Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. Additionally, a shortwave disturbance moved overhead.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. Additionally, a shortwave disturbance moved overhead. This led to widespread showers and thunderstorms across western Colorado. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. Some storms produced localized debris flows across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 4:35 AM MST, 5 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 535 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A few last minutes storms are firing in far Southeast Utah early this morning before 'drier' conditions move in for the early week period. A wave that was firing convection early yesterday morning in SW New Mexico has rotated up into the Monument Valley early this morning and interacted with the instability and moisture axis. One gauge in the area so far has picked up over 3/4 of an inch in less than hour so this monsoon continues to give. This wave is associated with a larger eastern wave that will be rotating northward over the next 24 hours as the SubTropical High consolidates over the far southern Rockies. The 01/00Z H500 hand analysis map still showed the main anticyclonic circulations over the northern Great Basin and Lower Rio Grand River Valley area. Downstream of this a large trough was digging into the Eastern CONUS and this will continue to force the SubTrop high farther Westward. This of course will cut off the monsoonal tap for a few days but not before we spread some of the precipitation wealth to the northern portion of our CWA over the next 24 to 48 hours. As the above mentioned easterly wave lifts northward it will pull the monsoon moisture along with it and spread a better coverage of storms to the north. That is not to say the South will be shutting off. The wave kicking off the early morning convection looks to rotate into the San Juans this afternoon with another round of good storm coverage there. PWATs remain above normal and more storms with heavy rain rates are likely. Most areas will be under a threat of an afternoon storm except close to the Wyoming border. This area will get into the action through the evening and well into the early morning hours as this wave lifts across along with the axis of above normal PWAT. With the high settling over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday subsidence and a disrupted monsoonal plume will bring much drier conditions to the 4 Corners region. Now areas closer to the Wyoming border will see the better chances of precipitation as the moisture and stronger winds aloft focus thundestorms up there. Residual moisture and orographic circulations will keep storms popping over the remainder of our mountains as well...but they should have better movement and less rainfall rates...reducing the threat of flooding. Temperatures should trend upward with the drier air moving in as well with a few areas of red rock country knocking on the door of triple digits by tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to advertise a downturn in convective activity on Wednesday. This is in response to an anticyclonic mid-level circulation pinwheeling northward from southern Arizona and New Mexico into the Four Corners region. Dry air underneath this feature is progged to significantly disrupt the flow of monsoonal moisture and limit the fuel source of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Leftover moisture (PWATs on the order of 100-150% of normal) across the high terrain may be just enough to spark a few isolated showers and storms Wednesday afternoon (as hinted at by the latest 06Z NAMNEST), but overall, a much quieter day is expected with little to no hydro concerns. Given the lack of widespread cloud cover and precipitation, expect temperatures to tick up a couple of degrees compared to Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday, Friday and especially the weekend, a return back to unsettled weather appears likely. WPC ensemble clusters are in reasonably good agreement regarding the evolution of the trough/ridge pattern to round out the work week. A large trough is forecast to dig into the Pacific Northwest before elongating across the northern Rockies southwestward into northern California. This will help to push the ridge of high pressure eastward from the Four Corners back into the central and southern Plains and re-establish the tap of monsoonal moisture. Thursday is likely to be a transition day of sorts with most activity confined to the high terrain south of I-70. Showers and storms then become more widespread across western Colorado on Friday... with the trend continuing Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the EC ensemble is forecasting PWATs to climb into the neighborhood of 150-200% of normal this weekend. Many members of this particular ensemble run show PWATs at KGJT soaring to between 1.1 and 1.4 inches. Compared to climatology, moisture of that magnitude would be well north of the 90th percentile... and nearing record values. With embedded shortwaves enhancing lift and tapping into this moisture (and instability), the threat of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding are a concern. While it's still too early to nail down specifics, locations that have had quite a bit of rain recently (portions of SE Utah, the San Juans, etc) or are more vulnerable to heavy rain in general (slot canyons, burn scars, etc) are likely to be the most at risk. We're still about 4 to 6 days away from this scenario so still some time for changes. That said, keep Friday into the weekend in mind for days when showers and storms could lead to some problems. Temperatures will likely peak on Thursday and top out a few degrees above average. Temperatures will then trend cooler Friday into the weekend as clouds and precipitation become more widespread. Overnight lows will continue to run several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Mid and high level cloudiness continues to drift overhead from debris left over from yesterday's thunderstorms. Different day...same outcome expected with another round of afternoon storms producing gusty outflow winds and moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Temporary MVFR conditions could be met if one of this storms moves over an airfield...a very low confidence prediction at this point. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 344 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-020945- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 344 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorm development will occur again today and persist into the early morning hours over northern portions of Utah and Colorado. Many storms will have the potential for rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour bringing a threat for excess runoff and flooding issues...especially over burn scars and areas that have received heavy rainfall the past few days. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will threats in all areas today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorm coverage will decrease in coverage Tuesday into the late week period as the main monsoon plume becomes cut off. However residual moisture will continue to circulate through the region and lead to at least isolated mountain thunderstorm coverage. Mositure returns to most areas by late this with a threat of heavy rainfall impacting many areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 230 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:42 UTC.
4 debris flow, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Forest Service Road 660, also known as Castle Creek Road, was washed out due to flash flooding as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms. This resulted in the Fish Creek Trailhead being inaccessible.
Mud and debris flowed across County Road 17 at Corbett Creek near the Dallas Trailhead as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
A debris flow occurred on County Road 501 as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
A mudslide occurred on Colorado Highway 133 near Redstone due to heavy rain which resulted in both lanes of traffic being closed due to cleanup operations.
Multiple debris flows occurred on Forest Service Road 314 in White River National Forest as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms. The debris was 18 feet deep in some spots. The road remained closed for several days due to cleanup operations.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035802, 1035788, 1035768, 1035769, 1035770.