An upper level ridge built into Southcentral on June 3-4th. Some weak upper level shortwaves moved through the overall flow aloft helping to create the lift needed to support thunderstorm development.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
An upper level ridge built into Southcentral on June 3-4th. Some weak upper level shortwaves moved through the overall flow aloft helping to create the lift needed to support thunderstorm development. Ample daytime heating underneath the ridge led to instability with generally limited moisture.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 3, 4:20 AM AKST, 10 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 520 AM AKDT Fri Jun 3 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... An east-west oriented upper level ridge still remains in place across much of southern Alaska this morning. However, the ridge is finally starting to break down some with heights lowering. Two vertically stacked upper level lows (the same ones that we have been talking about for days now) remain present this morning with one to the south of the Western and Central Aleutians and the other one moving eastward towards British Columbia. Underneath the upper level ridge, much of Southcentral remains under mostly clear skies with decent radiational cooling. Also, mid to high level clouds can be seen on nighttime microphysics imagery over the northeast Copper River Basin from remnant showers that occurred yesterday evening. Same thing can be seen across Southwest Alaska especially over the Kuskokwim and Kilbuck Mountains. The low pressure system south of the Aleutians and Bering continues to keep the area unsettled with occasional showers from time to time and breezy conditions. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Model guidance remains in decent agreement on the synoptic features out through Day 2. The main forecast issue overnight continues to be with the upper level shortwave that will be meandering about the Alaska Range over the weekend and determining if the thunderstorms that occur will be dry or wet. Most model forecast soundings are showing a fairly dry lower atmosphere over Southwest as well as Southcentral leading to high LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) heights. See Southcentral and Southwest section for more details on potential for dry lightning. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Saturday night)... Hot temperatures will continue through Saturday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal with some areas near or breaking record high temperatures. The high pressure that has brought the hot and dry air over the area is beginning to weaken with a weak shortwave moving across the Copper River Basin today and westward this evening. This wave combined with instability will be the focus of showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms will be high based as the lower levels of the atmosphere are very dry with only light amounts of precipitation expected in the valleys with a bit more in the higher elevations. Additionally, gusty winds will be possible with these storms due to evaporational cooling allowing the air to accelerate downward. Saturday a weak area of low pressure with vorticity, or spin in the atmosphere, will combine with unstable air to spark another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms will continue to be dry in the low levels but may have a bit more moisture to work with as storm coverage will increase, and the storms will be very slow movers so this will give the air more time to add moisture. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level ridge that has been so persistent across much of Southern Alaska for the past week will continue to break down further today. As a result, most of the subsidence that has been occurring aloft will virtually be eroded today aiding in shower and thunderstorm development. Any thunderstorms that do develop will have high LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) heights of approximately 8,000-10,000' with very dry air beneath this level. Therefore, any storms that do develop are likely going to be dry thunderstorms which will be capable of producing dry lightning especially around the Alaska Range and the northeast Copper River Basin. Also, due to the very dry low levels, any rain that does fall is expected to virtually evaporate (virga) before reaching the ground. When looking at the forecast atmospheric profile (soundings), we do see an inverted V shape to it meaning that any of these storms could produce gusty winds underneath them. Heading into the weekend, there is still uncertainty as to if any storms will be dry or wet but each day will basically set up the next. As we continue to put a little more moisture into the air each day, eventually, we should have wet thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday)... Fire weather, both convective and non-convective, remains a concern for much of Southwest Alaska. Hot and dry conditions will continue through Sunday as temperatures climb into the high 70s and relative humidities dip as low as the teens and twenties. Northerly winds pick up on Friday and Saturday as two weak surface troughs push across Bristol Bay. Convective activity will increase as the longwave ridge over the Southern Mainland continues to break down. Weak instability will lead to isolated rain showers across Southwest Alaska this afternoon, with no lightning expected. Lightning becomes a concern by Saturday afternoon, when a robust shortwave approaches from the north. This shortwave will likely provide enough forcing to produce thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Saturday's thunderstorms will be isolated with little associated rain. As such, lightning associated with these storms could potentially start a fire. Fire danger lessens into Sunday afternoon. Though the shortwave moving across Southwest on Sunday will likely produce more thunderstorms, the influx of moisture will also produce more rain. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday)... Little has changed with the vertically stacked low spinning near the Western Aleutians. The low and its front will continue to weaken before dipping south on Saturday. Winds will largely be below 25 kt, except through gaps and passes north of the Eastern Aleutians. Rain along the front in the Eastern Aleutians, and rain showers around the low center in the Central Aleutians, will slowly taper off into Saturday. With high pressure being displaced towards the Bering Strait by the vertically stacked low, the marine stratus will likely continue to lift and fog will be less of a concern. However, as the low dips south Saturday and high pressure slowly spreads across the Bering Sea, low stratus and fog may return. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)... Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Saturday through Monday period. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... A wetter pattern looks to develop over Southcentral early next week and help to displace a persistent ridge of high pressure over the region as of this moment. Models continue to depict a longwave trough settling into the Gulf by Monday with a weak surface trough over the eastern Bering and interior Southwest. This pattern change will bring southeasterly flow from the Gulf into Southcentral with increasing rain chances from Monday into the latter half of the week. Mildly cooler temperatures and some much needed drought relief are forecast. Precipitation chances are also expected to spill over into Southwest as Monday’s wave of low pressure departs Southcentral. Timing of increased precipitation chances for Southwest will wait until Tuesday, but a steady series of smaller disturbances, being brought in from the longwave trough over the Gulf, will keep precipitation chances in the forecast for mainland Alaska through Thursday. High pressure over the western Bering looks to change little and will have trouble gaining any additional footage as multiple smaller disturbances traverse the region. This will likely lead to continued marine stratus and areas of fog west of the Pribilofs and over the Western/Central Aleutians, as well as milder winds in the wake of a departing Aleutian front into the North Pacific on Monday. Something to keep an eye on will be the potential arrival of a new trough of low pressure digging southeastward from the northern Bering and into the Kuskokwim Coast/Bristol Bay area Wednesday into Thursday. This second source of convergence and moisture would see increasing rain chances develop from Kuskokwim Bay southward into the Alaska Peninsula toward the end of the period. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC MARINE/LONG TERM...DAN
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Webcams around the Susitna Valley showed thunderstorms across the region. Also, the AICC lightning map showed multiple lightning strikes in the Susitna Valley. Temperatures across the area ranged from the upper 70s to low 80s with relative humidity's in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds were also sustained between 10 to 15 mph for about an hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, June 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1045166.