Drought in Tennessee, August 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1253 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Best coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continues across Upper Cumberland Region with isolated to
scattered showers across southern locations. Blended CAMs
solution showing potential of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through nighttime hours across entire mid state
region as upper level troughing influences slightly deepen and
an upper level disturbances at least approaches if not moves
across western portions of our area by late overnight hours.
Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/
direction grids blending them with associated previously
forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. Current temperature
trends continue to be in line with forecasted lows. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

A weak surface boundary remains situated in the vicinity of Middle
Tennessee and is helping to focus a band of moisture along which
scattered showers have been propagating for most of the day. The
HRRR suggests that heavier echoes will develop later in the
afternoon as a shortwave swings across the mid state, but a
significant portion of the region looks to remain rain-free
overnight with perhaps some redevelopment toward morning. At this
time, the potential for even localized flooding appears to be
greatly reduced for all but the southwest corner of Middle
Tennessee, which experienced significant rainfall amounts
yesterday afternoon. Expect the atmosphere to dry out considerably
by Monday afternoon as the aforementioned boundary slips to our
south and takes the bulk of the moisture with it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

A more summer-like air mass will settle in starting on Tuesday.
This will give us afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90's
for a couple of days, along with heat indices topping out at 100+
and enough residual moisture for isolated/scattered afternoon
convection each day. However, additional cloud cover beginning on
Thursday will help moderate temperatures (but certainly not the
humidity) into next weekend. So while we transition back to more
familiar summertime temperatures, it appears that we should be
able to avoid any prolonged dry spells for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

CKV/BNA/MQY...Predominantly MVFR conditions through 16Z, with a
low cloud deck across the area. May begin to see some VCSH between
13Z and 18Z, mainly at BNA & MQY. Cigs will begin to lift after
18Z with VFR conditons expected thereafter. Southwesterly winds
are expected to pick up after 15Z, with gusts upwards of 15 to 20
kts possible through 02Z.

CSV...MVFR/IFR cigs expected through 15Z, with VCTS possible after
09Z which could drop vis as well. SHRA will begin to clear the
region after 20Z, with cigs slowly lifting thereafter. Gusty
southwesterly winds expected between 15Z and 00Z with gusts around
15 knots possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  74  95  73 /  50  30  30  10
Clarksville    92  74  95  72 /  40  20  20  10
Crossville     80  67  85  67 /  70  40  40  10
Columbia       88  71  95  71 /  60  20  30  10
Cookeville     82  69  87  70 /  70  30  40  10
Jamestown      81  66  84  67 /  70  40  40  10
Lawrenceburg   85  70  92  70 /  60  30  30  10
Murfreesboro   86  71  93  71 /  60  30  30  10
Waverly        92  71  96  71 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Adcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
941 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
941 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat index values for locations west of Cumberland PLateau
Region Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will range from
100 to around 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JB Wright