Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Ohio, June 8, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
603 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front stalls and lifts back to the north today as a warm
front. Another cold front arrives overnight tonight. Mainly dry
Thursday and Friday, rain returns Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Reduced fog coverage to be confined mainly to the valleys this
morning based on latest obs, otherwise forecast was on track.

As of 155 AM Wednesday...

This morning the region will be under the influence of a slow moving
cold frontal boundary expected to stall somewhere north of the Metro
Valley. Isolated to scattered elevated showers slowly wane as the
boundary becomes more diffuse into daybreak. North of this feature,
in the slightly cooler air may see a mix of low stratocumulus and
fog, while south of it will see mainly fog with some passing high
clouds through daybreak.

The cold front then reverses course as a warm front as it sails back
to the north this afternoon leaving a bulk of the region in a
largely uncapped warm sector. This should yield isolated to
scattered convection beginning as early as late morning and
continuing into the afternoon. Storm coverage is expected to
increase into evening with the approach of a shortwave trough and
trailing cold front later in the evening, although instability will
likely be waning before any associated ascent arrives in earnest.
The main threats with this activity will be damaging wind gusts with
downbursts along with locally heavy rain. Across our northern
counties where deep layer shear is a bit stronger, could see a
marginal hail threat in any rotating storms, although with wet bulb
zero heights approaching 13kft, not overly bullish on large hail.
Currently, the SPC has the entire forecast area outlooked in a
slight risk for wind and hail with this activity. While I would not
expect a risk downgrade with the 13Z update this morning mainly due
to fear of a ping-ponging forecast, an eventual trimming of
southern portions of the area to marginal may be warranted this
afternoon if current trends regarding slowing of the shortwave
continue.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms wane after cold frontal
passage through the night, with the front exiting to the east a
little after daybreak. May see some patchy fog developing into
morning in the more protected valleys that see a decent amount of
rainfall, but decent boundary layer flow should prompt more low
stratocumulus than fog for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

A few showers may linger along mountains Thursday morning, then
taper off from the west as a surface ridge builds in behind the
front. Clouds linger through most of the afternoon keeping
temperatures in the mid 70s across the lowlands and in the mid 60s
to low 70s for the mountains. A few breaks in the clouds during the
evening and overnight may allow a brief period of patchy fog to
develop Friday morning. Clouds will overspread the region once again
by Friday afternoon as the next front approaches from the west.
Temperatures will likely be a few degrees higher on Friday with a
little more sunshine than Thursday. A few pre-frontal showers may
reach Ohio and Kentucky counties by the end of the afternoon as the
next system races from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1231 PM Tuesday...

A broad trough aloft remains over the eastern states, with a
ridge across the southwest as we head to the weekend. The next area-
wide rainfall develops Friday night as another significant short
wave moves around the base of the trough. Models continue to
struggle with timing and placement for rain activity as there is
little focus due weak low pressure development at the surface.
Overall, rainfall will be weakly organized Friday night through
Saturday afternoon, then a surface trough slides across from the
west bringing better focus for rain showers heading into the
evening. The trough crosses east of the mountains by Sunday
morning.

Sunday through Tuesday warmer than normal temperatures return
as a ridge amplifies across the midwestern states. There will
be chances for showers mentioned across much of the region as a
few of the models, included in the consensus solution for
updates, are picking up on a short waves moving through the flow
overhead. There is high uncertainty for rain chances in the
extended as models are not in good agreement with aforementioned
features.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog and low stratus lifts and dissipates through 13Z this
morning with VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms
through this evening. Isolated convection will be possible in the
uncapped warm sector (covering a bulk of the area) late this morning
into this afternoon. Given hit and miss nature of this activity, do
not have anything in the TAFs at this time. As a shortwave trough
and associated cold front approach this evening and into the
overnight, will see increasing coverage of showers and storms - for
now largely have this addressed with VCTS in the TAFs.

As convection winds down behind the front overnight, will see
MVFR/IFR stratocumulus ceilings and perhaps some patchy fog
developing in more protected valleys. Some boundary layer flow would
suggest that any fog will not be widespread and will probably not
affect terminals sitting up off the valley floors.

Winds generally light and southerly today, turning westerly
overnight behind a cold front, except gusty and erratic near
thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/stratocumulus dissipation timing may
vary by an hour from the forecast. Isolated convection late this
morning into early this afternoon could yield brief IFR impacts
if it crosses a terminal.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR stratocumulus may linger beyond 12Z Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KH/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-090645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
239 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms will be present across the
area this afternoon and evening. The main threats are damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and locally heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.