Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Florida, July 10, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Wet and stormy sums up the near
term pretty well. An upper level trough meanders over the area as
a stalled front sits off the north-central Gulf Coast states.
These features will be responsible for continuing to supply the
area with copious amounts of moisture (noted by PWATs remaining
at or above 2 to 2.25"). This coupled with afternoon heating
should allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to
develop today and again Monday for much of the region. Greatest
coverage will remain focused generally along and southeast of the
I-65/I-10 corridor. Coverage should become focused across coastal
counties and the marine waters late this evening into the
overnight hours. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern with
storms given antecedent soil moisture is rather moist from
rainfall the past few days. We could see some spots that
experience slow moving and/or training thunderstorms dealing with
localized flash flooding issues today and tomorrow. A marginal
risk for flash flooding remains in place across the area today and
tomorrow from the WPC. At this time it doesn't appear there will
be much of a severe risk from storms, although any storm mergers
could produce some stronger downbursts.

Forecast highs will be in the upper 80's to lower 90's for today,
and expect this to remain the case for Monday. Lows will be in
the middle 70's, with upper 70's nearer the coast. Heat index
values should remain relatively tame today and Monday owing to the
cooler forecast highs, however, they will still be in the 100 to
105 range. A LOW risk of rip currents is in place today into
tonight, becoming a Moderate risk Monday and Monday evening for
the FL panhandle and AL coastlines respectively. A HIGH risk of
rip currents begins Tuesday in the short term period. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the area in the wake
of this mornings storms. Winds will be light out of the north-
northwest today with another round of scattered to possibly numerous
showers developing this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could be
mixed in as well. MVFR and occasionally IFR visbys and ceilings could
be possible in the vicinity of any showers and storms; however,
scattered nature and short duration of storms should limit any long
term aviation impacts. Storms should subside this evenings into the
overnight hours. Some patchy fog could be present inland; however,
visbys should remain MVFR to VFR across the area. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob