Rip Current in Texas, May 23, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
703 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

.AVIATION...

VCT currently MVFR and all others are VFR. Expecting
flight categories to drop to MVFR across all sites as CIG's lower
tonight. VCT will remain MVFR throughout the period while all other
sites return to VFR conditions tomorrow afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible at VCT overnight through the end of
the period. A period of showers is possible at CRP early Monday
morning but Less confident for timing and coverage out west so left
it out of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon captured an upper low lifting
slowly north into the NW Gulf ahead of PWATs about 1/2 inch less
compared to the Mid and Upper Texas Coast. The axis of rich PWATs
AOA 2 inches is progged sit relatively unchanged tonight as the low
shifts north over the region, so following a lull in precip this
evening we expect an uptick in precip late tonight as background
ascent improves. Behind the low/opening wave on Monday morning,
models are in good agreement in keeping a trailing N-S axis of broad
ascent east of the residual trough axis. This should foster
additional convection through the morning, before tapering from
south to north through the afternoon as mid-level drying expands.
Given rainfall already of 1-2 inches today in portions of Victoria
County, the stage remains primed for flash flooding with this latter
round of precip later tonight into Monday morning across the
Crossroads area.

Model-wise, the HREF mean has been performing rather well so far
with this event and delivers a bullseye of 4-7 inches of total rain
(thru Tue morning) north of Matagorda Bay and outside our CWA.
The Victoria Crossroads should still see an additional 2-3 inches
with higher swaths possible before convection tapers here late
Monday afternoon and evening. The Flash Flood Watch was extended
until 7 PM Monday to allow for a greater buffer in this timing.

Monday night shows greater spread with rain chances as some
models key on a shortwave trough convecting in SW flow as it
reaches the coast, but this potential appears slightly better by
12z Tuesday so have left just slight chance PoPs for Monday
night.

Minor coastal flooding also continues tonight and Monday night as
favorable swell periods and the lunar cycle combine for inundation
of 1.5 feet or slightly higher per the P-ETSS.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday as
another shortwave crosses the area. Best chances for precipitation
will be across the northeast Coastal Bend near Victoria area where
PWATS are progged to be near 2 inches.  Additional rainfall amounts
of 1/4 to 1/3 inch will be possible.  After this shortwave passes,
we start to dry out and warm up as a mid level ridge develops over
the region and persists through the end of the forecast period.
Expect temperatures to climb to slightly above normal with triple
digits out west and areas along the coast in the upper 80s to low
90s. Afternoon heat indices will range from 100-104 out west.

Latest P-ETSS guidance continues to show a concern for minor to
moderate coastal flooding with tide levels reaching 2.0 to near 3.0
feet MSL through the end of the week. These higher tides will be
a result of a long easterly fetch across the Gulf of Mexico
combined with the full moon.

MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will continue to result in elevated seas and a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Monday morning for the
open waters. An upper low arriving tonight from the western Gulf
will bring increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms
tonight through Monday morning, before reducing in coverage Monday
afternoon as the low exits. Moderate onshore flow lingers through
Monday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through
the end of the week, leading to periods of SCEC conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday.
Drier conditions are expected Wednesday and will persist through
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  83  74  84  75  /  50  50  10  30   0
Victoria          71  80  72  82  73  /  60  80  30  60  10
Laredo            73  92  75  97  76  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice             71  86  72  89  73  /  30  40  10  40   0
Rockport          74  81  75  84  76  /  60  60  20  40   0
Cotulla           72  89  75  94  75  /  20  30  10  30  10
Kingsville        72  86  73  86  75  /  40  40  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       75  81  75  82  76  /  50  60  10  30   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening For the following
     zones: Coastal Calhoun...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Victoria.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

BF/80...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
335 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-242045-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
335 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch continues for Victoria, Goliad and Calhoun
Counties until Monday evening. Additional heavy rainfall of 1 to 3
inches with locally higher amounts are possible in these areas.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Monday evening for
the coastal areas from Baffin Bay to Port OConnor.

There is a High Risk of Rip Currents today.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight, especially in the Victoria Crossroads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a High Risk of Rip Currents on Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday,
becoming isolated by mid week.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible each day during
times of high tide.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-242045-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
335 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the open waters until 7
AM Monday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible Monday and
Tuesday.