Drought in Texas, April 26 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of MVFR/IFR (and some brief VFR) ceilings noted across the
CWA tonight in the wake of the cold front and all of its associ-
ated activity. The respite should be brief as the next shortwave
(and its associated showers and thunderstorms) is currently mak-
ing its way through South Central TX at this time. While there's
uncertainty related to how worked over the airmass is here along
with the ongoing trajectory of the strongest activity (on a more
SE track), not too keen on the idea of widespread development as
we head into the overnight hours. But that being said, will keep
with the mention of VCSH in for most of our terminals until this
system moves out. MVFR CIGS to lift by mid/late morning but BKN/
OVC mid and high clouds could linger through the afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Nice to see some much needed steady rain across the area without
the severe wx and flooding that many time accompanies these type
amounts. Have already made fcst adjustments thru the night.
Surface wind shift is in the process of making it through as is
the mid level vort/upper disturbance. Outflow boundary combined
with the convection in deep south Tx and Mexico has produced a
really tight pressure gradient along the coast with near gale
conditions. Will be doing another update there very shortly.

Otherwise, inland...combination of the above factors are not
positives for high precip chances overnight as NBM suggests.
However, the H85 flow will remain out of the south and H7 out of
the west til early to mid morning so sct/iso pockets of generally
light precip remain a possibility between now and then so will
maintain some lowish POPs which are more than likely overdone. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  73  55  79  60 /  40  30   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)              63  74  57  81  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            68  76  66  75  70 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
     Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&