Drought in Florida, December 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Drier northerly air continues to push south across the region, the
forecast remains on track and updates are not necessary this
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

A cold front is expected to pass through our CWA tomorrow,
advecting dry continental air into the area dropping dewpoints into
the high 20s / upper 30s and temperatures in the upper 30s / low 40s
overnight. Clear skies will prevail as our upper level moisture
mixes out with the passage of this system with a surface high
pressure building in its wake. This will bring temperatures in the
upper 50s / mid 60s areawide as cooler air pushes into the region from the
NNE. Winds are expected to remain breezy with some gusts from 15
to 20 mph as the pressure gradient tightens over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

An upper level ridge will become better established through the
end of the week over the central Gulf of Mexico while locally,
northeasterly flow will begin to take hold. No significant
systems are expected to end the week and with the ridge in solid
control of the pattern into the upcoming weekend, expect a
moderating trend to begin by Friday as low level moisture begins
to move back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Upper level ridge over the Gulf will remain the dominant weather
feature for the tri-state region over the weekend and into early
next week with westerly upper level flow expected. With the ridge
in control of the weather, and light east/southeast flow expected
through next week, we'll see a warming trend with much of the
chances for rain remaining well north of the region. Temperatures
will be in the upper 70s through much of the period with low
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. Above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Clearing skies continue to move eastward behind the cold front
with TLH and VLD having SCT to BKN cigs, respectively, continuing
to lift and clear out over the next few hours. Vsbys at VLD are
currently bounding around 2 to 4SM but are expected to be VFR
within the next few hours as the cold front clears through VLD.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 03Z with gusty northerly
winds behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

The storms along the front have pushed out of the area but winds
will strengthen tonight as winds turn to be out of the north. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Wednesday evening into
Thursday afternoon. Tranquil boating returns this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Higher transport winds out of the NNE will keep dispersions at
favorable levels with RH values expected to remain above critical
values Thursday afternoon. On Friday, transport winds will begin to
decrease which will bring low dispersions primarily to areas west of
the Apalachee and Flint river basins.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches were observed with localized
higher amounts across southeast Alabama with this frontal system.
These amounts are not enough to cause significant rises on area
rivers and no concerns are anticipated through the next 5 to 7
days with little rainfall in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  63  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   42  63  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  58  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        37  59  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  63  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  71  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  65  53  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EST this evening for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for GMZ730-750-752-
     755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs