An isolated severe thunderstorm occurred during the mid afternoon hours, associated with a surge of higher dew points northward. The storm erupted along this effective front over northwest Kentucky, which was beneath a region of warm moist wind flow at 850 mb.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm occurred during the mid afternoon hours, associated with a surge of higher dew points northward. The storm erupted along this effective front over northwest Kentucky, which was beneath a region of warm moist wind flow at 850 mb. Large hail accompanied this storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 5:24 AM CST, 6 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Confidence in the convective potential today into this evening is not great. However, whatever does develop will come to an end from the southwest tonight, as 700mb temperatures of 11-12C overspread the region and effectively shut down any remaining convection. The 00Z model consensus is for the cap to hold Friday despite SBCAPE values well over 3000J/kg. South winds will likely require a Lake Wind Advisory throughout the area Friday, and a full on Wind Advisory is not out of the question for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. While the cap will begin to erode Friday night, we should remain dry given that the surface cold front will remain well to our northwest, as will any mid/upper-level forcing. The NBM does bring some small PoPs back into far northwest portions of the forecast area Friday night, but there is no QPF at this time. As for convection today into this evening, tried to follow the HREF scenario. Some isolated showers or storms will be possible in the south this morning. The HREF then brings convection associated with the cluster of storms currently over northwest Oklahoma eastward through our entire region this afternoon. Some scattered convection may linger across the northeast half of the region this evening. The swath of greatest coverage and heaviest rain would be right through the mid-section of the forecast area. Instability will be very impressive with SBCAPE values of 3000-4000J/kg expected along with mid-level lapse rates over 8C/km. Low-level lapse rates should be stout as well. Wind fields will initially be on the weak side, but through the afternoon, 0-3km helicity values climb well over 150m2/s2 from west to east across the region. As low-level winds increase into the evening the 0-3km helicity will really crank up. Supercells with damaging winds and large hail will be possible later this afternoon and especially this evening. The tornado potential will increase into the evening in the northeast as the 0-1km helicity cranks up as well. Early this afternoon, wind fields will not be sufficient for supercells, or mesovortex generation if it becomes linear. However, with the extreme instability expected, more isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. WPC has most of the forecast area in a Marginal risk of exceeding flash flood guidance today which seems reasonable given the amount of instability, and precipitable water values around 1.5" expected. While we are not expecting widespread or long-lived flooding issues, extreme rain rates could quickly/briefly overwhelm drainage systems through this evening. High temperatures today will be dependent on the convective evolution, but most area should reach at least the mid to upper 80s. We trended a bit above NBM numbers for Friday, as dewpoints are expected to mix out a bit and we should have full sunshine. Lows will be well above normal both nights with breezy conditions expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 We begin the period with a 500mb shortwave across the Northern Plains and a surface cold front just north and west of our cwa. As the 500mb wave pivots east into the Great Lakes on Sunday, the cold front will make its passage through our area Saturday night. The overall trend with this system has been slower, which may lead to most the daytime hours on Saturday being dry. The primary window for showers and storms appears to be centered in the Saturday evening through Sunday morning period. While plenty of surface instability will be prevalent Saturday afternoon, it dwindles rather quickly through the evening. The strongest shear remains to our northwest as well. Therefore, the severe risk appears rather limited given the current timing of the convection during the overnight. More of a concern may be heavy rainfall with training convection. QPF amounts have been nudged upwards with this package, with amounts exceeding 1.5" across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Model guidance differs somewhat on how fast to move the precip out of western Kentucky on Sunday, but the general consensus has it primarily out of the area by 18z. Meanwhile, the NBM appears too aggressive in hanging onto PoPs Sunday evening into Monday. Canadian surface high pressure will be funneling drier air into the region Sunday night through Monday. So, while the current package maintains the slight PoPs from the NBM, it most likely will end up dry during this period. Attention then turns to a developing 500mb trough across the Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Timing differences remain with this feature, but ensembles have started to come into reasonable agreement. While initial WAA activity is possible as early as Monday night into Tuesday morning, the best chance for showers and storms looks to be centered on the Tuesday night through Wednesday time period. Temperatures begin the period well above normal, with readings near 90 on Saturday. Much cooler temperatures descend through the area Sunday into Monday (also accompanied by much lower humidity) when highs will only be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. They rebound back to near normal in the upper 70s to near 80 Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Some remnant fog at a few locations will burn off in the next hour. Otherwise the TAFs are VFR. South winds will gradually increase through the day and should be maximized around 00Z when gusts 20-25kts will be common. If the winds diminish much this evening, LLWS will be a concern. SHRA/TSRA will be possible today, but confidence in timing and location is not great. That said, there was a decent signal for an area of convection to slide eastward along the I-64 corridor this evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...SP AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 353 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-201000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 353 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this morning over the southern half of the region. Storms will become more numerous throughout the region this afternoon, and may linger into the evening over the northeast half of the region. Severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Initially large hail and damaging wind will be the primary concerns, but a few tornadoes will be possible late this afternoon and this evening. The storms will produce torrential rains, as well, which could briefly overwhelm drainage systems. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday South winds will gust 25 to 35 mph Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning and again Tuesday into Wednesday. Lightning and locally heavy rain will be the primary storm-related hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested throughout the region this afternoon and evening. DRS/SP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
ILZ077-078-191800-
Edwards IL-Wabash IL-
1229 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Wabash
and Edwards Counties through 100 PM CDT...
At 1229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albion, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
West Salem around 1240 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Lancaster.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3857 8766 3829 8801 3840 8815 3846 8815
3857 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 219DEG 27KT 3842 8804
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
YorkThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:07 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of large hail fell from southern parts of Owensboro northeastward toward Yelvington. Quarter-size hail fell on the south side of Owensboro. Half-dollar size hail fell near Philpot. The storm continued northeast, producing another large hail swath in northeast Daviess County.
A swath of quarter to golf-ball size hail fell northeast of Owensboro in northeast Daviess County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018164, 1018166.