Heavy rain fell over portions of north-central Saguache County producing flooding and closing down CO Hwy 114 for several hours.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Heavy rain fell over portions of north-central Saguache County producing flooding and closing down CO Hwy 114 for several hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:09 PM MST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 309 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 ...PM thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains this evening, with a few storms moving over into the I-25 corridor and San Luis Valley, with a better chance for storms over the plains tomorrow... Key messages: 1) Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and San Luis Valley during the afternoon, with a few storms moving over the I-25 corridor later this evening. 2) Main threat with thunderstorms will be torrential rainfalls with possible flash flooding for burn scar areas if storms become relatively stationary. Strong outflow winds to 50 mph, small hail, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be possible. 3) Thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow over the mountains during the afternoon, and over the plains through the evening hours. Detailed discussion: Currently... The ridge near the Four Corners area is continuing to build in retrograde back to the northwest slightly, which is allowing for the anticyclonic flow to advect in mid level monsoonal moisture over the region. This has allowed for thunderstorms to continue to develop over the mountains with orographic forcing, mainly over the central mountains and spilling over into the San Juan Valley. There will be more storms developing throughout the early evening hours over the Rampart Range and then moving off over into the Palmer Divide. There is also a slight chance of a storm making it over the I-25 corridor, however given the environmental parameters, it is unlikely that any of these storms will sustain their strength due to a fair amount of capping over the plains with warmer air aloft. The CAMs show a fair amount of instability over the mountains and southeastern plains, although besides orographic lift, forcing is lacking in general. Due to this, if there is enough daytime heating to break the cap and allow for upward vertical motion, there could be a pulse type storm or two over the Raton Mesa/southeastern plains, otherwise the plains should remain relatively hot and dry throughout the early evening. Tonight... A few of the lingering storms will continue to weaken going into the later hours of the evening with all remaining showers dissipating by around midnight or before. There will be some clearing, although with mostly cloudy skies going late into the evening and relatively higher moisture content in the PBL, there will not be much in the way of radiational cooling. This being said, lows will drop out only into low 60s over much of the plains, with low to mid 50s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in the 40s for country. Tomorrow... The ridge will continue to slowly expand northward and the high pressure aloft will meander slightly more to the west and south of the Four Corners. This will allow for the monsoonal plume to remain over the region with anticyclonic flow and mid to upper level winds being predominantly out of the northwest, which will help to move storms off the mountains and over the plains by later in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms look to initiate over the mountains primarily just after noon. The latest NAM model data shows the most instability to be located over the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with CAPE of around 2000 J/kg by around 3 PM. This may result in a stronger storm for these mountain ranges, even though mid-level shear is lacking in the area with the higher values of close to 40 kts being located over the Rampart Range. Lapse rates also remain favorable for stronger storm development, given that the are anywhere between 8 and 8.5 C/km. If a strong or potentially severe storm were to occur, there could be stronger outflow winds to 50 mph or more if severe, and some hail that may reach an inch in diameter. Otherwise the main threat will be torrential rainfall in a short period of time, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Flash flooding over the burn scars may also be an issue if storms remain nearly stationary over burn scar areas, which could be the case over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains (with the Spring scar in particular) due to weaker shear aloft. Capping over the plains will be lessened, although CAPE will also be weaker. Some of the storms will make it over the I-25 corridor and a few discrete cells could fire later in the evening over the far eastern plains. With the ridge slowly building overhead, max temperatures tomorrow afternoon will also be slightly warmer and above the seasonal average, with some highs topping out over the 100 degree mark over the lower Arkansas River Valley. -Stewey .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 The operational model guidance has come into better agreement through the extended in regards to the positioning of the upper high. All solutions and ensembles have the upper high shifting east into the Central Plains from mid to late week, before retrograding back west by late in the weekend. Tuesday night...an upper disturbance embedded in weak northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to progress across the Plains Tuesday evening. Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain late Tuesday afternoon, and will shift eastward across the Plains Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains late Tuesday night. This may help keep at least light rain showers going near the Kansas border through Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Monday...the upper high centered over Colorado will shift eastward into the Central Plains for mid to late week, before retrograding back westward into the Great Basin by early next week. As the high shift east, embedded energy over the Desert Southwest is forecast to lift northward across Colorado, with abundant moisture spread across the region. PWAT values are expected to remain in excess of 1 inch, and at times, approach 1.5 inches. Flow by Wednesday afternoon will shift southeasterly on the Plains, and remain that way into the weekend. The combination of upper disturbances, southeast moist upslope flow and high atmospheric water content will lead to widespread daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the region. Initial development is expected over the Mountains, then spreading eastward into the I-25 corridor during the evening and overnight. Wednesday's focus will be along the Eastern Mountains, while the remainder of the period, storms will initially develop along the Continental Divide before spreading eastward. The main concerns will be the potential for heavy rainfall, as these storms look to be efficient rain producers. In addition to the heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be possible. Flash flooding on area burn scars, urban areas and areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall will be possible, especially Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Overall, temperatures will remain hot, with mostly 90s across the Plains, and 80s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. There could be some convection in and around the vicinity of KALS, although most of this will be confined to the surrounding mountains. A few showers may occur in the vicinity of KCOS or KPUB later this evening, although confidence of this is low at this time. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. Winds will be diurnally influenced, although if there is convection in the vicinity of KALS, it could result in periodic windshifts and wind speed increases to occur at either of the two terminals. There is not high confidence of convection to be in the vicinity of KCOS or KPUB, however, keep in mind that distant storms could create outflows which could cause windshifts and increased wind speeds to occur periodically at these stations as well. There will be a higher chance of convection in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB tomorrow afternoon towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...STEWARD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1152 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 COZ058>089-093>099-021800- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1152 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, scattered to widespread over the mountains and isolated to scattered over the San Luis Valley. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the I-25 corridor and over the Raton Mesa. Main impact concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over high risk areas. There could also be some strong and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, small hail, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning within some of the stronger storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue the rest of the period, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty outflow winds possible with stronger storms. Precipitation will be mostly confined to the mountains on Tuesday, before increasing in coverage Wednesday and onwards. Flash flood risk goes up from Wednesday and into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible over portions of the region. STEWARD/88
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022
COZ065-066-069-012230-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
356 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Saguache County through 430 PM MDT...
At 355 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of North Pass, or 27 miles southwest of Decker Burn Scar.
This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Saguache County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3824 10649 3828 10636 3814 10627 3809 10646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 350DEG 3KT 3819 10641
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
kamSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022
COZ074-075-012230-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
357 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Huerfano, east central Costilla and western Las Animas Counties
through 430 PM MDT...
At 357 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Cuchara, or 14 miles southwest of Indian Creek on
the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Huerfano, east central Costilla and western Las Animas Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3718 10521 3722 10528 3729 10534 3738 10526
3732 10516 3728 10513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 226DEG 7KT 3728 10524
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
kamThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Colorado DOT reports CO 114 closed due to flash flooding from CR 36 to FS road 840.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1047181.