What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 25, 1:54 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 1:54 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]
Low cigs are currently present across the region with vicinity
showers and thunderstorms. This will continue into the evening
with increasing cigs after sunset. Patchy fog may be possible
tomorrow morning impacting all terminals except ECP a few hours
before sunrise with cigs increasing a few hours after sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [1045 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A mid level trough remains overhead pumping in high PWAT moisture
content (2.1-2.2 inches) on southwesterly flow. Upstream, a
shortwave trough is noted in the Louisiana/Mississippi area and is
progged to move east through the day, arriving over our area this
afternoon. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary stretches near
the state lines of Florida and Alabama/Georgia.
Widespread cloud cover and low instability will once again be a
challenge for the forecast rain chances and temperatures. It is
possible to have some breaks in the clouds through the Florida Big
Bend, thus a little more instability to work with. Overall, kept
high rain chances today with showers and storms moving in from the
west, added mid level support from the approaching trough, and
the possible increase in stability in our southeast counties.
Chances will be in the 50-80% range, favoring our western areas
and Big Bend associated with the seabreeze. Locally heavy rainfall
is also a concern as the entire area is in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
A stationary boundary along the FL border has been keeping us in
a particularly wet pattern. This is still the case for Friday but,
upper level ridging will build in to our north through the short
term. This will allow the stationary boundary to move south
towards the gulf but, unfortunately we won't get the benefit of a
drier air mass moving in. We will still have ample moisture with
PWATs of 2" over the region. Showers and thunderstorms remain in
the forecast with the potential for heavy downpours and training
storms that could lead to localized flash flooding. PoPs for
Friday and Saturday range from around 80% on Friday and 70% on
Saturday. PoPs are higher for Friday due to a shortwave passing
around the larger upper-level trough that will provide extra
forcing for shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures for
this period will be in the mid-upper 80s for the afternoon highs
and low 70s for the overnight lows.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The upper-level ridging to our north will not be drying us out.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast in a typical
summertime diurnal cycle for the long term. PWAT values will
continue the potential for heavy downpours that could lead to
flash flooding with any shower or thunderstorm. PoPs for the long
term range from 50-70% during the afternoons. Temperatures for the
long term will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for the Highs and
the Lows will be in the low 70s.
There are some global ensemble members and deterministic models
indicating the potential for a tropical disturbance/feature to
reach the western Caribbean by the end of the long term. As it
currently stands, the ridging that develops to our north should
help deflect any approaching disturbance to our west into the
western Gulf of Mexico, should anything materialize. That being
said, since we are approaching the climatological peak of the
season it is recommended to remain prepared as we continue to
monitor the tropics.
Now would be a good time to look over your hurricane preparedness
kits, be sure to check out www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan
for valuable planning resources.
.MARINE...
Light and gentle breezes will prevail through Sunday, varying in
direction from northeast to southeast, as a weak bubble of high
pressure continues over the Southeast Coastal Plain. Showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each day, especially in the
overnight to morning hours.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Above average rain chances will continue for the next several
days. This, along with recent wetting rains, will keep fire
weather concerns to a minimum. The exception is afternoon low
dispersions which will continue into this weekend.
.HYDROLOGY...
No areal or river flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Any
thunderstorms of course are capable of producing heavy downpours
which can lead to short-lived drainage issues.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 88 72 89 73 / 20 40 30 70 30
Panama City 74 86 74 88 75 / 40 40 30 70 30
Dothan 71 84 72 87 71 / 30 40 20 70 20
Albany 73 86 72 87 73 / 30 30 20 70 20
Valdosta 72 88 72 89 72 / 50 40 30 70 30
Cross City 73 89 73 90 73 / 50 40 40 80 40
Apalachicola 75 86 75 87 75 / 30 50 40 60 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 25, 1:49 PM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0232 PM WATER SPOUT 2 E SAINT GEORGE ISLAND 29.66N 84.82W
08/25/2022 GMZ755 FL NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OFF THE
SHORE OF SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. A PICTURE CAN
BE SEEN ON THE NWS TALLAHASSEE TWITTER PAGE.
&&
HANERSpecial weather statement, Aug 25, 3:25 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
425 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
FLZ018-019-252200-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-
425 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jefferson
and southwestern Madison Counties through 600 PM EDT...
At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Monticello, moving northwest at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Minor flooding due to heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor flood impacts including roadway ponding are expected.
Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Moseley Hall, Ebb, Lamont, Aucilla, Eridu and Sirmans.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3030 8360 3030 8375 3042 8392 3054 8371
3037 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 130DEG 5KT 3035 8370
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BootheSpecial weather statement, Aug 25, 3:40 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
440 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
FLZ013-014-016>018-026-027-GAZ158-252115-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Calhoun FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Inland Gulf FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-Thomas GA-
440 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Gulf
and southeastern Calhoun Counties in the Panhandle of Florida,
northwestern Wakulla, central Gadsden, central Liberty, northwestern
Jefferson, Leon Counties in Big Bend of Florida and south central
Thomas Counties in south central Georgia through 515 PM EDT/415 PM
CDT/...
At 439 PM EDT/339 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of
Stonemill Creek to 7 miles northeast of Woodville. Movement was north
at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Florida State University, Quincy, Tallahassee Comm College,
Tallahassee, Blountstown, Midway, Florida A and M, Havana, Woodville,
Doak Campbell Stadium, Wewahitchka, Orange, Bristol, Lake Bradford,
Alma, Cody, Jewel Fire Tower, Vilas, Florence and Chipola Cutoff.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3049 8512 3072 8382 3031 8405 3011 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 197DEG 25KT 3018 8509 3035 8412
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial weather statement, Aug 25, 3:49 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
FLZ014-015-026-115-252115-
Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Franklin FL-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Gulf,
southwestern Liberty and northwestern Franklin Counties through 515
PM EDT/415 PM CDT/...
At 448 PM EDT/348 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles northeast of Port St. Joe, moving northeast at
5 mph.
HAZARD...Minor Flooding due to heavy rain and Winds in excess of 30
mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor flood impacts including roadway ponding are expected.
Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Howard Creek, Willis Landing, Buck Siding, Beverly, Hays Place and
Fort Gadsden.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2977 8509 2991 8522 3008 8507 2987 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 230DEG 5KT 2989 8510
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH