Tornadoes and Hail in Florida, May 3 to 6, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
119 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the remainder of
today; however, TLH and VLD may be briefly impacted by isolated
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the
evening hours. MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are expected to develop
overnight tonight across TLH, ECP, DHN, and briefly VLD. These
restrictions should lift by early morning hours shortly after the
13-14z timeframe. The remainder of the day on Wednesday through
18z is forecast to remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1003 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The picture from space this morning shows high cloud over much of
the tri-state region; however, in our western most AL and FL
counties, we're the high clouds are exiting revealing low cloud and
fog. This trend will likely continue for our SE AL and W FL
Panhandle counties this morning, so if you're commuting this morning
out there be prepared for reduced visibility.

Later today, a weak short wave moves over the region, which combined
with an unstable and moist airmass will lead to yet another
afternoon of popcorn showers and thunderstorms. Parameters favor the
potential for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps heavy rain.
Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy afternoon with temperatures rising
into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Tonight, the forecast calls for low temperatures in the mid to upper
60s and light winds. With any rain and lingering humidity we have
the potential for patchy to widespread dense fog during the late
overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Upper-level ridging takes hold across the area starting on
Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. Surface high pressure
northeast of the Bahamas will continue to impart southerly to
southwesterly flow across the area. This will continue to allow
for abundant moisture remaining in place. With little to no upper
air support, the sea breeze will be the primary mechanism by which
storms could develop in the afternoon. The best chances will be
near and east of the I-75 corridor down through the Suwannee
Valley. However, rain chances will nearly shut off on Thursday due
to the subsidence from the upper-level ridge.

With less rainfall and increasing subsidence, highs will likely
reach the lower 90s away from the coast, which will stay in the
middle to upper 80s. Lows will be in the middle to upper 60s. Some
patchy fog will again be possible Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Ridging scoots off to our east Thursday night into Friday with a
trough poised to move across the Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians Friday into Saturday. This will bring a cold front
into our area Friday afternoon and evening, which will then stall
on Saturday and dissipate through the weekend.

The front will help provide a focus for showers and storms to
develop Friday afternoon and evening, along with the afternoon sea
breeze. A loosely-organized line of storms could form along the
cold front as it moves into southeast Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle. There appears to be abundant CAPE and DCAPE and
about 30 knots of deep-layer shear to support some strong to
marginally severe storms on Friday. Most storms will trend
downward after sunset as daytime heating is lost. However, with
the front still lingering in place, a few showers and storms could
still be possible into the overnight hours, particularly near the
coast. On Saturday, the front still remains in place, though
slowly weakening, and once again it will provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability and shear do not
appear as impressive on Saturday, but a couple stronger storms
still could not be ruled out.

The front dissipates on Sunday and the upper-level trough moves
off the Atlantic coast. This leaves us with generally northerly
flow across the area with some drier air in place, offering a
brief reprieve in recent humidity and perhaps some cooler
overnight lows. However, highs will remain mainly in the upper
half of the 80s through the period with lows in the 60s.

.MARINE...

South to southwest winds around 10 knots and seas around 1 to 3
feet will continue for the next few days before a cold front
approaches on Friday. Winds will increase to cautionary levels
Friday and perhaps near advisory conditions on Saturday. Seas will
also build to 3 to 5 feet by the end of the week, resulting in
possibly hazardous boating conditions for small craft along with
scattered showers and storms.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Areas of high dispersion are expected for areas west and along the
Flint River today while tomorrow widespread low dispersions are
expected. In terms of weather, we'll continue to see the trend of
popcorn showers and thunderstorms for portions of SW GA and the Big
Bend today with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. The next chance
widespread showers and storms will be Friday with a cold front
moving through the region. Until then expect moderate minRH values
spread across the 35-60% range the next few days with good to near
excellent recovery forecast overnight.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals will generally be light across the area, averaging
less than a quarter of an inch during the next 7 days. However,
given the scattered nature of thunderstorms and a summerlike
flavor to the storms, localized amounts up to an inch are
certainly possible with any slow-moving storms over isolated
locations. However, widespread riverine or flash flooding is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  90  66  91  66 /  10  20   0  10   0
Panama City   68  84  68  84  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  88  65  90  66 /  10  20   0  10  10
Albany        67  90  67  92  68 /  30  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      64  90  66  92  66 /  30  30  10  10   0
Cross City    65  89  66  90  68 /  20  40  10  10   0
Apalachicola  69  82  68  83  70 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
318 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

FLZ016-017-031945-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-
318 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Gadsden
and north central Leon Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tallahassee Comm College, or near Tallahassee. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Macon Community Park, Lake Iamonia, Lake Jackson,
Tallahassee Mall, Scotland, Orchard Pond, Maclay State Gardens,
Gibson, Killearn Lakes, Forest Meadows Park and Tallahassee Coml
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 8437 3059 8447 3064 8422 3050 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 168DEG 4KT 3051 8435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

72-BUNKER