Hail in Nebraska, July 7, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Current KCYS radar loop this afternoon shows scattered showers
with a few isolated thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming. The
stronger storms are along or just east of the I-25 corridor with
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Further west, a drier airmass is moving into central Wyoming which
is limiting deep convection. Expect this trend to continue into
this evening with any strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
confined to western Nebraska over the next several hours. Although
MLCAPE is around 1000 j/kg and should increase a little more
through late afternoon, Bulk Shear is minimal and generally under
20 knots with maybe 25-30 knots of effective shear near Chadron
and Alliance. Thunderstorm organization will be difficult under
these conditions so we're mainly expecting gusty winds and
frequent lightning with this thunderstorms through this evening.
Unlike the last several days, activity should diminish around
sunset this evening. Models are showing a very low potential for
fog or low stratus clouds across the plains, so kept out of
tonight's forecast for now.

For Friday, all models show the upper level high strengthening
east of the four corners region with a ridge of high pressure
extending northward over Wyoming. Any shower and thunderstorm
activity will likely be more isolated compared to the last several
days due to drier air moving eastward into the High Plains. Models
indicate PW's lowering below 1 inch towards the Nebraska border
with PW's lower than 0.50 west of the Laramie Range. SPC maintains
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the eastern
plains, but expect the primary concern to be strong gusty winds
due to inverted V soundings and cloud bases around 10k to 14k feet
AGL. High temperatures will start to climb into the upper 80s to
mid 90s as the upper level high develops to the south.

Dry weather expect this weekend as the upper level high drifts to
the northeast into Colorado and southern Wyoming. 700mb
temperatures will climb above 20c, which roughly translates to
widespread highs in the 90s across southeast Wyoming, and 100 to
105 for the lower elevations (below 500 feet) including western
Nebraska. A few record highs will be either broke or at least tied
for the date. Some convection might try to develop across the
mountains Saturday afternoon, but the dry airmass and ample
midlevel subsidence should keep any convection shallow and/or
brief.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Sunday...Westerly flow aloft prevails. Slightly cooler across our
northern counties and a bit warmer across the south. There may be
enough heating and mid level moisture to spark isolated
thunderstorms in the evening to the east of a Lusk to Sidney line.

Monday...With a slight increase in low and mid level moisture due to
the return of the monsoon, and a frontal boundary along the
mountains, we expect isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms primarily along and east of Interstate 25.
Cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front, though still quite
warm.

Tuesday...The flow aloft will be northwest, and with the frontal
boundary in our counties and adequate low and mid level moisture, we
anticipate isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms once again, mainly east of Interstate 25.

Wednesday/Thursday...With the ridge aloft building overhead
producing a capping inversion at mid levels, and with limited low
and mid level moisture, shower and thunderstorm chances will be
minimal, along with the return of hot temperatures in the 90s to
near 100 degrees by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity until 01Z. Wind
gusts to 23 knots until 01Z, then gusts to 20 knots at Rawlins after
15Z Friday.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity from 21Z to
04Z. Wind gusts to 21 knots from 21Z to 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Minimal fire weather concerns through Saturday with somewhat
elevated concerns on Sunday due to low relative humidities and
marginal winds. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue
today and Friday with a few stronger storms possible east of the
Interstate 25 corridor. Hot temperatures and dry conditions likely
this weekend.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
440 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-081045-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
440 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of the Nebraska
panhandle...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a marginal risk of isolated strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Main hazards include
strong, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Ponding of water
on road surfaces and in urban areas is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

There is a marginal risk of isolated strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms on Friday. Main hazards include strong, gusty
winds and small hail.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
213 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

WYZ117>119-072100-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
East Laramie County WY-
213 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Laramie
County through 300 PM MDT...

At 212 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northeast of Ranchettes to 11 miles
southeast of South Greeley. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Burns, Hillsdale, Gun Barrel, Carpenter and Ranchettes.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 369 and
391.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 10472 4148 10427 4100 10423 4100 10468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 276DEG 14KT 4136 10464 4102 10461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
307 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

WYZ108-117-118-072145-
Goshen County WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
307 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Goshen
and north central Laramie Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 306 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Whitaker, or 29 miles north of Cheyenne, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Goshen
and north central Laramie Counties.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 38 and
46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 10494 4165 10492 4165 10449 4141 10457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 282DEG 16KT 4158 10481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
310 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NEZ054-WYZ119-072145-
Kimball NE-East Laramie County WY-
310 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kimball
and southeastern Laramie Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 310 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pine Bluffs, or 23 miles west of Kimball, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluffs and Panorama Point.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 396 and 402.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 1 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 10418 4122 10386 4100 10384 4100 10419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 268DEG 15KT 4111 10409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
328 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NEZ095-096-WYZ108-072200-
North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-Goshen County WY-
328 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Sioux
and northeastern Goshen Counties through 400 PM MDT...

At 327 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Prairie Center, or 21 miles north of Torrington,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Sioux
and northeastern Goshen Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4240 10428 4251 10416 4239 10385 4219 10408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 308DEG 15KT 4238 10417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
355 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NEZ095-096-072230-
North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-
355 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Sioux
County through 430 PM MDT...

At 354 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Prairie Center, or 29 miles southeast of Lusk, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Sioux
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4241 10405 4257 10405 4262 10398 4262 10384
      4252 10365 4232 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 314DEG 11KT 4252 10400

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
440 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NEZ002-072315-
Dawes NE-
440 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Dawes County
through 515 PM MDT...

At 440 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Slim Butte to near Fort
Robinson Campground. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chadron, Crawford, Chadron Campground, Whitney Lake, Red Cloud
Campground, Chadron Airport and Whitney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4244 10338 4265 10347 4279 10347 4301 10321
      4300 10280 4283 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 325DEG 22KT 4304 10307 4275 10347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brothers