Damaging Wind in Guam, August 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
911 AM ChST Mon Aug 15 2022

.Marianas Synopsis...
Guam Doppler weather radar shows isolated showers moving through the
Marianas waters. The buoys reveal combined seas of 3 to 5 feet, made
up mainly of trade-wind swell from the east-northeast.

&&

.Discussion...
Conditions have been fairly dry the past couple days, at the airport
at least, and will remain so through Tuesday. Starting Tuesday night,
a disturbance coming out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
will head toward the Marianas, causing a renewed bout of wet weather.

This wet weather could last until Friday night, then we would have a
chance to dry out again before more showers arrive Sunday. The GFS
predicts quite a bit of rain, while the ECMWF is more restrained.
For now the only action this situation appears to merit is cleaning
out your storm drains.

&&

.Marine...
Winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 4 to 6 feet with occasional 7 foot
values will make things a little harder than usual for mariners this
week. They are still below advisory criteria though, so no weather-
related marine hazards are expected this week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends from beyond the
dateline to Chuuk State. An upper-level low located north of Pohnpei
is enhancing convergence of a surface trough that is currently
between Kosrae and Pohnpei.

The trough between Pohnpei and Kosrae is the main area of concern,
as it moves towards Pohnpei. Satellite imagery and model trends
indicate that conditions will deteriorate for Pohnpei as with a
chance for numerous showers. At this, the main threat will be the
possibility for heavy showers and minor flooding.

For Kosrae and Majuro, unsettled weather will continue through the
week. However, both Kosrae and Majuro will see periods of calmer
weather as the ITCZ starts to build over the week. Medium range
guidance shows the the ITCZ meandering north through the week,
mostly impacting Majuro.

Seas and wind will remain fairly benign over the next several days,
with mostly gentle to moderate winds through midweek. Seas 3 to 5
feet will prevail across the region, except seas of 4 to 6 feet
through at Majuro.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Chuuk is at the edge of the ITCZ with showers and thunderstorms
moving into the coastal waters. Palau on the other hand, is under
the influence of ridging, bringing calmer weather to Palau today.
Yap, farther north, is also under the influence of the ridge but is
also dealing with a circulation to the north. As fragments of the
ITCZ move west they will bring showers to Chuuk while also impacting
Yap and Palau. Model guidance keeps most of the impacts minimal with
only an increase in cloud coverage and showers.

Chuuk will see unsettled weather for most of the week as the edge of
the ITCZ remains in the area. Late in the forecast, around next
weekend, conditions could begin to dry out as the ITCZ starts to
fade.

Marine conditions are benign across the region with altimetry
showing seas between 3 and 5 feet.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: Slaughter