Thunderstorms developed off of the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico on the afternoon of the 30th. This activity became more widespread as it approached West Texas among stronger available instability.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed off of the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico on the afternoon of the 30th. This activity became more widespread as it approached West Texas among stronger available instability. However, a general lack of deep layer shear prevented most of these storms from becoming severe. This thunderstorm activity eventually became very slow moving and produced heavy rainfall over a large area over Hockley County. Numerous reports of flooding were reported in Hockley County from Sundown to Levelland. A widespread area generally received over three inches of rainfall during the evening of the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 5:29 PM CST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 629 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are occurring at area terminals early this evening. Watching thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico which will gradually congeal into a line and sweep across the forecast area this evening impacting all terminals through early tomorrow morning. Gusty westerly winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with these thunderstorms. Behind the thunderstorms there are some indications that IFR ceilings may return to the terminals however this will be dependent on how quickly the storms move east of the area. Ceilings will gradually improve by late morning and early afternoon. There is the potential for additional afternoon and early evening thunderstorms tomorrow however this activity is dependent on how tonights convection plays out therefore have let this mention out of the TAFs for now. /WCI && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021/ SHORT TERM... As advertised, convection is beginning to take shape across eastern New Mexico early this afternoon and will affect the region this evening and through the early morning hours on Monday. There is no real noticable short wave within the mid and upper level flow today. Winds aloft will continue to increase over a broad area which will act to increase the amount of large scale lift overhead. The mid and upper flow will also continue to back to the southwest this afternoon as a long wave trough moves across the western CONUS. The base of this trough was seen located off the coast of Baja California early this afternoon. Not much, if any, isolated activity is expected outside of the eastern New Mexico convection this afternoon. There is a notable lack of surface convergence over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Possibly a very weak quasi- stationary front was draped across the area from northwest to southeast but that may be too generous. The main convective activity expected this evening will be a complex rolling in from eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms have already initiated off of the Sacramento mountains of eastern New Mexico early this afternoon in a favorable environment and will continue to move into a favorable environment to sustain updrafts. Mixed layer CAPEs continue to climb at this time with values around 1500 J/kg at the moment. These values are expected to peak closer to 2000 J/kg later this afternoon. Good mid level lapse rates around 7C/km combined with deep layer shear of 30-40kt will support severe storms on the South Plains this evening. Initially, large hail will be the primary threat as storms make their way into Texas from New Mexico. But will likely transition to a wind threat as we lose the daytime heating. The other main threat will be heavy rainfall from these thunderstorms through at least Monday morning. Fatter CAPEs will exist over eastern New Mexico into the western South Plains but model soundings show skinnier CAPEs for most of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. NCAPE values were around 0.1 both on and off the caprock. This is indicative of slower updrafts providing more time for rainfall to develop. Furthermore, the warm cloud depth will increase through the evening providing for more efficient rainfall producing storms. The best warm cloud depths will be off the caprock as well as highest soil moisture values. Areas off the caprock will likely have the greatest flooding threat because of this but the threat will extend on the caprock as well. The upper low will move across the southwestern US overnight tonight. Additional lift from the upper low will brush the area Monday morning into the afternoon providing another chance of thunderstorms. However, severe potential will be low on Monday with less instability under cooler conditions. LONG TERM... The extended forecasts begins late Monday night with ongoing convection and potentially heavy rainfall at times, with strong to marginally severe storms possible too. The center of an upper level Pacific Low will begin to retrograde slightly and separate from a sharpening trough associated with the Polar Jet. This upper level broad shear axis will support lift from the mid-levels up, while a surface cold front gradually works south across our CWA during the early morning hours Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon the cold front will be well south of the I20 corridor while a surface trough pushes east across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Rain chances begin to get more scattered for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as PWATS lower slightly, and the best forcing is well to our south. Chance POPs linger Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon upper level shortwaves embedded within a secondary trough recombining with the nearly stationary low over the southern Baja of Mexico, will present a chance at more strong to severe thunderstorms moving out of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains amid northwest flow aloft. By Thursday afternoon the trough associated with the Polar Jet begins to exit east while the closed low remains almost stationary over the Baja, and an upper level ridge begins to amplify across the western CONUS. The GFS and ECMWF seem to be struggling with this transition somewhat. Along with mixed signals in the guidance, opportunities late in the week for more strong to severe convection and heavy rainfall will depend on how much surface heating can influence thermodynamic vertical profiles, though PWATS are progged to remain in the 0.9 t0 1.10 range into next weekend, so surface moisture recovery shouldn't be an issue. Overall temperatures are expected to be below normal through the week, as you'd expect with so much rainfall and cloud cover. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ021>044. && 58/01/55
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1151 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 TXZ021>044-311700- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1151 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A line of thunderstorms, some severe, is expected to occur late this afternoon into the evening and affect the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains. Heavy rainfall is expected. Rain rates within thunderstorms may locally exceed two to three inches per hour at times which will lead to a high threat of flooding, especially given the recent rainfall over the last week across the region. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to golf ball size will be possible initially, with the hail threat confined to isolated thunderstorms that form in the late afternoon. After thunderstorms form into a line, the main hazards will be flooding and localized damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Widespread thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night. Decreasing instability will bring a decreased threat for severe weather. However, isolated strong thunderstorms could become marginally severe or produce locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday through Saturday, and these storms will bring a risk for severe weather each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
849 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 W MORTON 33.72N 102.81W
05/30/2021 COCHRAN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2100380
JWJThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:51 UTC.
1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm chaser reported hail up to quarter size about five miles west of Morton. Additionally, trees were blown down just east of the location of the hail.
Widespread thunderstorms over the western and southwestern South Plains produced heavy rainfall over a large area. Numerous reports of flooding were received in Hockley County with multiple roads underwater. Widespread rain totals of up to three inches were common over the flooded areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953449, 953450.