Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 12:43 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low pressure trough will remain across the Ohio Valley through tonight providing scattered to numerous showers. Additional disturbances will continue to bring periods of precipitation into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No major changes made to the grids with this morning's update. Radar trends show a band of light to moderate rain showers over west central Ohio. Concern heading into peak heating today is the instability gradient to the southeast of these showers... particularly along the I-75/I-71 corridors. Guidance provides MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000J range with an atmosphere primed for efficient/heavy rain. Will need to watch for slow-moving or training storms as we go through the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Area wide convection should begin to decrease in intensity and coverage for several reasons. Much of the instability would have been used by afternoon convection, instability will be decreasing by sunset, and the trough axis (strongest lift) will have shifted east of the area. With that said, there are several high-resolution models indicating the potential for an intense MCV to move northeast through northern Kentucky and southern Ohio late tonight through the day on Friday. This slow moving feature would be trapped under weak steering flow, creating an opportunity for more focused heavy rain for locations along and south of the I-71 corridor. Due to the threat being dependent on a mesoscale feature, will hold off on a flood watch until confidence increases on this potential. Thursday's rainfall coupled with slow moving downpours would certainly create a better chance for observing flash flooding. The forecast headed through the rest of the day on Friday will be largely dependent on the evolution of the MCV. For now, have the highest PoPs along and southeast of I-71, especially during the morning and early afternoon. With diurnal heating, PoPs increase everywhere through the late afternoon before gradually decreasing into Friday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Friday evening, an extremely nebulous upper level pattern will remain in place over the Ohio Valley and southeastern CONUS. There is simply very little flow overall, leaving a stagnant weather pattern over the region heading into the weekend. At the surface, a weak cold front will be unlikely to make significant progress southeast into the ILN CWA, with a moist and unstable air mass over the ILN CWA (and precipitable water values still somewhere near 2"). Through the weekend -- Saturday and Sunday -- convective activity will have a significant diurnal component, with forcing on the weaker side of the equation. Storms could certainly persist into the overnight while feeding on instability alone. Nonetheless, especially with the moist profile and poor lapse rates, this is more of a heavy rain scenario than a severe scenario. Could not rule out a strong or severe storm, primarily with a wind threat, but the greater concern will be for slow- moving storms producing heavy rainfall. Highs over the weekend are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. By Monday, there will be a little more definition to the broader pattern, with ridging off the southeast coast and troughing moving southward into the Upper Midwest. This will only make the pattern over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley even more favorable for convective development, with broad forcing from the upper trough, low-level convergence in the confluent flow into the region (and south of a cold front moving through WI/MI), and a constant feed of theta-e into the region from the south. Model hints at when this entire setup will finally escape the region are not terribly optimistic until perhaps the middle of the week, but Mon/Tue/Wed appear to have a rather high chance of showers and storms, and conditions will remain favorable for slow motions and heavy rainfall. That, plus the general warm/moist conditions (though probably not to heat advisory level) will be the main story heading into next week. This is a low confidence forecast, but with at least some solutions suggesting this pattern may clear out later in the week, PoPs will be kept much lower from Wednesday night into Thursday and beyond. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Numerous rain showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue through the first several hours of the TAF period. Due to the tropical nature of the atmosphere, ceilings will occasionally drop below 3,000 feet during this time. In addition, visibility will drop below IFR thresholds during the heavier showers. It appears there will be a decreasing trend in coverage of the showers after 00Z... but another surge of moisture late tonight will likely cause more widespread rainfall with embedded thunder. Winds will generally remain southerly through the period, though they may become variable at times around thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through early next week. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 514 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-050915- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery- 514 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few storms may contain damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-054>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-088- 050915- Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton- Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Delaware- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield- Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland- Adams-Pike-Scioto- 514 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few storms may contain damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be possible. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat index values between 95 and 100. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Friday night. Heavy rain and localized flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
212 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022
OHZ062-071-041845-
Warren OH-Greene OH-
212 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WARREN
AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 212 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Waynesville,
moving north at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning, and very heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Xenia, Bellbrook, Yellow
Springs, Wright-Patterson Afb, Cedarville, Waynesville, Wilberforce,
Spring Valley, Clifton, Centerville, Mount Holly, Roxanna, John Bryan
State Park, Oldtown, Greene County Airport and Trebein.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.
When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3984 8394 3983 8394 3982 8385 3982 8383
3980 8383 3979 8378 3957 8391 3957 8398
3952 8398 3954 8411 3976 8410 3984 8409
3984 8406 3985 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 185DEG 27KT 3959 8406
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KCThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were uprooted and damaged near the Greene County Fish and Game Association.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1050948.