Wildfire in Florida, March 7, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
748 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

.UPDATE...

Forecast looks on track with no significant changes needed at
this time. Breezy winds observed this afternoon have begun to
subside this evening but may remain elevated along the coast
around 10 mph for a couple of hours before decreasing further
later in the night. Lows tonight will be above normal in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [626 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Deep-layered ridging will gradually flatten as shortwave troughing
races northeastward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening
and across the eastern Great Lakes and New England on Monday. This
feature will propel a cold front across the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi Valleys on Monday. Low level winds will veer to
southerly ahead of this approaching boundary overnight and early
on Monday, with boundary layer winds remaining too strong for
significant fog formations for locations west of U.S. Highway 301,
while a brief period of patchy fog and/or low stratus being
possible along the U.S.-301 and I-95 corridors around sunrise on
Monday. Otherwise, fair skies, strong subsidence and decoupling
surface winds overnight will allow lows to generally fall to the
upper 50s to around 60, with lower 60s forecast along the
immediate coast.

Low level flow will continue to veer to south-southwesterly on
Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, and this
flow will begin to advect higher PWAT values into our region
towards sunset. A pocket of deeper moisture will advect north-
northeastward from the southeast Gulf of Mexico across the FL
peninsula during the late afternoon hours, and a few showers will
be possible towards sunset over portions of north central FL
(mainly over the Ocala National Forest) as well as southern
portions of the St. Johns River basin. Otherwise, breezy
conditions will develop over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley during the afternoon hours, with the Atlantic sea breeze
remaining pinned along the I-95 corridor. Highs will approach
daily record values (see Climate section below for details) at
most inland locations, where values will soar to the mid and upper
80s. The afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

Support aloft for the cold front will wane on Monday night as the
aforementioned shortwave trough races across New England. The
front will decelerate over the FL panhandle and south central GA,
with deepening west-southwesterly flow aloft gradually increasing
deep-layered moisture across our region. Our local pressure
gradient will loosen on Monday evening, with widely scattered
evening showers over southern portions of the St. Johns River
basin progressing offshore, potentially setting up widespread low
stratus and possibly areas of locally dense fog overnight through
the early morning hours on Tuesday. Lows on Monday night will only
fall to the 60-65 degree range area-wide.

Weak shortwave energy embedded within the deep west-southwesterly
flow pattern aloft should trigger widely scattered convection on
Tuesday afternoon and evening across much of our area as the
frontal boundary remains stalled just northwest of our region.
This activity will mostly develop along the inland-moving Gulf
coast sea breeze, with a few showers also possibly developing
along the Atlantic sea breeze boundary that should be positioned
near I-95 by late afternoon. Increasing cloud cover should keep
highs mostly in the 80-85 degree range, except mid to upper 70s
for coastal southeast GA. Activity will continue to be mostly
diurnal in nature, with low stratus and fog again potentially
developing overnight into the early morning hours on Wednesday.
Lows will mostly remain in the mid 60s on Tuesday night.

A more potent shortwave trough progressing east-northeastward from
the Southern Plains on Tuesday night and through the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Wednesday should develop a wave of low
pressure along the stalled front across the Deep South by
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in better chances for
mainly afternoon convection for locations north of Waycross.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms should become widespread across
inland southeast GA on Wednesday night. Widely scattered late
afternoon/early evening activity should again develop along
mesoscale boundaries such as the inland moving sea breezes
elsewhere. Highs will again climb to the 80-85 degree range at
most locations. Lows will again only fall to the mid 60s on
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through next Sunday]...

Deep troughing will dig south-southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies and the northern Plains states late this week. This
feature will strengthen west-southwesterly flow further locally,
and waves of showers and thunderstorms will progress across our
area from Thursday through Saturday before a strong cold front
clears our region by Saturday evening. Beneficial rainfall is
expected area-wide, with 1-2 inch rainfall totals possible during
this time period, and locally higher amounts possible. Highs will
mostly reach the 75-80 degree range late this week, except in
north central FL, where mid 80s will continue. Lows will remain in
the 60s through Friday night.

The 12Z operational ECMWF model depicted a slower progression of
the strong cold front across our area next weekend, which could
keep widespread shower and thunderstorm activity going into
Saturday if this solution verifies. A much colder air mass should
blast into our area in the wake of this frontal passage by
Saturday night and Sunday, with most long-term guidance indicating
highs remaining in the 50s next Sunday. Lows will likely fall into
the 30s at inland locations as breezy northwesterly winds advect a
colder air mass into the Deep South.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday.
Breezy winds observed at most TAF sites this afternoon should
subside in the next hour. Boundary layer winds will likely be too
strong to support any significant fog formation overnight.
However, patchy fog may develop in inland NE FL due to relatively
calmer winds. Brief MVFR VSBYs may be possible for GNV and VQQ in
the early morning hours. Also, brief MVFR VSBYs may be possible
for SSI overnight depending if sea fog pushes inland. Winds shift
to south-southwesterly on Monday with winds around 10 kts.

.MARINE...

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its
axis west southwestward across the Florida peninsula through
Monday, creating breezy south-southeasterly winds tonight that
will shift to southerly on Monday. Elevated seas of 5-7 feet will
result in Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters
adjacent to northeast Florida, with Caution level seas of 4-6 feet
expected elsewhere. High pressure will then shift eastward on
Monday night as a cold front enters the southeastern states,
resulting in winds shifting to south-southwesterly by Tuesday with
decreasing speeds. Seas will fall back to the 3-5 foot range near
shore on Monday night, while elevated seas persist offshore
through late in the week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase by
Tuesday afternoon as the frontal boundary stalls to the northwest
of our local waters. Waves of low pressure developing along this
stalled front will result in widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms by Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front will
then sweep across our local waters on Saturday.

Rip Currents: Building seas and a developing east-southeasterly
ocean swell will likely result in a high risk of rip currents on
Monday at the northeast FL beaches. A moderate risk is forecast
for the southeast GA beaches. The east-southeasterly ocean swell
will keep at least a moderate risk in place at area beaches
through midweek.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy south-southeasterly surface and transport winds this
afternoon will shift to southerly early on Monday and then
southwesterly by the afternoon hours. Strengthening transport
speeds will create high daytime dispersion values across inland
portions of southeast Georgia, with marginally high values
possible elsewhere. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to
around 35 percent at most inland locations on Monday afternoon.
Southwesterly surface and transport winds will weaken by Tuesday
morning, resulting in fair dispersion values for most areas.
Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, with increasing
chances for widespread beneficial rainfall on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  87  63  82  63 /   0  10  10  40  40
SSI  62  77  63  76  63 /   0  10  10  40  40
JAX  60  86  62  83  64 /   0  10  10  30  30
SGJ  63  83  64  80  65 /   0  20  20  40  40
GNV  60  86  62  84  63 /   0  10  10  30  20
OCF  60  87  63  85  64 /   0  30  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1122 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     WILDFIRE         4 WNW LAKE BUTLER       30.05N 82.40W
03/06/2022                   UNION              FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            A WILDFIRE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE
            ROAD 100 AND NW 129TH AVENUE WAS ABOUT 50
            ACRES IN SIZE WITH NO CONTAINMENT WHEN FIRST
            REPORTED TO THE FL STATE WATCH OFFICE AROUND
            4:37 PM EST. THERE WAS LIGHT SMOKE OVER
            STATE ROAD 100 WITH NO CLOSURE REPORTED AT
            THE TIME AND NO EVACUATIONS. AT 7:17 PM EST,
            THE FL FOREST SERVICE REPORTED THAT THE FIRE
            WAS 100 ACRES IN SIZE WITH 0% CONTAINMENT.

&&

AE