuels will remain dry to critically dry,
though sporadic daily rains will help lessen the burn capacity of
drier fuels. As well, weaker, light to moderate winds and slightly
higher relative humidity values through the week will undermine
enhanced wildfire growth and spread potential.

MARINE:
Now through Tuesday Night...Pressure gradient remains fairly loose
across the western Gulf of Mexico through the short- term, with
less thermal troughing evident over the continental interior. This
will drive light-to-moderate onshore (SE) flow, with winds not
expected to reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) levels
across the Lower Texas Coast. Mariners should be aware of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected periodically
through through Tuesday daytime, however, which could locally
enhance winds and seas.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Light to moderate southeast to
south winds and low to moderate seas will prevail. Marine weather
will remain unsettled with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms often present. While we do not expect small craft
advisory conditions, brief small craft should exercise caution
conditions may develop from time to time. Winds and seas will be
higher in and near thunderstorms, with cloud to water lightning also
present.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  93  78  93 /  10  10   0  30
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  78  96 /  10  20  10  30
HARLINGEN            77  97  77  97 /  10  10   0  30
MCALLEN              77 101  77 100 /   0  20   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  77 101 /   0  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  80  86 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

63-KC/Aviation

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
407 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-092115-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
407 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are expected during the
afternoon hours of the period.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday
through Saturday. The heavier or more persistent thunderstorms
will have the ability to produce nuisance flooding in low-lying
and poorly-draining areas, as well as ponding on local roads.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-092115-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
407 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.