Rip Current in Florida, April 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
931 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022

.UPDATE...

Mid/upper level high pressure will remain over the area today,
keeping subsidence and dry weather in place for the region. Low
stratus and patchy fog across the interior early this morning has
eroded, with only few/scattered stratocu remaining along the
coastal areas in the 3.5kft range. Breezy easterly winds will
prevail again this afternoon due to strong surface high pressure
to the northeast of the area, with winds gusting around 30 mph at
the beaches. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s at the beaches,
and 80-85F inland.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [732 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...

Strong subsidence will likely aid in patchy fog and low stratus
development at inland locations through early this morning, with
areas of locally dense fog possible across inland southeast GA
towards sunrise. Any fog or low stratus that manages to develop
should lift by the mid-morning hours.

Deep-layered ridging will maintain a mostly dry and subsident air
mass across our area through tonight. Our local pressure gradient
will remain tight today as strong high pressure continues to
wedge down the southeastern seaboard, and convergent low level
easterly winds should continue to advect patches of marine
stratocumulus westward across northeast and north central FL. An
isolated brief shower or sprinkle will remain possible for
locations south of St. Augustine, but chances for measurable
rainfall in these locations are only around 20 percent. Easterly
winds will remain sustained at 15-20 mph at coastal locations
today, keeping highs in the upper 70s. Breezy easterly winds will
overspread inland locations by the mid to late morning hours, and
highs will climb to the low and mid 80s this afternoon.

Surface ridging will gradually weaken overnight as it shifts
southward towards the southeastern seaboard. Our local pressure
gradient will be slow to loosen, keeping breezy onshore winds in
place at coastal locations through the predawn hours, with winds
inland again decoupling overnight. Fog may again form during the
predawn hours across inland portions of southeast GA, and cirrus
spilling over the ridge aloft may also migrate overhead towards
sunrise on Sunday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to
around 60 at inland locations to the upper 60s at coastal
locations.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday Night]...

Sunday and Sunday night...the high pressure center shifts
southward off the Carolina coast relaxing the gradient over the
area allowing easterly onshore flow to gradually subside.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday. Due to onshore flow,
highs Sunday will range from the upper 70s along the coast to the
mid 80s further inland and lows will range from the mid 60s along
the coast to upper 50s in inland SE GA.

Monday...a broad trough over the central CONUS moves eastward with
cold front moving into the Mid South region. A weakened surface
high remains centered well offshore of the Coastal Carolinas with
ridge axis off our region's coast. The local pressure gradient
will weaken further Monday as winds slightly veer to ESE, inducing
a warming trend to start off early next week with ridging in
control. Highs Monday will be about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than
Sunday.

Monday night...surface ridge will expand into the region with calm
to very light south winds. With slight uptick in near surface
moisture but staying limited with radiational cooling, subsidence
and light winds some patchy fog may develop over the inland areas
of southeast GA. Lows will be in the lower 60s inland to mid 60s
near the coast.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

Ahead of the front Tuesday, highs warm into the low 80s along the
coast to upper 80s inland with the potential to reach 90. A weakening
front will move through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Given the rather scant pre-frontal moisture and lack of appreciable
mid-upper level forcing or low level convergence, POPS along and
ahead of the boundary will be quite low. Low end rain chances
return ahead and with the front with isolated to widely scattered
showers and a thunderstorm possible. A cool, dry airmass filters
into the region behind the front for the rest of the week.
Temperatures decrease to around normal in the wake of the front
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and low
60s. By the end of the week into Saturday, another Atlantic ridge
will be centered well off the coastal Carolinas with southeast
surface flow with temps warming up into the mid/upper 80s inland
to near 80 at the coast, with temps warming a few more degrees on
Saturday as ridge expands further across SE GA and NE FL.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Light
winds will become easterly 10-15 knots with higher gusts by the
afternoon. Winds will diminish again this evening. Scattered/broken
stratocu in the 3.5-5kft range will prevail today.

.MARINE...

High pressure building southeastward from Hudson Bay, Canada, will
wedge down the southeastern seaboard today, keeping breezy
easterly winds and elevated seas in place. Small Craft should
continue to exercise Caution across most of our local waters
through tonight, as sustained speeds remain in the 15-20 knot
range, with seas generally in the 4-6 foot range. Seas will
remain at Small Craft Advisory levels of 5-7 feet over the
offshore waters south of St. Augustine through late tonight.

High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward off the
southeastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday, resulting in gradually
diminishing winds and seas. Seas will remain at Caution levels for
the offshore FL waters on Sunday. Winds will then shift to
southerly on Monday night ahead of a cold front that will be
entering the southeastern states. This front will pass through our
local waters on Tuesday evening, accompanied by widely scattered
showers. High pressure will then briefly build over the
southeastern states in the wake of this front by midweek,
resulting in northwesterly winds late on Tuesday night shifting to
northerly by Wednesday morning and then northeasterly by
Wednesday afternoon, with speeds increasing to just under Caution
levels.

Rip Currents: Persistent breezy onshore winds and breakers of 3-5
feet at the northeast FL beaches will keep a high risk of deadly
rip currents in place through Sunday. A high risk is also
forecast today for the southeast GA beaches, with gradually
diminishing winds and seas on Sunday resulting in a moderate risk.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy easterly flow will continue today with a low chance of
coastal sprinkles over Flagler County. Elevated daytime
dispersions are expected today well inland with minimum humidity
around 35-40% across inland areas. On Sunday and Monday, E to ESE
winds slacken with surface high pressure centered off of the
coastal Carolinas, with favorable dispersions and a subtle return
of low level moisture returning.

.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding continues to subside all along the Altamaha River, with
levels on the upper Altamaha near the Baxley gauge expected to
fall below flood stage early this morning. Water levels on the
lower Altamaha near the Everett City gauge are expected to fall
below flood stage later this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  81  57  83  58  86 /   0  10  10   0   0
SSI  78  68  79  65  81 /  10  10  10   0   0
JAX  80  60  80  63  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
SGJ  78  69  80  65  81 /  10  10  10   0   0
GNV  83  58  85  60  87 /  10  10  10   0  10
OCF  83  60  86  63  88 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&