Damaging Wind in Alabama, May 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1205 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR ceilings prevail across most inland areas of
the north central Gulf Coast region, with the exception of the
areas near the Gulf where MVFR ceilings are being reported.
Occasional MVFR visibilities and ceilings will be encountered in
and near showers and thunderstorms overnight, mainly along and
west of the Tombigbee River through tonight, expanding eastward
across the coastal areas late tonight into Wednesday morning.
South-southeasterly winds around 10 knots will persist overnight,
with occasional gusts to around 20 knots along the coast. A band
of showers and storms will remain possible late tonight through
Wednesday morning that will spread northward, followed by
numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Added TEMPO
and PROB30 groups to cover the expected convection to the TAFs.
/22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1104 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...As the next shortwave
overspreads the area, scattered to likely showers with embedded
thunderstorms will effect areas along and west of the Tombigbee
River through tonight, expanding eastward across the coastal
areas late tonight. Moisture will be even richer area wide
Wednesday with storms quickly developing and spreading inland.
Once again the same threats exist with heavy rainfall and
potentially some strong storms possible. Heavy rainfall will be an
increasing threat especially into the afternoon as a much more
potent upper trough slides into the area from the west. PWATS will
be at to possibly above 2 inches. Would likely expect to see even
more flooding concerns on Wednesday especially in our poor
draining coastal communities.

A highly amplified upper trof over the central states weakens
somewhat while progressing slowly into the eastern states through
the period. An interesting surface evolution occurs well north of
the area with a pair of surface lows developing in response to the
upper trof and a phased shortwave trof well to the north, and
culminates with a third occluded surface low developing within the
upper trof. The net result is a cold front which progresses
eastward across the lower/mid Mississippi River valley Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning then weakens while moving across
the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The
right entrance region of a substantial 120 knot upper jet on the
eastern side of the upper trof aids in the development of a region
of strong deep layer lift which shifts eastward across the
forecast area between late Wednesday night into early Thursday
afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place over
the region into Thursday, then progressively drier air flows into
the area by Thursday night.

While instability follows the typical trend of tapering off early
Wednesday evening, MLCAPE values then increase during the late
evening and overnight hours reaching 1000-2000 J/kg over much of
southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle while over the remainder of the area lesser values down
to 250 J/kg are expected. Similar MLCAPE values (1000-2000 J/kg)
are expected over the entire area on Thursday until the region of
the strong deep layer lift moves through. 0-3 km bulk shear values
up to 40-45 knots and 0-3 km helicity values up to 200 m2/s2
accompany the strong deep layer lift as it moves through. It's not
clear if the resulting convection from this environment and
overall pattern will be in the form of a single squall line or
rather multiple, less organized lines of convection. Regardless,
there is the potential for strong to severe convection with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts, along with a few tornadic
cells, large hail and locally heavy rainfall. Will have pops
increasing to likely to categorical Wednesday night, then
categorical pops follow for the entire area on Thursday except for
decreasing over the western portion of the area in the afternoon.
Pops continue to decrease to dry conditions from west to east
Thursday night into early Friday morning, with dry conditions
areawide following through Friday night.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will remain mild given
the amount of cloud cover, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the
lower 70s at the coast. Lastly with continued moderate onshore
flow, a HIGH risk of rip currents will continue through the next
few days. BB/03 /29 /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

&&

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