Increasing monsoonal moisture over the forecast area combined with afternoon temperatures breaching convective temperature levels led to the development of isolated thunderstorms primarily east of the Caprock Escarpment. A thunderstorm strengthened directly over the Paducah (Cottle County) mesonet site which resulted in a downburst leading to severe wind gusts.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Increasing monsoonal moisture over the forecast area combined with afternoon temperatures breaching convective temperature levels led to the development of isolated thunderstorms primarily east of the Caprock Escarpment. A thunderstorm strengthened directly over the Paducah (Cottle County) mesonet site which resulted in a downburst leading to severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 5:14 PM CST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022/ SHORT TERM... Temperatures today will top off in the 90s and near 100 this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows richer mid-level moisture spreading in the CWA from the south which may help the development of some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Visible satellite shows a cumulus field developing across the forecast area as of 19Z. Inverted-v sounding profiles along with about 1000 J/Kg of SB CAPE across the CWA will allow thunderstorms that form to be capable of brief downpours and some gusty winds. Weak upper level flow will keep storm coverage minimal as they pulse up and down over one location. An upper level shortwave located over the Northern Great Plains will begin to move east across the northern CONUS today and tomorrow. A cold front associated with this trough is expected to approach the CWA tomorrow afternoon and bring greater chances for thunderstorm development. Frontal lifting along with adequate mid-level moisture content will allow thunderstorms to develop, especially in the northern portion of our CWA. The latitudinal position of the front will help determine which areas see the highest coverage of thunderstorms in the FA during the afternoon. If the front manages to extend further south, then coverage will be higher in the forecast area. Locations that receive precipitation during the day will have slightly cooler afternoon temperatures but for the most part, high temps are expected to be in the 90s areawide. LONG TERM... By Monday night, southward advancement of the cold front will largely have stalled, with the remnant boundary likely to linger across the far southern Texas Panhandle through Tuesday morning. As a result, a fairly robust low level theta-e gradient will persist across our region through Tuesday. With a modest upper shortwave rounding the edge of the upper ridge to our northwest, this setup appears favorable for an additional round of convection across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. This activity is still expected to remain unorganized and scattered in nature therefore requiring fairly broad PoPs concentrated over the northern half of the forecast area Tuesday through Tuesday night. Locally heavy rain remains plausible given PWATs nearing the climatological 90th percential for the date. Overall, the synoptic setup will remain fairly consistent through Thursday, with the core of the upper ridge centered over WY/CO and PWATs generally progged to remain near or above 1.5" across most of the area within weak northeasterly flow aloft. This robust moisture will be continuously reinforced throughout the week by a series of weak inverted troughs, which will also support additional rounds of convective development both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Once again, weak shear will be the limiting factor for more organized/widespread thunderstorm development, however there will be the potential for some degree of focused convection with plenty of opportunity for initiation along lingering or interacting surface boundaries. Potential rainfall amounts are still a point of significant uncertainty with this forecast. Even with healthy moisture, storms will struggle to organize and propagate with very weak flow aloft, which may result in limited coverage of the heaviest rainfall. Where exactly storms develop and concentrate will depend heavily on the mesoscale evolution of the surface wind field which in turn depends on the convective evolution of prior days. Unfortunately it is still too early to determine the favored areas for precip and thus PoPs remain broad, but at this time it appears the Tue-Wed timeframe has the highest potential for the most widespread activity. Ensemble agreement has increased slightly since yesterday, however the GEFS mean and the deterministic GFS remain drier outliers compared to broader consensus. Forecast soundings through the week depict deep midlevel moisture with skinny CAPE profiles atop a well-mixed subcloud layer suggesting the potential exists for both heavy rain and strong downburst winds, though both are expected to be very localized. Overall, expect daily scattered convection through Thursday, with further refinements in timing and coverage coming once confidence in the mesoscale details improves. Drier and hotter conditions will return by next weekend as the upper ridge expands and shifts back southeastward. /DWK && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 55
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 TXZ021>044-082000- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains this afternoon into tonight. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts to 60 mph and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of the region each day from Monday through Thursday. Localized heavy rain and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms, but widespread severe weather is not currently expected.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 133 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:15 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Paducah measured a severe wind gust of 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1037132.