A strong westerly upper level jet over the northern Pacific was directed at the Washington and Oregon coast, driving a plume of deep moisture toward western Washington and northwest Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A strong westerly upper level jet over the northern Pacific was directed at the Washington and Oregon coast, driving a plume of deep moisture toward western Washington and northwest Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 3:23 AM PST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
323 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through at least
the middle of next week. A cold front moves onshore late this evening
with increasing rain and wind. Another system impacts the area Sunday
and Sunday night, followed by additional weather systems through
mid-week. A brief break in the action is expected Wednesday night or
Thursday, but a return to wet conditions is likely Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Surface analysis at 10Z
Sunday shows the cold front has moved inland pushing through the
Portland Metro area and on a line southwest to Florence. The front
will continue to slide southeast early this morning with
precipitation quickly transitioning to mainly light showers across
the area. The winter weather advisories for the north Oregon
Cascades will be allowed to expire at 12Z this morning, and the
Cascades in Land County continuing until 18Z Sunday. The front will
then stall over southern Oregon briefly before the next frontal
system absorbs this front and lifts northward. An upper trough
extending south from the Gulf of Alaska will swing across the
Pacific today and approach the Pacific Northwest by Monday. Multiple
shortwaves embedded within the trough are expected to influence the
weather pattern today through Monday.
The initial shortwave associated with the next frontal system lifts
northward Sun night which will drag a warm front north across
western Oregon into southwest Washington tonight. Rain will spread
across the region this evening and overnight from the south. Snow
levels around 3000-3500 feet will quickly rise with the push of warm
air aloft to around 5500 feet. This will likely keep snow above the
Oregon Cascade passes. But over the southern Washington Cascades
model guidance suggests snow levels will hover around 4500 feet, so
could see higher amounts of heavy, wet snow there. Will issue a
Winter Storm Watch starting at 03Z Monday, with 12 to 24 inches of
snow possible. Will allow later shifts to see if this trend
continues, or if an advisory will be needed. The next shortwave
appears that it will split and go on a more southeast trajectory,
bringing heavier rain with it to southwest Oregon. A frontal
boundary will likely push inland between these shortwaves Monday
continuing the wet and mild conditions. One more shortwave appears
it will push across northwest OR Mon evening enhancing showers.
Wind will also be a concern with the lifting warm front later Sun
afternoon through Sun night. South winds will once again set up
along the coast, with model 925 mb max wind speeds of 60-70 kt. This
could translate to 60 mph gusts along the beaches and headlands
Sunday night, but more likely will see gusts up to 55 mph as surface
gradients are set up with more of a southeasterly gradient, keeping
the stronger winds offshore.
By Tuesday a transitory upper ridge moves across the region allowing
for mostly dry conditions through at least Tue afternoon. The next
Pacific front approaches Tue evening. Latest deterministic models
suggest upper level support weakens as the front moves inland, but
still could see breezy south winds along the coast through Tue
night. /DDH
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...The active weather
pattern continues Wednesday through the end of next week. The ECMWF
MSLP ensemble mean valid 00Z Thu indicates weak ridging over the
area, which lines up reasonably well with the total mean 500 mb
cluster analysis. There is moderate confidence that Wed night
through Thu will be rather quiet, but not confidence enough to go
completely dry. Model discrepancies become more pronounced Fri and
Sat. The 12Z model runs show another frontal system moving into the
area Fri. However, the ECMWF shows a wide range of surface low
solutions. All in all, rather wet and mild conditions look to
persist through the extended period. Weishaar/DDH
&&
.AVIATION...As a cold front pushes inland during the early morning
hours, the steadier rain will come to an end which will likely end
the threat of patchy IFR conditions along the coast and far north
interior areas by 12Z. Expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions
through 01Z today, with the VFR conditions becoming more predominant
between 16Z and 01Z. After 01Z chances for rain associated with a
warm front will increase, and with it prevailing MVFR conditions are
expected to develop for Sunday night.
For detailed regional Pac NW weather information,
go online to: http://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR, occasionally MVFR conditions expected to
continue today, with the MVFR conditions most likely through 18Z
this morning. Ceilings are expected to lower back to MVFR category
after 04Z tonight as a warm begins to spread rain back into the
region.
&&
.MARINE...An active weather pattern will continue over the northeast
Pacific through the first half of next week, keeping seas elevated
with systems periodically moving through bringing gale force winds.
The cold front that moved through overnight has pushed inland, and a
weak ridge of high pressure will move across the waters today,
keeping winds under 20 kt until the afternoon. A warm front lifting
north through the waters this evening will be followed quickly by an
east moving cold front later Sunday night and early Monday.
Southerly winds will strengthen late today, bringing gales tonight
to the waters. There is a small chance that these winds approach
storm force tonight, with the strongest winds expected beyond 10 nm
offshore, but at this point it still appears to be unlikely. As the
cold front moves across early Monday the winds will die down as they
switch to a westerly direction.
Seas today appear likely to remain around 20 ft as a long period
swell continues to move through. As that westerly swell begins to
drop some tonight, southerly winds waves and fresh swell will
steepen the seas and likely hold the combined seas height in the
range of 18 to 20 ft into Monday morning.
Southerly winds are expected to increase again Monday night into
Tuesday as another frontal system approaches. Winds by Tuesday
afternoon are likely rise to gale force, with the strongest winds
over the outer waters. Expect seas to subside a few feet Monday
afternoon as both the west swell and the fresh southerly swell
subside. The break will be short-lived however, as seas are expected
to build back into the range of 18 to 21 ft Monday night and
Tuesday.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
Cascades in Lane County.
WA...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for South
Washington Coast.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
South Washington Cascades.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for coastal
waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60
NM.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Monday for
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR
out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for coastal
waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Monday for
coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Columbia River
Bar.
&&
Interact with us via social media:
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www.twitter.com/NWSPortlandPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1037 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE OTTER ROCK 44.76N 124.05W
01/02/2021 M82 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION AR160 CAPE FOULWEATHER.
&&
TJKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1113 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1046 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE YACHATS 44.29N 124.08W
01/02/2021 M84 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION AV549 CAPE PERPETUA.
&&
TJKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1208 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE DURHAM 45.41N 122.74W
01/03/2021 M1.35 INCH CLACKAMAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
&&
TJKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1215 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW FARMINGTON 45.43N 123.01W
01/03/2021 M1.72 INCH WASHINGTON OR PUBLIC
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
&&
TJKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1216 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN VERNONIA 45.86N 123.19W
01/03/2021 E1.24 INCH COLUMBIA OR PUBLIC
TOTAL 24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
&&
TJKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1221 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW FARMINGTON 45.43N 123.01W
01/03/2021 M1.72 INCH WASHINGTON OR PUBLIC
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE DURHAM 45.41N 122.74W
01/03/2021 M1.35 INCH CLACKAMAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN VERNONIA 45.86N 123.19W
01/03/2021 E1.24 INCH COLUMBIA OR PUBLIC
TOTAL 24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT
1/2/2021 THROUGH MIDNIGHT 1/3/2021.
1053 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG OREGON CITY 45.34N 122.60W
01/02/2021 CLACKAMAS OR PUBLIC
TREE DOWN NEAR LINN AVE IN OREGON CITY.
1046 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE YACHATS 44.29N 124.08W
01/02/2021 M84 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION AV549 CAPE PERPETUA.
1037 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE OTTER ROCK 44.76N 124.05W
01/02/2021 M82 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION AR160 CAPE FOULWEATHER.
1030 PM HEAVY RAIN LINCOLN CITY 44.98N 124.00W
01/02/2021 M1.96 INCH LINCOLN OR PUBLIC
24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL IN LINCOLN CITY, AS OF
10:30 PM PST ON 1/2/2021.
1021 PM HEAVY RAIN WARRENTON 46.17N 123.92W
01/02/2021 M3.60 INCH CLATSOP OR PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT ON 1/2/2021.
1016 PM HEAVY RAIN WILLAMINA 45.08N 123.48W
01/02/2021 M1.04 INCH YAMHILL OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE HEBO 45.21N 123.75W
01/02/2021 M86 MPH YAMHILL OR MESONET
MESONET STATION AR658 MT. HEBO.
1000 PM HEAVY RAIN FOREST GROVE 45.52N 123.11W
01/02/2021 M1.18 INCH WASHINGTON OR COCORAHS
TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 8 AM PST AND 10 PM
PST ON 1/2/2021.
0906 PM HEAVY RAIN NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
01/02/2021 M1.69 INCH LINCOLN OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW NORTH BONNEVILLE 45.72N 122.04W
01/02/2021 M77 MPH SKAMANIA WA MESONET
MESONET STATION TRKW1 THREE CORNER ROCK
RAWS.
0845 PM HEAVY RAIN OTTER ROCK 44.75N 124.06W
01/02/2021 M1.64 INCH LINCOLN OR PUBLIC
0811 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.62N 124.06W
01/02/2021 M63 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION ODT38 YAQUINA BAY BRIDGE.
0803 PM HEAVY RAIN GLENWOOD 45.65N 123.27W
01/02/2021 M2.21 INCH WASHINGTON OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
0712 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW FALLS CITY 44.92N 123.47W
01/02/2021 M69 MPH POLK OR MESONET
MESONET STATION RKHO3 ROCKHOUSE RAWS.
0707 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE STELLA 46.20N 123.04W
01/02/2021 M1.14 INCH COWLITZ WA PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
0643 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 E TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.79W
01/02/2021 M1.90 INCH TILLAMOOK OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT ON
1/2/2021.
0614 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW OYSTERVILLE 46.55N 124.04W
01/02/2021 M2.00 INCH PACIFIC WA PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR SINCE MIDNIGHT ON 1/2/2021.
0600 PM HEAVY RAIN CASTLE ROCK 46.28N 122.91W
01/02/2021 E1.97 INCH COWLITZ WA TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY, SINCE 6 AM PST ON
1/2/2021.
0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE WARRENTON 46.15N 123.88W
01/02/2021 M1.49 INCH CLATSOP OR ASOS
ASOS STATION KAST ASTORIA.
0546 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE CANNON BEACH 45.90N 123.88W
01/02/2021 M1.36 INCH CLATSOP OR MESONET
MESONET STATION FW8590 SEASIDE.
0545 PM HEAVY RAIN CANNON BEACH 45.89N 123.96W
01/02/2021 M1.47 INCH CLATSOP OR MESONET
MESONET STATION EW9956 CANNON BEACH.
0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S GRANDE RONDE 45.05N 123.62W
01/02/2021 M1.10 INCH POLK OR CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GDRO3 0.7 S GRANDE
RONDE.
0527 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 WSW TABLE ROCK 44.94N 122.40W
01/02/2021 M1.34 INCH CLACKAMAS OR MESONET
MESONET STATION HSFO3 HORSE CREEK RAWS.
0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE TRAPPER CREEK WIL 45.94N 121.99W
01/02/2021 M1.36 INCH SKAMANIA WA MESONET
MESONET STATION DCCW1 DRY CREEK RAWS.
0517 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 ESE SNOW PEAK 44.59N 122.43W
01/02/2021 M1.43 INCH LINN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION YEFO3 YELLOWSTONE MTN RAWS.
0515 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW PIKE 45.31N 123.35W
01/02/2021 M1.60 INCH YAMHILL OR CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HSKO3 6.3 SW PIKE.
0515 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW SHERWOOD 45.33N 122.89W
01/02/2021 M1.02 INCH WASHINGTON OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY, MEASURED AT 5:15 PM
PST ON 1/2/2021.
0514 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE KLASKANINE SUMMIT 46.01N 123.56W
01/02/2021 M1.69 INCH CLATSOP OR MESONET
MESONET STATION TWRO3 TIDEWATER RAWS.
0514 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 NE GRANDE RONDE INDIA 45.22N 123.54W
01/02/2021 M1.44 INCH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
MESONET STATION BDFO3 RYE MOUNTAIN RAWS.
0512 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE LEES CAMP 45.60N 123.48W
01/02/2021 M2.01 INCH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
MESONET STATION SFKO3 SOUTH FORK RAWS.
0512 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 E TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.80W
01/02/2021 M1.47 INCH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
MESONET STATION TMKO3 TILLAMOOK RAWS.
0511 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE FRANCES 46.50N 123.38W
01/02/2021 M2.44 INCH PACIFIC WA MESONET
MESONET STATION HKFW1 HUCKLEBERRY RIDGE
RAWS.
0510 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 ESE HEBO 45.21N 123.77W
01/02/2021 M2.23 INCH YAMHILL OR MESONET
MESONET STATION CDFO3 CEDAR RAWS.
0509 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE ELKHORN MOUNTAIN 45.72N 122.35W
01/02/2021 M1.25 INCH CLARK WA MESONET
MESONET STATION TR951 LARCH MOUNTAIN RAWS.
0506 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W LOST LAKE 45.50N 121.90W
01/02/2021 M1.10 INCH MULTNOMAH OR MESONET
MESONET STATION LGFO3 LOG CREEK RAWS.
0503 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S TIDEWATER 44.35N 123.89W
01/02/2021 M1.10 INCH LINCOLN OR MESONET
MESONET STATION CNFO3 CANNIBAL MOUNTAIN
RAWS.
0501 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WNW COLDWATER RIDGE V 46.31N 122.39W
01/02/2021 M1.00 INCH COWLITZ WA MESONET
MESONET STATION EKRW1 ELK ROCK RAWS.
0501 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW RYDERWOOD 46.34N 123.08W
01/02/2021 M2.20 INCH COWLITZ WA MESONET
MESONET STATION ABNW1 ABERNATHY MTN RAWS.
0449 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW TOLEDO 44.59N 123.96W
01/02/2021 LINCOLN OR PUBLIC
REPORT OF A TREE DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN.
0440 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE PLEASANT VALLEY 45.39N 123.80W
01/02/2021 M1.27 INCH TILLAMOOK OR COCORAHS
RAINFALL SO FAR SINCE 7 AM PST 1/2/2021.
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN RYDERWOOD 46.37N 123.05W
01/02/2021 M1.00 INCH COWLITZ WA TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN FROM 10AM TO 3PM.
0835 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LEES CAMP 45.63N 123.59W
01/02/2021 M1.81 INCH TILLAMOOK OR COCORAHS
TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 7:55 AM ON 1/1/2021.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW SILETZ 44.71N 123.93W
01/02/2021 M1.33 INCH LINCOLN OR COCORAHS
RAINFALL SINCE 8 AM PST ON 1/1/2021.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E MOHLER 45.70N 123.81W
01/02/2021 E1.12 INCH TILLAMOOK OR COCORAHS
RAINFALL SINCE 8 AM PST ON 1/1/2021.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Willapa River at Willapa (WILW1) reached flood stage at 0345PST, crested at 21.2 feet then dropped below flood stage at 0800PST on January 3rd. Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 938474.