With a stationary boundary well to our northwest, and high pressure centered to our southeast, KY found itself in a weak return flow pattern. Winds were relatively light, with strong subsidence aloft thanks to an upper level ridge in place.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
With a stationary boundary well to our northwest, and high pressure centered to our southeast, KY found itself in a weak return flow pattern. Winds were relatively light, with strong subsidence aloft thanks to an upper level ridge in place. Severe weather was not expected during the day, with most of the eastern conus in just a general thunderstorm risk. That being said, a few showers and thunderstorms did develop. Without a strong steering flow, the shower was slow to move, and therefore ended up leading to an isolated report of flooding in Perry County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 7:30 PM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 830 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022 Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are still initiating along a series of outflow boundaries spread through the CWA. The POP grids were adjusted to fit the current reality, but the overall trend of dissipating precipitation remains as more substantial instability gets tapped over the next hour across our southern counties. The latest obs values were loaded in and trended with the short term guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 525 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022 20Z sfc analysis shows a semi-static situation with high pressure to the southeast and low pressure to the northwest supporting a steady flow of moist air into this part of the state on southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Combined with the influence of mid level troughing and an impulse to the immediate northwest, scattered showers and storms are ongoing through the CWA with one or two areas possibly seeing excessive rains. These are supported by slow storm motion with outflows generating additional, but seemingly weaker, storms. Temperatures vary from the mid and upper 80s in places that the storms have missed to the low and mid 70s in rain cooled spots like the JKL weather office. Dewpoints, however, remain quite elevated in the low to mid 70s most places - evidence of the high PW air - approaching 2 inches. Additional strong activity to the west will need to be watches should it spawn anything that could impact our western and quite saturated counties. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 10 pm for this reason. The models remain in decent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict further diminishing of the mid level weakness to our northwest that has helped to sustain our flood threat up through this evening. This will yield rising 5h heights over this part of the state through the day Monday before they start to fall again from the northwest that night. The small model spread supported using the NBM as the starting point again, but also with the addition of some PoP and future radar details from the CAMs. Sensible weather will feature a conditional threat for flooding lingering for a few more hours until the instability fades out after sunset. Otherwise, look for another mild night with mostly clear skies and the formation of river valley fog after midnight. For Monday, less favorable conditions at mid levels will likely result in less coverage of storm activity and a diminished threat of flooding into Tuesday morning as only scattered and unorganized convection is expected during peak heating. Therefore, the flash flood watch will probably not be extended beyond this evening. With less in the way of clouds and storms around, look for temperatures to be a bit higher than today along with max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. An approaching cold front will then bring a chance of storms back into the area late after a post diurnal lull starting Monday evening. Again expect some river valley fog to develop ahead of any thunderstorm threat Monday night into Tuesday morning with mild and muggy conditions the main attribute. Again adjusted the NBM guidance for the near term and into Monday to add in some of the CAMs details. Did also tweak the hourly T grids for a bit more terrain distinction tonight and on Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022 Key Messages: * Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce high rainfall rates on Tuesday and Wednesday. * Soil moisture and stream flows remain elevated area-wide. * Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are probable. * Pattern change to drier and cooler weather follows for late week. Analysis and Discussion: The latest model suite analysis beginning 12z Tuesday shows an ~594 dam high centered just off Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast and is reflected by an ~1022 mb high over the Western Atlantic. A robust shortwave trough, passing over Southern Quebec, will support an ~ 1008 mb surface low near/over the Bay of Fundy. Southwest of the low, the energy with the upper level trough will become increasingly sheared out as the upper level shortwave vort quickly exits New England on Tuesday. With fading upper level support, the approaching surface cold front will stall out near/just north of the Ohio River and, if guidance proves correct, waver just to our north through 00z Thursday. (The NAM12 is a notable outlier as it tries to push the boundary through later Wednesday). Subtle upper level vort maxes will ride through the region on both Tuesday and Wednesday, each likely kicking off rounds of showers and storms. However, any favored axes for heavier rainfall are still not yet ascertainable. Without a forcing mechanism to maintain the boundary’s integrity, the cold front will likely become rather diffuse by Wednesday as the “favored boundary” for convective initiation becomes realigned by mesoscale interactions (e.g convectively induced outflows, cloud cover, etc). The frontal boundary will linger until a much more vigorous northern stream shortwave trough drops into the Great Lakes on Wednesday night and Thursday, finally shoving the boundary south of our area. A secondary cold front drops in the from north early Friday with a reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air. Model sounding show PWATs surging to around 2 inches on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front. CAPE profiles remain skinny while warm layers remain deep, which will continue to support very efficient rainfall processes. Storm motions on Tuesday will be just a few knots, permitting stronger storm cores to put down a quick inch or two in a short amount of time. The tropospheric flow increases by a few knots on Wednesday, but nearly unidirectional flow in the low-levels will still favor training of storm cells. Given the elevated stream flows and well above normal soil moisture, flash flooding is of paramount concern on both days. With that said, upper level divergence is unimpressive and the 850 mb moisture transport is weak, both of which should hinder the convective potential somewhat. WPC has issued a Marginal Risk Day 3 ERO and Slight Risk Day 4 ERO for all of eastern Kentucky. It is interesting to note that the maximum QPF values of the ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index over eastern Kentucky on Wednesday have dropped slightly to 0.5-0.6, still suggestive of a climatologically unusual QPF event, but lower than what it had advertised in recent days. After the front passes on Thursday, confidence is increasing for a welcome pattern change to relatively cool, less humid, and mostly dry weather for the remainder of the long-term. PWATs quickly drop off to under an inch Thursday afternoon, before briefly ticking up to around 1 inch Thursday night/early Friday with the passage of the secondary cold front. This won’t support anything more than an isolated shower. PWATs decrease to around 0.75 inch or less for the weekend. Sensible Weather: The long-term will kick off with episodes of showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday as the slow-moving cold front crosses the area. Torrential rainfall rates could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding on either day. Leftover showers depart to the south on Thursday with increasing amounts of sunshine by afternoon. Another increase in cloud cover can be expected on Thursday Night/early Friday with the passage of the secondary cold front. Otherwise, anticipate mostly clear skies for the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday before convection bubbles up and cools us off. Wednesday’s highs will be suppressed closer to 80 due to widespread rainfall and cloud cover. Thereafter, the cooler post-frontal air mass will bring a refreshingly cool and less humid air mass. Expect dew points to fall off into the 50s behind the secondary front. Highs in the upper 70s can be expected for Thursday through Saturday, before moderating into the lower and middle 80s for Sunday. Lows will range in the mid 60s to near 70 on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, settle back in the 60s for Thursday night, and fall off into the 50s to near 60 for Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur in the region through the evening hours, causing brief drops in visibilities and ceilings through 02Z. Low and mid levels clouds will dissipate after the storms erode, leading to mostly clear conditions through Monday morning. The clear skies and light, variable winds will allow for patchy fog to form tonight. Sub-VFR visibilities are possible in JKL, LOZ, SME, and SJS. Any fog will mix out quickly after sunrise Monday morning. The warm and moist airmass will remain in place over the region on Monday, causing another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...LUEHRS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...LUEHRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 420 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-082330- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 420 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be around the area through much of the evening. Locally heavy rain may bring incidents of flash flooding, especially where multiple storms pass over the same area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. After only a small chance for storms through Monday night, there will be a persistent threat of thunderstorms, at times, into Thursday. Thunderstorms will again be slow moving and could bring locally heavy rainfall, leading to potential high water issues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any occurrences of flooding through the week. GREIF/GEERTSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported on the roadway on Briar Fork Circle Road near Avawam. 911 dispatch responded to the report. The flooding was shown in a video that had been posted on social media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1040123.