Funnel Cloud in Florida, September 16, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
123 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A stalled frontal boundary is washing out across the Nature Coast
and there are scattered to numerous showers and storms in place
across the central and southern coastal waters and are starting to
develop across the southern zones. Coverage will become widespread
through the afternoon and early evening, with the sea breeze turning
winds onshore. Convection will again be driven mainly by outflow
boundaries with winds being so light, though there is a little more
east flow in place today vs yesterday.

Moisture will linger over the area as high pressure to the north
bridges down over the area. Aloft, the upper trough will also linger
over the state through the weekend, and this energy combined with
the deep moisture will allow for numerous to widespread showers and
storms each day. Winds will remain fairly light from the E/NE
keeping storms mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

For next week, weak ridging remains at the surface with weak
troughing aloft and a strong high over the TX/OK region. A little
drier air may sneak into the area and lower POPs a bit dependent on
Fiona's motion, but still expect scattered to numerous showers and
storms each afternoon/evening with the light E/NE flow continuing
with afternoon sea breezes near the coast. Regarding Fiona's motion,
GFS still trending faster/stronger and keeping it further east, and
ECMWF slower/weaker initially bringing it closer to the eastern US
coastline, but still remaining offshore at this time. We will
continue monitoring it.

Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day and lows in the 70s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Light E/NE flow will be turning onshore over the next hour or two at
the coastal terminals with the sea breeze, and thunderstorms will be
possible near the sites through 02z. VFR conditions prevail, but
MVFR to IFR is possible with any storm. Winds become light and
variable after 02z and may have some low clouds towards morning
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

The stalled front over the northern coastal waters will continue to
dissipate as the weak ridging over the rest of the waters builds
through the weekend and into next week. Easterly flow remains with
sea breezes in place each afternoon turning winds onshore near the
coast. Deep moisture and instability will linger over the region,
with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each day.
Locally higher winds and seas will occur near the storms. No
headlines otherwise expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

No concerns as moisture remains high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  87  74  89 /  70  80  30  50
FMY  74  90  74  91 /  60  80  40  60
GIF  73  87  72  89 /  60  80  20  60
SRQ  72  87  72  88 /  70  80  40  50
BKV  71  86  69  89 /  60  80  30  50
SPG  76  86  75  87 /  70  80  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT....Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DavisA