Enough residual moisture remained present across southwest Colorado to fuel isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Enough residual moisture remained present across southwest Colorado to fuel isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. A localized debris flow occurred in La Plata County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 11:02 AM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1202 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A few lingering showers persist along the WY/CO border in response to a shortwave moving across the area this morning. Coverage is trending very quickly however so by daybreak, dry conditions will be predominant. On the backside of the shortwave, winds will become northwesterly and usher in drier air from north to south. High pressure will also start to form over the Western Slope which will also aid in turning winds more northerly. Models have been consistent, however, with convection firing over the San Juans this afternoon and to a lesser extent along the Continental Divide. Highest PWATs remain in that general area and the strongest divergence aloft is also found there so with some lift and moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms look a safe bet. CAM guidance, both the NAMNEST and HRRR, are a bit more aggressive with some weak convection firing over most of the higher terrain today. NBM isn't so bullish so a bit of a discrepancy for this afternoon and will follow NBM's lead as it has been consistent for the last several model runs. As we've seen for the San Juans, expect some heavy rainers due to slow movement as steering flow is only on the order of 5 to 10 mph. Rest of the CWA will be similar to yesterday...hot with flat CU. Sounding like a broken record for Monday as the area of high pressure remains across our area and one guess for where precip falls. You guessed it. The San Juans continue their streak of afternoon convection along with the Continental Divide. Rest of the CWA will see a few clouds over the higher terrain and that'll be about it. Hot temperatures continue. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A cutoff low will have set up off the PacNW coast at the start of the long term period as high pressure remains over the CWA. The interaction of these 2 features will bring a plume of monsoonal moisture up through Arizona into western Utah and Nevada. We'll likely see some convection for the San Juans as we've been seeing over the last few days thanks to favorable orographics and increased moisture...the rest of us will see dry and warm conditions. By Wednesday, the closed low starts to lift northeastward which will finally cause the high pressure to also shift eastward. The end result will also be an easterly shift of the monsoonal moisture which will increase chances for convection across eastern UT and western CO. In fact, afternoon and evening convection looks to increase in coverage and intensity Wednesday onwards through Saturday. Some timing differences do pop-up though with the EC a bit slower in the low moving out so if you follow the EC, Wednesday would be more dry with the push of heavier precip not kicking in until Thursday onwards. Either way, confidence is slowly starting to increase with this solution as only minor changes have occurred over the last few model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire again this afternoon. Most of this activity will favor the San Juans, Continental Divide mountains and adjacent southern valleys. Maintained VCTS for KTEX and KDRO with this update given proximity to richer monsoonal moisture. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule with limited precipitation chances. Winds will mainly be light and terrain driven, though a few afternoon gusts to 20 knots are possible in the higher elevations. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-081200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Most areas will remain dry today except the San Juans northward along the Continental Divide. Showers and thunderstorms will form this afternoon in those areas with some heavy rain possible under the strongest convection. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The San Juans will remain favored for convection through Wednesday. After that, moisture begins to increase across all of eastern Utah and the Western Slope bringing increased chances for convection each afternoon from Wednesday into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
145 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
COZ019-072015-
Southwest San Juan Mountains CO-
145 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Hinsdale County through 215 PM MDT...
At 145 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northwest of Pagosa Springs, or 41 miles northeast of Durango,
moving northwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Hinsdale County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3756 10733 3769 10726 3761 10713 3751 10713
3749 10714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 124DEG 10KT 3757 10721
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BGBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
147 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
COZ019-022-072015-
Animas River Basin CO-Southwest San Juan Mountains CO-
147 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central La Plata
County through 215 PM MDT...
At 146 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Durango, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central La Plata
County, including the following locations... Falfa.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 550 in Colorado between mile markers 13 and 24.
U.S. Highway 160 in Colorado between mile markers 77 and 93.
Colorado 172 between mile markers 22 and 24.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3729 10798 3732 10786 3721 10773 3715 10796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 330DEG 10KT 3726 10790
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MillerThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms triggered a mudslide north of the Vallecito Marina and Yacht Club across CR 501.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1037692.