Dust Devil in Nevada, June 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
237 PM PDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A brief monsoonal push will allow for a mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms Thursday. A high builds in the region for
the weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday Afternoon through Friday Evening

A low off the the southern California coast will aid in a monsoonal
push into the Silver State from the south. Isolated rain showers
are forecasted across southern portions of northern Nye county
this afternoon and evening. Little is expected in the way of QPF.
Highs today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
Lows will be in the 50s. Thursday, more moisture surges north
allowing for a mixed mode of wet and dry thunderstorms. A similar
airmass is currently over southern Nevada and is producing these
results. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
central Nevada and isolated to scattered showers across northern
Nevada, before the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm
threat makes it further north later in the afternoon and evening.
Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in the 80s, with lows in
the 40s and 50s. These storms have the potential for strong
downburst winds. Isolated gusts of 60-70 mph are possible with the
stronger downbursts.

As the offshore low is absorbed into the upper level flow and
moves onshore, shower activity lingers across eastern Nevada for
Friday. With monsoonal moisture cut off, drier condtions are
expected for Friday. A ridge begins to build later in the day
Friday. Highs will be generally in the 80s to lower 90s, with
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

A low pressure trough is forecast to move east across the
northern rockies early Saturday, allowing the upper level high
pressure ridge to reposition along the west coast Saturday into
Sunday, with this idea being supported in the WPC Cluster
analysis tool. This pattern will be leaving some meager amounts
of mid-level moisture for isolated high based thunderstorms and
virga showers during this time period. Since most of the flow will
be from the west northwest, subtropical moisture will be held
over far southern Nevada and Arizona.

Then by late Monday 00 UTC Tuesday, the WPC cluster analysis
supports the ridge axis to begin to move east so that it is over
head during this time and then by late Tuesday 00 UTC Wednesday,
the ridge has repositioned to allow for the increase potential for
the subtropical moisture to come northward into portions of
central and northeast Nevada, which could lead to an uptick in
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, maybe some dry by Wednesday
of next week. High temperature Saturday and Sunday are forecast to
range from 80s to lower 90s across the area, and then heading
into next week high temperatures are forecast to increase slightly
into the mid 80s to mid 90s with the weather pattern discussed
above.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. Late afternoon breezes are expected over central
and NW Nevada including terminals KTPH and KELY. Showers in the vicinity
of KTPH this evening. Then on Thursday as the low opens into a
trough and lifts over central and northeast Nevada, afternoon
high based dry isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
with gusty outflow winds.
&&

&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds across all fire zones generally light with
some gusty afternoon winds possible Thursday afternoon. RH's begin
to surge Thursday as monsoonal moisture arrives. Isolated showers
are expected for zone 426 this afternoon. For Thursday, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected for zones 427 and 425 and
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for 426, and 424.
Storms across central Nevada, in zones 425, 426, 427, 424 may be
drier in nature later in the day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are also possible across 438,469, and 470. These
storms are expected to be a mix of wet and dry, with wet storms
being slightly favored across parts of central Nevada. In general
these storms are expected to produce rainfall less than a tenth of
an inch with some areas picking up more. Any thunderstorms that
do form can produce gusty and erratic outflow winds.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

91/85/85/91