Drought in Nebraska, August 1 to 31, 2022

Name: Drought in Nebraska, August 1 to 31, 2022
Start: 2022-08-01T00:00
End: 2022-08-31T23:59
Location: Nebraska

August 1 to 31, 2022 · NWS GID · 10 events in 10 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor (USDM), with sections of three northeastern counties also seeing the introduction of Extreme Drought (D3) late in the month.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

For at least some portion of August 2022, at least parts of 17 of the 24 South Central Nebraska counties were assigned Severe Drought (D2) by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), with sections of three northeastern counties also seeing the introduction of Extreme Drought (D3) late in the month. This marked the seventh consecutive month with D2 plaguing parts of South Central Nebraska and also marked the return of limited D3 following a two month reprieve (since mid-June). Unfortunately, following what had just been somewhat encouraging precipitation trends in July (during which roughly two-thirds of the area measured above normal rainfall), things took a major turn for the worse in August, with several long-time NWS stations enduring one of their Top-5 driest Augusts on record (more on this below). Focusing on county-specific USDM drought category details, August opened with at least portions of 10 counties assigned D2: Dawson, Buffalo, Howard, Nance, Merrick, Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Adams and Furnas. Outside of these worst-off areas, considerable coverage of Moderate Drought (D1) existed mainly west of a Genoa-Clay Center-Franklin line. Meanwhile, the overall-best conditions resided within several far eastern and southeastern local counties, featuring a varied mix of Abnormally Dry (D0) and no drought categories whatsoever...with particularly most of York, Fillmore and Thayer counties indicated as drought-free. Through most of the month, drought categories actually remained quite stable despite the worsening dryness. However, the very last USDM issuance of the month (valid on the 30th) featured an inevitable and widespread one-category degradation across much of the area. The net result was a significant expansion of especially D2 and D1, with D2 now prevailing within most counties from the Tri Cities northward and westward. In addition to the 10 aforementioned counties that started the month at least partially-assigned D2, the late-month degradation brought D2 into parts of at least seven more: Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Polk, Hall, Harlan and Franklin. In addition, a narrow stripe of D3 was introduced to portions of Nance, Howard and Merrick counties, where long-term precipitation deficits were most dire. Even in the better off far eastern counties along the Highway 81 corridor, at least D0 was in place by month's end.

Turning to August 2022 rainfall details, there was very little good news to be found. The majority of South Central Nebraska only received somewhere between 0.25-1.50. For much of the area it was a Top-5 driest August, including at the official Tri Cities airport stations, where Kearney had its outright-driest August (0.13), Grand Island its 2nd-driest (0.45) and Hastings its 5th-driest (0.46). In addition to Kearney, a few other official NWS stations that set new August records for dryness included Holdrege (0.22), Ord (0.20) Ravenna (0.11) and Canaday Steam Plant (six miles south-southeast of Lexington...0.23). From a broader perspective across the entire 24-county area, roughly 99 percent of it received at least slightly below normal precipitation, around 95% saw less than half of normal (generally less than 1.66), roughly 70% of locations received less than one-fourth of normal (generally less than 0.83) and around half of the area tallied LESS THAN ONE-SIXTH of normal (generally less than 0.55)! The primary tiny fraction of the area that observed slightly above normal precipitation was east-central York County, where a pair of NeRAIN observers in the Waco area reported 3.50-4.00. In extreme contrast, some of the very-driest NeRAIN/NWS station totals featured a paltry 0.08 in Cairo, the aforementioned 0.11 at Ravenna, 0.13 in Spalding (along with Kearney airport) and 0.15 in Dannebrog.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1228 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Overall quiet conditions are in place across the area this
afternoon, with satellite imagery showing most locations seeing
plenty of sunshine. Aloft, upper air and satellite data show
continued northwesterly flow, set up between broader troughing
through the Midwest/Gulf Coast regions and ridging extending
through the Rockies. Satellite imagery also shows an embedded
disturbance making its way out of the Dakotas and into MN this
afternoon, with the any associated precip driven primarily by it
remaining well off to the NE of the CWA. This disturbance is
pushing a sfc frontal boundary south into the Central Plains this
afternoon, at 3PM had sagged into north central Nebraska. Ahead of
the front, where we have been through the day, winds have been
SWrly and generally light, around 10 MPH, though there has been an
occasional gusts near 20 MPH. North of the front is a switch to
NWrly winds. This front doesn't have a notable change in temps
associated with it, but does have a sharper change in
dewpoints...at 3PM ODX/BBW were right around 70 degrees, just a
bit north toward ONL/TIF readings are in the low-mid 50s. Through
the rest of this afternoon/evening, can't rule out some
isolated/scattered storms developing along this sfc boundary,
mainly driven by peak heating in an area with better lapse rates
and along a higher instability axis. Models generally showing
activity to mainly areas of SW NE/NW KS, though potentially
clipping western portions of our CWA. Kept PoPs pretty low, some
models show activity missing us completely. Models show overall
coverage of activity struggling with the better upper forcing well
northeast of the area and warmer mid-level temps/capping, and
should wane with the loss of daytime heating. Portions of the CWA
remain the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area, any thunderstorm activity
would have plenty of instability to tap into...though overall
deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Some marginally severe
wind gusts/hail would be possible with any stronger thunderstorms.

Late tonight into Monday...

Through the overnight hours, as that MN upper level disturbance
continues pushing east into the Great Lakes region, the
accompanying sfc boundary stalls out and weakens. Light, and
more variable winds are expected to develop as a weak sfc ridge
slides through. The main uncertainty late tonight into the morning
hours Monday lies with precipitation chances. There continues to
be differences between models with whether another subtle upper
level disturbance sliding in from the NW will be enough to bring
another shot of storms to mainly northern portions of the CWA.
Have slight chance PoPs generally along/north of a line from Loup
City to York from 09Z through mid-morning. If that activity does
in fact develop/move in, couldn't rule out some elevated strong-
marginally severe storms.

Uncertainties in the forecast tonight carry right over into the
daytime/evening hours on Monday. Expecting winds to turn more
easterly then SErly with time, but outflow from activity crossing
the area late tonight into the morning lessens confidence in
exactly how the sfc pattern sets up in its wake. Expect that once
this wave passes through, things would dry out across the CWA, but
there are questions then how that activity affects things for
later in the day/evening...as models once again don't have the
best agreement with whether or not we are impacted by another
round of scattered thunderstorm activity. Don't have much
confidence in the low chance PoPs in the forecast, which are
currently set up again over northern portions of the CWA. Current
forecast has 90s returning CWA-wide, but especially for
central/northern portions of the CWA, that could be pretty
optimistic that it gets that warm.

Tuesday through the rest of the week...

Main story for Tuesday lies with the return of hot temperatures
across the region. Models are in pretty good agreement showing a
hotter airmass associated with upper level ridging slide east into
the region ahead of an approaching trough axis moving in from the
NWrn CONUS. At the sfc, winds ahead of this next system are
expected to turn more SSWrly through the day, aiding in mixing out
dewpoints/increasing heating. Current forecast highs remain in
the upper 90s/near 100, with widespread max heat index values in
the 100-105 degree range. Expecting the daytime hours to be dry,
with precip chances along this front focused mainly mid-
evening/overnight. Much warmer mid-level temps look to keep a
stronger cap in place to overcome initially, with better forcing
moving through the overnight hours. Mid-week temps are forecast to
be a touch 'cooler' than Tuesday, but are still forecast to climb
into the 90s. Periodic storm chances continue into Wed/Thur while
the upper level pattern is more progressive/zonal in
nature...with the latter portion of the period drying out as upper
ridging builds back north. More mid/upper 90s are forecast for
Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Quiet
forecast with satellite showing just a few high clouds around the
area. This trend will continue through tomorrow but with a few mid
level clouds.

Winds are light and variable overnight and through the morning
hours tomorrow before picking up out of the south tomorrow
afternoon to around 10 kts. Winds will then become light and
variable again tomorrow night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 8:56 PM CST, 3 hours 4 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
956 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-011200-
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-
Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-
Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
956 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Although it is quite likely that the vast majority of the outlook
area will remain thunderstorm-free, there remains a slight chance
for storms in a few counties west and southwest of the Nebraska
Tri Cities mainly prior to midnight, and also another slight
chance for storm development very late tonight/early Monday
morning mainly within Nebraska counties north of Interstate 80.

Should storms develop, severe weather appears fairly unlikely,
although isolated occurrences of gusty winds and small hail
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this week,
mainly Monday into Monday evening, then again Tuesday evening
into Thursday morning. There will be a chance for some storms
Monday afternoon and evening to be strong to severe, with large
hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats.

Hot temperatures will be one of the main stories this week,
especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat index values of 100 to 105
degrees are forecast, with Tuesday currently forecast to be the
overall hottest day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

If thunderstorms do manage to develop within the area, spotters
are encouraged to report any possible instances of hail or strong
thunderstorm winds that might occur.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

KSZ005>007-017>019-011200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-
956 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this week,
mainly Tuesday night into Thursday morning.

Hot temperatures will be one of the main stories this week,
especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat index values of 100 to 105
degrees are forecast, with Tuesday currently forecast to be the
overall hottest day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Nance

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Nance forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.397, -97.992 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Merrick

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Merrick forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.170, -98.038 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Howard

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Howard forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.220, -98.517 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dawson

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dawson forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.870, -99.820 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Buffalo

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Buffalo forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.855, -99.075 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Gosper

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Gosper forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.515, -99.831 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Phelps

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phelps forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.511, -99.414 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kearney

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kearney forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.507, -98.948 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Adams

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Adams forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.525, -98.501 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Furnas

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Furnas forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.177, -99.912 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Nebraska in 2022 Every state in 2022 This day in weather history Warnings in Nebraska, August 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1044263, 1044264, 1044265, 1044266, 1044267, 1044268, 1044269, 1044270, 1044271, 1044272.