What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 8:48 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 26, 8:48 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
948 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A more typical late-August pattern will continue into next week.
Above-normal temperatures, and afternoon and evening thunderstorm
chances with a mainly mountain focus, can be expected each day. The
forecast becomes more uncertain next week, with the possibility for
a cold front either drifting south across the area and leading to
mid-week drying, or moving back north and bringing in increased
moisture.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Friday: Radar has generally quieted down late this
evening, but with isolated showers continuing to develop along the
numerous lingering outflows from the earlier evening convection.
Instability continues to wane and all last vestiges of shower
activity should dissipate by around midnight or shortly thereafter.
The main concern for the overnight is that many locations received
heavy rainfall today and mid and high-level debris clouds will
steadily thin out - possibly permitting some areas of fog to develop
again across the region. The fog is not expected to be as widespread
or dense as occurred Friday morning, but patchy dense fog will
certainly be possible. The mountain river valleys will see the best
chance of dense fog forming around daybreak. Anticipate continued
mild overnight minimum temperatures running some five degrees above
normal.
Saturday looks a bit quieter across the area. There is some
indication that a weak back door cold front might not make as much
southward progress as earlier thought, and a short wave dropping
down across the region during the day looks largely devoid of dpva.
The latest run of the HREF indicates that showers and storms will
develop during peak heating, but not to the same extent as today.
This suggests a typical August day with precip probs not much better
than chance over the mtns and slight chance east of the mtns, with
temps maybe a few degrees above normal. Won't rule out an isolated
severe storm based on model profiles that show decent mid-level dry
air and an inverted-V in the boundary layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: A positively-tilted trough continues
to lift northeastward Saturday night, as a cold frontal boundary
settles to the south. Heights rebound through the second half of
the weekend as the subtropical high becomes more and more prominent
over the eastern CONUS. By Sunday morning, the front should have
completely crossed the CWA, and accordingly, most deeper moisture is
shunted off to the south and east of the region by Sunday afternoon.
Winds quickly veer to ESEly, however, and allow enough low-level
moisture to build into profiles that 800-1200 J/kg appears warranted
outside the mountains. SREF members indicate a 60-70% chance
for 1000+ J/kg, with a notable minimum across the Appalachians.
Overall, however, the convective environment looks stunted;
multiple guidance sources depict a shallow subsidence inversion
which should keep updrafts from becoming very vigorous, and the GFS,
at least, depicts fairly anemic DCAPE despite dry upper levels.
It appears that moisture will be so shallow it'll have more a
restrictive effect on updraft maintenance than an enhancing effect
on severe potential. That said, steering flow will be extremely
weak (on the order of 1-3kts) and PWs will cap out in the 1.6-1.7"
range, so even with the fairly tight ensemble spread depicted by
the GEFS and SREF alike, whatever storms or showers do develop
will be stationary and capable of producing isolated heavy rainfall.
Monday looks to more or less be a similar setup to Sunday, with weak
ridging in place over the region and shallow moisture at the mid-
to low-levels. Severe risk once again looks inhibited, with better
chance of isolated heavy rainfall. Temperatures both afternoons
will be a category or two above normal. Some uncertainty on lows
given questionable cloud cover overnight, but should be at least
a category above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday: Subtropical ridging continues to
deteriorate Monday night as a deep Z500 low over Saskatchewan and
Ontario drives heights down and exerts influence over the region.
A trough on the periphery of this feature works its way across the
Midwest and sharpens over the Ohio Valley through late Tuesday,
and this looks to drive a surface cold front into the Carolinas
by early Wednesday. Notwithstanding some slowing as the front
exits the Appalachians, the GFS and EC depict this front settling
east of the CWA by Thursday, allowing deeply dry profiles to work
in through the end of the period. The CMC as well as a number of
its ensembles depict a completely different setup, with a potent
upper low splitting off the base the advancing trough on Tuesday.
This alternative setup results in the front largely halting before
it reaches the Carolinas and lifting back north as a warm front,
placing the Carolinas in a robust warm sector as cyclogenesis
takes hold over the Ohio Valley. This would result in a much
more active and less dry setup for the remainder of the period,
with chance to likely PoPs each afternoon. It's far too early to
say which of these setups will ultimately arise.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Thunderstorms have generally dissipated
across the region late this evening, but lingering isolated activity
will have to be monitored near KAND since this area did not get
worked over by the earlier storms. Otherwise, lingering convective
debris clouds aloft will thin out late this evening and early
overnight, which should permit lower clouds and fog to form in
locations where heavy rain recently fell. Evening updates to the
TAFs have added some IFR restrictions at KGMU and KGSP to go with
the existing IFR to LIFR conditions featured at KAVL and KHKY. KCLT
will need to be monitored closely for IFR cig/visibility, but will
hold at MVFR for now and just hint at lower conditions with FEW010
cigs. Saturday looks a bit less active, with coverage higher in and
near the mountains. Expect mainly light and variable winds, except
gusty near any thunderstorms, settling out to a more southerly
direction through the day on Saturday.
Outlook: Daily, mostly diurnal convective chances continue into the
early to middle part of next week. Fog and low stratus are possible
each morning across the mountain valleys and anywhere that received
appreciable rainfall the previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG/MPR
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 26, 8:06 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
906 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-280115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
906 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 26, 7:03 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
803 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
SCZ009-014-270045-
York SC-Chester SC-
803 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Chester and southern York Counties through 845 PM EDT...
At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of York, or near Sharon, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
York, Rock Hill, Chester, Tega Cay, Newport, Sharon, Hickory Grove,
Mcconnells, Lowrys and Lake Wylie.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3466 8113 3486 8146 3490 8148 3506 8139
3506 8105 3504 8104 3506 8101 3506 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 288DEG 14KT 3493 8135
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 26, 7:17 PM EST, 2 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
817 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
SCZ008-009-013-014-270100-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
817 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Chester, southwestern York, southeastern Cherokee and central Union
Counties through 900 PM EDT...
At 816 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Union, or 4 miles east of Jonesville, moving east at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Union, Monarch Mill, Buffalo, Jonesville, Lockhart, Carlisle, Sharon,
Saratt, Adamsburg and Bullock Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 8175 3489 8169 3496 8131 3458 8143
3466 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 281DEG 15KT 3481 8160
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTLocal storm report, Aug 26, 7:53 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
853 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0746 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E SMOKEMONT 35.55N 83.23W
08/26/2022 SWAIN NC OTHER FEDERAL
EASTERN BAND OF CHEROKEE INDIANS REPORTED
5-7 TREES BLOWN DOWN. ALSO, A ONE-LANE
SERVICE GRAVEL ROAD WAS WASHED OUT.
&&
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 26, 8:38 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
938 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
SCZ013-014-270215-
Union SC-Chester SC-
938 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Chester
and southeastern Union Counties through 1015 PM EDT...
At 938 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Union, or near Carlisle, moving southeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Tuckertown, Leeds and Santuc.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3446 8156 3448 8155 3453 8163 3459 8167
3472 8154 3457 8125 3457 8142 3453 8143
3450 8142 3449 8143 3450 8144 3449 8144
3449 8149 3445 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 310DEG 26KT 3457 8147
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 26, 8:50 PM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
950 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
SCZ104-270230-
Greater Oconee SC-
950 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Oconee
County through 1030 PM EDT...
At 950 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Walhalla, or near Westminster, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Lake Keowee and Oakway.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3464 8321 3474 8323 3480 8311 3480 8290
3449 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 286DEG 8KT 3469 8308
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 26, 9:52 PM EST, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
GAZ018-026-SCZ010-104-105-270330-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Pickens SC-
1052 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Franklin,
Stephens, west central Anderson, southwestern Pickens and southern
Oconee Counties through 1130 PM EDT...
At 1052 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seneca. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clemson, Toccoa, Seneca, Pendleton, Westminster, Gumlog, Martin,
Avalon, Tugaloo State Park and Northlake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3438 8336 3463 8337 3475 8287 3457 8268
3448 8302 3449 8305 3446 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 333DEG 3KT 3463 8295
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAC