A weakening line of thunderstorms Memorial Day morning, followed by a second line of storms that evening (which developed along an approaching cold front), led to instances of heavy rain and flooding across the region. One storm also produced minor wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A weakening line of thunderstorms Memorial Day morning, followed by a second line of storms that evening (which developed along an approaching cold front), led to instances of heavy rain and flooding across the region. One storm also produced minor wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 12:37 PM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 137 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ After an early round of showers and storms containing isolated pockets of very heavy rainfall this past morning, the next in line of mid level impulses is now moving east across West TX (and SW OK) toward the forecast area. The aforementioned morning clouds and storms have made forecasting high temperatures and PoPs quite problematic, as environmental conditions are slowly expected to recover across North Texas this afternoon and evening with S or SE winds 5 to 15 mph with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest and immediate Red River Valley, to between 75 and 80 degrees along the I-20 (and I-30 in the East) corridors. Central TX saw little in the way of impacts from morning convection and will remain the warmest and most unstable, especially those areas along and west of Highway 6. These areas will see highs pushing into the lower-middle 80s with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG, which lessens as you move further north and east. Meanwhile, deep layer, westerly bulk shear on the order of 35-40 knots is expected to combine with this instability and approaching lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by tonight. A band of strong thunderstorms containing locally heavy rainfall will continue to move east-southeast across the area, especially impacting areas south of Highway 380. Due to previous rainfall and the potential for run off, areas along and north of I-20 and generally west of US-75 will remain in a Flash Flood Watch through 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning. As this semi-linear complex of showers and storms approaches the more unstable airmass that's recharging west of I-35 and especially along/south of I-20, I would expect a few severe storms containing damaging winds to be realized with a few clusters and bowing structures. I don't expect the hail threat to be too egregious, as lapse rates aloft aren't overly steep after some convective interruption this morning and initial subsidence behind the morning mid level disturbance. Still, hail up to quarter, or possibly half dollar size will be possible with values between 6.5-7 deg C/km. In addition, I can't rule out a brief spin up tornado or two considering the expected differential heating combining with fairly strong S/SW, 0-1km flow between 20 and 30 knots and old outflow boundaries around. By late evening and into the overnight hours, look for an linear MCS (or possible QLCS) to evolve across Central TX, before weakening before daybreak Tuesday with a lessening threat for strong to severe storms. Low level wind fields will be veering and weakening, along with the MCS entering a more unfavorable early morning environment off our S/SE CWA boundary. Lows should be mostly in the 60s, though a few readings in the lower 70s may remain across the mid-lower Brazos and Trinity River Valley where convection and outflows likely won't be realized until around sunrise. I do expect more rural areas from DFW to the Red River Valley and out west to see enough radiational effects to produce some patchy fog. Otherwise, Tuesday should be a relatively more quiet day with regard to convection, as mass subsidence takes hold with a subtle cold front dropping south through the area. Highs should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, so don't expect much of a cool down. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 252 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ /Tuesday Onward/ A line of convection will be ongoing (east of I-35) as we begin the day on Tuesday. This line of showers and storms will likely be decreasing in strength through the morning hours on Tuesday, but heavy rain will continue to be a threat nonetheless. Well above normal soil moisture will lead to quick runoff, increasing the flooding potential. The front responsible for tonight's high rain chances will likely stall somewhere along or just south of I-20 Tuesday. Afternoon destabilization may lead to renewed convection along and ahead of the front. With lapse rate around 7-7.5 degrees C/km and pockets of instability around 1500 K/kg, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out east of I-35. If storms do develop, the main hazards would be damaging winds and a few instances of hail. Another shortwave will be rounding the base of the upper trough Tuesday night, likely leading to another batch of more widespread precipitation south of I-20. Given the nocturnal nature of the storms and a rather unimpressive low-level jet, brief heavy rain will be the main hazard. With the antecedent rainfall expected today and tonight, tomorrow night's rain may lead to renewed potential for flooding. The main upper trough will be moving east of our region by Thursday, but unfortunately that trough will be quickly replaced by another trough to our west. The low-level wind field is likely to increase out of the south, allowing for a quick return of moisture through the region. This may lead to occasional warm-air advection showers and a few storms Thursday and Friday. The global numerical guidance is now closing off the aformentioned upper trough into a cut-off low as the jet stream shifts into the northern parts of the country. With the jet stream far removed from the cut-off low, a nearly stationary source of ascent may continue to impact the region through the end of the week. Just how much and what time the rain will fall remains in question given the rain chances will be driven by the smaller scale features left over from previous rainfall. The one aspect of the forecast with higher confidence will be the continuation of the below normal temperatures we've been experiencing across North and Central Texas. Overall, highs will be in the 70s and 80s, which would be somewhere around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ Similar to the past few weeks, challenges continue to be timing of showers and storms and cig trends/wind directions with storm outflows, etc. After a round of morning RA/SHRA and isolated TS, another shortwave disturbance to the west of the D10 and Waco Regional Airport continues to generate a line(band) of new TSRA development our near KABI/KBKD/and KGZN, or to the west of US-281 and the KMWL area. Convective washout has resulted in cigs varying from IFR to VFR across the D10, as well as Waco Regional. The approaching mid level disturbance and associated diurnal TSRA containing +RA will continue to move east toward the D10 airports by/after 21z. Highest impacts from TS are generally expected to be in a window between 22z-04z, before subsidence settles in. I will advertise prevailing high MVFR/low VFR cigs through that time, with a TEMPO TSRA and low MVFR cigs, with heavier rainfall dropping vsbys down into the IFR category. The main impacts will be westbound air traffic, with especially the Glen Rose cornerpost being impacted. The Bowie cornerpost could see some impacts as well through this evening, but confidence is lower. The problem lies with the CAMs and other short-term high-res guidance struggling on overall convective evolution. Winds should prevail from S-SE around 10 knots or less, but with variable gusts 20 to 40 knots in/near storms. By 06z Tuesday and beyond, subsidence in behind our late day system should take hold with VCSH still possible into the pre-dawn hours, but overall a lowering of cigs into IFR/low MVFR category. More significant VSBY drops should remain to the W/NW of the airports, but will need to be watched closely through tonight. The prevailing S/SE winds 10 knots or less "should" veer W/WSW in behind the expected linear MCS that evolves this evening across the region. Cigs and vsbys are expected to prevail within the MVFR category by mid-morning Tuesday and beyond. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 68 80 65 83 / 100 90 60 30 30 Waco 82 69 82 67 80 / 50 70 70 50 60 Paris 73 67 78 63 79 / 50 90 90 40 30 Denton 73 66 79 61 80 / 100 90 50 30 30 McKinney 76 67 80 63 81 / 100 90 70 30 30 Dallas 79 68 81 67 83 / 100 90 60 30 30 Terrell 79 68 81 64 80 / 50 80 80 40 40 Corsicana 80 69 81 67 81 / 40 60 70 50 50 Temple 80 69 83 66 79 / 30 50 60 50 60 Mineral Wells 77 65 76 61 80 / 100 100 40 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>120-129>134-141. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1218 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 1218 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and through tonight. A few strong to severe storms containing hail and strong winds are possible, especially along and south of Interstate 20 where where warmer temperatures and higher instability will exist. Any additional heavy rainfall may lead to a few instances of flash flooding across portions of North Texas, especially by tonight where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through early Tuesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible east of I- 35 Tuesday afternoon, with mainly a strong to damaging wind threat. Storm chances will continue through the rest of the week. Any heavy rain may lead to flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Very limited spotter activation may be needed late today and this evening across Central Texas. Also, any reports of flooding or flash flooding are greatly appreciated.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 42 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:12 UTC.
7 flash flood, 2 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A public report indicated flash flooding near Highway 180 in the city of Breckenridge, TX. An emergency manager also reported Gunsolus Creek was out of its banks.
A public report indicated that a sheet metal roof was lifted and trees were blown down along County Road 479 near the intersection of County Roads 570 and 571.
Amateur radio reported street flooding near the Leon River in the city of Eastland, TX.
Amateur radio reported flood waters about one foot deep over FM 2214 approximately 4 miles east of Eastland, TX.
A social media report indicated flash flooding on South Main St in Weatherford, TX.
Amateur radio reported multiple vehicles stranded in flooded roadways near Dallas Executive Airport.
A National Weather Service employee reported flash flooding along FM 1886 at Silver Creek, with water rushing over the road.
FM 576 was closed due to high water; but the exact location and extent of the closure was not confirmed.
Street flooding occurred in Coolidge. Some of the water spilled over and inundated house yards.
A public report indicated a downed tree and minor flooding near the intersection of Highway 79 and Highway 294.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 962746, 962707, 963104, 962755, 962757, 962759, 962767, 963105, 963106, 962775.