Isolated thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall during the morning hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall during the morning hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 2:48 AM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 348 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather into early next week as slow moving disturbances impacts the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning, an outflow boundary that has moved north through multiple states, has initiated a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with the heaviest rain located over Owen County of the last hour or so. The outflow may continue to produce a few scattered showers/storms as it moves north through sunrise. For the rest of the near term, a slow moving trough and plentiful deep moisture set the stage for an active period. Overnight convection and the associated thick cirrus have stayed west of the area overnight. This allows for efficient warming through the late morning and early afternoon. A weak capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development this morning, however, can't rule a few scattered showers and storms due to the presence of the trough and abundant moisture. Due to the considerable amounts of convection occurring over the middle Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio Valley this morning, several mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) features have formed and will eject eastward during the afternoon. These focused areas of lift along with quickly rising temperatures results in widespread thunderstorm activity with the greatest coverage between noon and 6 PM. While deep layer shear is weak, the MCVs will supply locally enhanced wind flows. As thunderstorms develop and collapse, some organization will be possible with scattered 40-50 mph wind gusts. Some locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms or with any brief surging line segments that are able to form. Locally heavy rainfall is a concern today but much of the area has been dry over the last few days so any flooding should be brief and limited to urban areas due to heavy rainfall rates. Flash flooding would become an increasing concern in location that observe multiple thunderstorms. This scenario appears possible over a very limited spatial area so will hold off on issuing a flood watch. Despite debris upper level cloud cover, some locations across the south and east will warm well into the upper 80s today. Rich surface moisture supports heat indices of 95 to 100 and there is some potential for locations to reach criteria. However, given the developing convection, will issue an SPS to cover the threat instead of an advisory. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Area wide convection should begin to decrease in intensity and coverage for several reasons. Much of the instability would have been used by afternoon convection, instability will be decreasing by sunset, and the trough axis (strongest lift) will have shifted east of the area. With that said, there are several high-resolution models indicating the potential for an intense MCV to move northeast through northern Kentucky and southern Ohio late Thursday night through the day on Friday. This slow moving feature would be trapped under weak steering flow, creating an opportunity for more focused heavy rain for locations along and south of the I-71 corridor. Due to the threat being dependent on a mesoscale feature, will hold off on a flood watch until confidence increases on this potential. Thursday's rainfall coupled with slow moving downpours would certainly create a better chance for observing flash flooding. The forecast headed through the rest of the day on Friday will be largely dependent on the evolution of the MCV. For now, have the highest PoPs along and southeast of I-71, especially during the morning and early afternoon. With diurnal heating, PoPs increase everywhere through the late afternoon before gradually decreasing into Friday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Friday evening, an extremely nebulous upper level pattern will remain in place over the Ohio Valley and southeastern CONUS. There is simply very little flow overall, leaving a stagnant weather pattern over the region heading into the weekend. At the surface, a weak cold front will be unlikely to make significant progress southeast into the ILN CWA, with a moist and unstable air mass over the ILN CWA (and precipitable water values still somewhere near 2"). Through the weekend -- Saturday and Sunday -- convective activity will have a significant diurnal component, with forcing on the weaker side of the equation. Storms could certainly persist into the overnight while feeding on instability alone. Nonetheless, especially with the moist profile and poor lapse rates, this is more of a heavy rain scenario than a severe scenario. Could not rule out a strong or severe storm, primarily with a wind threat, but the greater concern will be for slow- moving storms producing heavy rainfall. Highs over the weekend are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. By Monday, there will be a little more definition to the broader pattern, with ridging off the southeast coast and troughing moving southward into the Upper Midwest. This will only make the pattern over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley even more favorable for convective development, with broad forcing from the upper trough, low-level convergence in the confluent flow into the region (and south of a cold front moving through WI/MI), and a constant feed of theta-e into the region from the south. Model hints at when this entire setup will finally escape the region are not terribly optimistic until perhaps the middle of the week, but Mon/Tue/Wed appear to have a rather high chance of showers and storms, and conditions will remain favorable for slow motions and heavy rainfall. That, plus the general warm/moist conditions (though probably not to heat advisory level) will be the main story heading into next week. This is a low confidence forecast, but with at least some solutions suggesting this pattern may clear out later in the week, PoPs will be kept much lower from Wednesday night into Thursday and beyond. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening, however, an outflow boundary moving north through Kentucky my spark a few scattered showers between 06Z-09Z. Expectations for thunderstorm activity hasn't changed much after 14Z. Expect widespread coverage of thunderstorm activity and it could be several hours of off and on thunderstorms at the area TAF sites. Cigs will also have the potential to be MVFR at times. Vsbys will be reduced with thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity weakens after 00Z. Will be watching for the next surge of rainfall and thunderstorms after 10Z Friday. Have mentioned SHRA in CVG and this activity may be reflected at other sites for the 12Z TAFs. Winds through the period are less than 10 knots, but gusty and variable winds are likely with thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night through Saturday and then again Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...McGinnis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 809 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050015- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 809 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night. A few storms may contain damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be possible. On Friday, thunderstorms are likely. Heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported on State Route 36 between New Liberty and Sanders.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1050942.