A warm front was in place across the state during the morning hours on May 6th, setting the stage for increased moisture and warm air into the region. By the afternoon, a nearby low pressure system began to occlude, furthering the lift and instability across the state.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm front was in place across the state during the morning hours on May 6th, setting the stage for increased moisture and warm air into the region. By the afternoon, a nearby low pressure system began to occlude, furthering the lift and instability across the state. Showers and thunderstorms developed across much of the region throughout the day, becoming strong to severe by mid-day. Flooding and wind damage was reported throughout the afternoon and into the evening. A tornado was also reported and confirmed near General Burnside in Pulaski County during the early afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 10:35 AM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1135 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 A potent late spring upper low over IL and surface reflection near Paducah, KY will slowly shift into KY this afternoon. The warm front front from last night is now northeast of the forecast area, leaving eastern Kentucky in the warm sector while the low’s cold front is approaching western Kentucky. Radar shows showers and storms continuing to drift through this morning and the amount of afternoon clearing and low-level destabilization remains in question. Large Hail: The parameter space appears quite favorable for scattered severe (quarter size or larger) hail this afternoon/early evening, mainly southeast of I-64. Model sounding profiles generally show MUCAPE values reaching between 1500-2000 J/kg, with 35-45 kt of EBWD south of I-64. The 0-3 km SRH also increases toward the southeast ranging from 50 m2/s2 along I-64 to 200 m2/s2 near the VA border. This will be supportive of severe hail with any sustained discrete /semi-discrete supercells. The NAM/GFS/RAP show CAPE values peaking at 600-900 J/kg in the -10 to -30C hail growth region. Values this large have been associated with golf-ball sized hail in discrete supercells. However, marginal 700-500 mb lapse rates (6-7 C/km ) and 40-50 knots of sfc-8 km shear will keep that threat minimal. Overall, expect scattered instances of around quarter-sized hail southeast of I-64 with the best chance for discrete supercells and largest hail threat at locations along/southeast of of the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor. While not likely, any persistent strong supercell that remains discrete over far southeast Kentucky could produce up to golf-ball size hail. Tornado: The instability and moisture parameters are favorable for tornadoes this afternoon/early evening, especially south of the I-64 corridor, but the low-level shear/helicity profiles are lacking. In particular, low-level hodographs generally become more unidirectional through the day and that will lead to 0-1 km SRH values in the 50 to 100 m^2/s^-2 range, highest values again over southeast Kentucky. (Values of 100 m^2/s^-2 or greater are typically associated with an increased threat for tornadoes from supercells). With that being said, 0-1 km SRH could be locally enhanced by any boundaries that linger from the ongoing convection and thus will need to be monitored through the afternoon. Additionally, discrete convective modes will be hard to maintain given the strong forcing and uncapped environment. Overall, the greatest threat for a tornado would again be along/south of the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 Corridor, coincident with the greatest hail threat. Further north, a tornadic supercell, if it were to occur, would likely be rooted along boundaries established by earlier day convection. Damaging Wind: While there is certainly potential for damaging winds this afternoon/evening, the threat appears more tempered by marginal DCAPE, SBCAPE, and PWATs. With that being said, dynamical supercell processes could lead to scattered strong to damaging wind gusts. The threat for more organized linear storm modes appear to remain over Tennessee, but if the system tracks a little further north, a stronger straight-line wind threat conceivably could materialize over those counties near/south of the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor. Flash Flood: Convective showers and storms have already dropped 1 to 2 inches of rainfall earlier today from McCreary/Whitley counties NE to Johnson/Martin counties. The best 850 mb transport and associated axis of convergence should sink southeast of the area through early to mid-afternoon before the focus of better upper level divergence and low-level convergence, closer to the low center, shifts associated steadier rainfall northwest toward I-64, closer to the low center where storm motions will be slower. Deep warm cloud layer rain processes could yield 2 inches in a 3-hour period at those locations which experience the most persistent showers. Across the far southeast where storm motions will be more rapid, supercell-enhanced rain processes could still lead to a flash flood threat despite generally drier than normal conditions over the last 30 days. The weakest flash flood guidance (around or under 2 inches in 3 hours) is found across most of the Cumberland, upper Licking, and upper North Fork Kentucky rivers. In general, there is a threat for isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly at those locations which experience training into tonight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 No major changes to the forecast today. Bulk of the showers and storms moved north of the area earlier this morning as the warm front lifted north. After a brief lull in precip, starting to see some additional development of showers over the SW portions of the forecast area. Big question for today remains how much destabilization can occur this morning before the main bulk of convection this afternoon. Updated near term T/Td and winds to reflect the latest obs. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 An active day ahead for Eastern KY. An upper level low over the Mid Mississippi valley and associated surface low will move across the OH valley today. Warm front associated with the low is slowly lifting north across the area early this morning, which is touching off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temps and dew points are starting the day off in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cold front associated with the low moving into the OH valley will cross the area this afternoon into evening, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the front. The big question still remains how much destabilization can occur between this mornings showers and storms and the later convection. HREF ensemble mean surface CAPE is projected to be 500-1000 J/Kg this afternoon, with 0-3km SRH off 100-200 m2/s2 across far SE KY and along the border with TN. WBZ levels will also be falling during the day as the upper level low moves closer to the area, and freezing levels will only be about 9-10k ft. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe threats today, especially in discrete cells. An isolated tornado or two also can't be ruled out. While widespread flooding is not expected to be a concern due to fairly dry antecedent conditions, some isolated flash flooding is certainly possible especially if multiple storms pass over the same area. Despite being in the warm sector today, clouds and precip will hold afternoon high temps to just the lower to middle 70s. The cold front crosses the area this evening which will bring an end to the severe threat. The surface and upper level low will move east of the area, with wrap-around moisture bringing low stratus and patchy fog into the area overnight into Saturday, and also keep showers in the forecast. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 50s. The upper level low will slowly move east into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Low level moisture will be slow to scour out from NW to SE throughout the day, and expect much of Eastern KY to remain mostly cloudy to overcast with periods of light rain and drizzle. It'll be a very cool day for early May, with afternoon high temps struggling to reach the lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 The long term will start with an upper level trough exiting the area and ridging moving in from the west. Another positively tilted trough will be located across the western portion of the CONUS and across western Canada. This pattern will gradually amplify through early next week, eventually developing into a rather strong Omega block pattern across the CONUS. The deepening trough across the west coast will becoming more neutrally oriented as it digs southward into Mexico and the ridging amplifies across the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into northeast Canada. The trough originally exiting our area will stall off the east coast. The pattern will begin to break down toward the end of the work week as short wave energy ridges over the ridge and an area of zonal flow develops across east-central Canada. The trough off the east coast will become cut off from the main flow and will regress back towards the coast. Sensible weather will start out with a chance of showers Saturday night as an upper level trough exits the area. Heights aloft will rebound in the wake of the tough and as ridging developing to the west takes control of the area for most of the long term period. Sunday will be the coolest day of the period with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs for the remainder of the period will reach into the low to mid 80s as high pressure dominates the area. Lows will drop to around 50 Saturday night while a ridge to valley split develops Sunday night with valleys dropping into the mid 40s and the ridges staying near 50. Given the expected clearing a ridge/valley split is likely but the exact spread will continue to be adjusted as the period nears. Fog will also be possible under clear skies and subsidence overhead. This pattern will persists under the influence of high pressure though, fog chances will lessen later in the week as drier conditions persist. The ECMWF EFI continues to hint at a potentially record breaking heat wave across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Great lakes region. However, it is not likely that we see any high temperature records broken next week as the center of the ridge stays well to our west. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 Poor aviation conditions expected today and tonight as a system moves across the OH valley. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of an approaching cold front today, especially this afternoon into the early evening. Ceilings will bounce around early from VFR to MVFR but expect some brief periods of IFR during periods of heavy rain. Winds are light and variable to start the period, but with stronger winds aloft wind shear is in at all locations for the first few hours. After that, S/SW winds 5-10 kts with wind gusts of 15-20 kts are expected from late morning through early this evening. Low pressure and associated cold front move east of the area tonight, with low stratus expected on the backside of the system. Ceilings will likely lower to IFR overnight into early Saturday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && MESOSCALE...GEERTSON UPDATE...CMF SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...BATZ AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1115 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-071815- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1115 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected through late tonight. Some of the storms, especially during the afternoon and evening, may be severe, with large hail the primary threat along with a risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of flash flooding through the afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of large hail, wind damage, or flooding through tonight. CMF/GREIF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
952 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022
KYZ115>117-061415-
Clay KY-Perry KY-Leslie KY-
952 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Leslie,
central Perry and east central Clay Counties through 1015 AM EDT...
At 951 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hosea, or near Hyden, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Thousandsticks around 955 AM EDT.
Hyden, Kaliopi, Wendover, Shoal and Cinda around 1000 AM EDT.
Dryhill, Toulouse, Wooton, Confluence, Smilax and Buckhorn Lake
S.P. around 1005 AM EDT.
Avawam, Mosley Bend, Krypton and Frew around 1010 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Hazard, Diablock,
Lamont and Chavies.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3702 8347 3716 8361 3734 8340 3734 8338
3737 8336 3736 8335 3738 8333 3738 8331
3739 8330 3718 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 230DEG 35KT 3714 8347
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
VORSTThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:06 UTC.
18 thunderstorm wind, 7 flash flood, 4 flood, 1 tornado, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
About 100 yards of Highway 1427, two miles from the intersection with Highway 23, was blocked due to water flowing over the road. The water was at least six inches deep, and may have been deeper in a few spots.
Images from a social media report show a flooded roadway near 2665 Cumberland Falls Highway in Corbin, KY. The image shows a car trapped in a roadside ditch.
A railroad underpass on Roy Kidd Avenue in Corbin was closed due to flooding.
A large portion of Master Street near North Corbin was closed due to flooding.
NWS verified an EF-1 tornado that touched down on Hardwick Road in Bronston, and moved northeast, lifting in the community of Antioch. Two injuries were sustained when a mobile home was flipped on Hardwick Road. The tornado had maximum winds of 110 mph with a path length of just over 3 miles and a path width of 100 yards. A video of the tornado 1 mile NNW of Tateville was also posted on social media.
A person was injured by thunderstorm wind gusts in Burnside.
A thunderstorm wind gust snapped a hardwood tree, causing it to fall onto fencing and the porch of the home.
At least 6 inches of water from Elk Creek was flowing across a roadway near Inez.
Water was reported flowing over Highway 1427 near the community of Bonanza.
Large trees were blown down near the community of Acorn. One tree fell on a mobile home near Harris-Linville Road, causing structural damage.
Trees were blown down and onto Highway 490 in East Bernstadt.
Multiple trees were blown down between the 5000 and 5200 blocks of Highway 25 in East Bernstadt. A house was damaged by a fallen tree. An RV awning was also flipped over and damaged.
Trees were blown down and an outbuilding was damaged near the community of Egypt.
A tree was blown down on Union Church Road near Bumcomb.
A tree was blown down in the 5000 block of Highway 490 near the community of Oakley.
A tree was blown down and onto a roadway near the community of Hare.
A large tree was blown down and onto Highway 421 near the Clay/Leslie county line in Peabody.
Trees were blown down and a camper was overturned in the community of Turkey and the Turkey Creek vicinity.
A tree was blown down and onto Town Hill Road, on the Highway 30W side, just outside of Jackson. Report relayed via social media.
A large tree was blown down and onto Highway 1427.
A large tree was reported down near the community of Green Road.
A large tree was blown down near the community of Tomahawk.
Trees were blown down and onto power lines near Calf Creek, resulting in power outages at nearby locations.
A tree was blown down and onto a road near McClure.
Trees were blown down onto power lines in the community of Hode.
At least six inches of water was seen flowing over Wolverine Road near the intersection of Highway 30 near Elkatawa.
At least six inches of water was seen flowing across Highway 1110 along the north of the Kentucky River near Bush Branch.
A mudslide occurred along KY-15 just north of Walmart in Jackson.
A social media post showed water flowing across Puncheon Creek Road near the community of Chenowee.
A motorist was trapped by flash flood waters at the intersection of Highway 70 and Charles Elgin Road near Woodstock. A water rescue had to be performed.
Water was flowing over Highway 52 near Irvine.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2022Warnings in Kentucky, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1017707, 1017628, 1017634, 1017696, 1017646, 1017663, 1017670, 1017678, 1017709, 1017672, 1017691, 1017692, 1017705, 1017706, 1017694, 1017695, 1017713, 1017715, 1017716, 1017711, 1031640, 1017680, 1017681, 1017689, 1017690, 1017717, 1017718, 1017719, 1017721, 1017675, 1017712.