After a day of widespread severe thunderstorm activity on the 17th, scattered thunderstorms again developed on the afternoon of the 18th. Instability was not as great on the 18th, therefore, most thunderstorms were not severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
After a day of widespread severe thunderstorm activity on the 17th, scattered thunderstorms again developed on the afternoon of the 18th. Instability was not as great on the 18th, therefore, most thunderstorms were not severe. However, one storm became strong enough to produce a severe wind gust in Lamb County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 2:05 PM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 305 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 .SHORT TERM... Current analysis depicts an upper level cutoff low centered over the NM/CO border. Upper level support for convection is certainly adequate this afternoon as a weak shortwave and associated PVA rotates around the base of the low. Indeed, convection is already occurring in eastern NM, co-located with a relative maximum in upper level difluence, along with the aforementioned PVA. This convection appears to have formed along the dryline in the vicinity of a weak surface trough near the TX/NM border. Instability and wind shear across the region are both notably lower today than yesterday, however a risk of severe hail and damaging wind still exists courtesy of continued steep mid level lapse rates due to our proximity to the upper low. Regarding potential for convection within the CWA this afternoon and evening, hi-res guidance differs considerably in the location and evolution of storms, likely due to varying comprehension of weak surface features and a lack of a coherent focusing mechanism for storms. Surface analysis courtesy of the West Texas Mesonet does appear to indicate a diffuse discontinuity in dew point and wind presently draped across the CWA. As of 1930z, this boundary stretches along a line from approximately Levelland to Abernathy to Floydada. While steering flow is weak and shear is modest at best, any storms that form or move into the area may focus in the vicinity of this boundary. Aside from this boundary and a modest eastward push from the dryline later this afternoon, little other surface-based mechanisms exist to encourage large-scale convective development. Combined with the spread in model guidance, the short term forecast has higher than normal uncertainty this afternoon. Nevertheless, there is still a risk for severe weather. Later this evening, a somewhat better signal exists that a loosely organized cluster of storms may move through the southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains before exiting the CWA early Wednesday morning. A risk for severe wind gusts and hail exists with this activity as well. Area-wide, low clouds are expected to return Wednesday morning, with chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering throughout the morning as the upper low meanders over northeastern NM. Chances for convection return yet again on Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-27 corridor. However, the strength and coverage of convection will be highly dependent on the uncertain evolution of today and tonight's storm activity. Therefore, confidence in Wednesday's forecast is relatively low as well. Severe hazards in the form of hail and wind gusts are possible on Wednesday due to continued steep mid level lapse rates and ample moisture. .LONG TERM... A brief respite to the active weather pattern is in store for Thursday into early Friday as the upper low that brought the stormy weather ejects quickly northeastward and gets incorporated into the northern jet stream over the Great Lakes. However, the resultant pattern with an upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a strong upper low over the Great Basin will funnel low to mid level moisture northwestward from the Texas Gulf Coast to northwest Texas. This moisture will probably serve as the fuel for some thunderstorm development as early as Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend, although forcing for said storms will likely remain weak with dryline remaining well to the west in central to eastern New Mexico and a series of weak shortwave troughs ejecting from the main upper low. In addition, the upper low over the western quarter of the CONUS will favor diurnal thunderstorm development on the higher terrain of New Mexico with the potential for storms to push to the east/northeast toward the western parts of the forecast area. The upper low is progged to eject across the northern Plains on Monday leaving a weak upper level ridge over the southern Plains and downstream from yet another upper trough over the West Coast. This pattern for Monday and Tuesday could favor dryline convection, especially if supported by any ejecting upper trough from the base of the broader West Coast trough. High temperatures through the period favored to remain below seasonal average with the persistent troughiness while overnight lows likely to remain mild due to continued low level moisture on south to southeast winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 30/58/07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1108 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 TXZ021>044-191615- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1108 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, primarily west of the Caprock Escarpment. The most intense storms will be capable of producing hail to golf ball size, wind gusts to 65 mph and heavy rainfall. This evening, storms are expected to move eastward, mainly affecting the southern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. A risk for large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall will persist with this activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Another round of thunderstorms is possible early Wednesday morning on the Caprock. At this time, no widespread severe weather is expected with this round of storms. More thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon near the I-27 corridor in the vicinity of a dryline. The main threats with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. Friday into the weekend, active weather will likely return to the area. Some storms may become strong to severe with an additional risk for heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
448 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
TXZ027-033-182230-
Bailey TX-Cochran TX-
448 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BAILEY...NORTHERN
COCHRAN AND NORTHWESTERN HOCKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...
At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Bledsoe, or 11 miles southwest of Morton, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Morton, Enochs, Lehman, Bledsoe and Muleshoe Wildlife Refuge.
LAT...LON 3396 10276 3377 10261 3365 10261 3352 10292
3363 10305 3367 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 227DEG 15KT 3364 10293
RMCQUEENPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
459 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 SW MULESHOE 34.13N 102.85W
05/17/2021 BAILEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER STILL COVERING PORTIONS OF FM746 THE FOLLOWING
MORNING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2100339
MCONDERThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Amherst measured a severe wind gust of 64 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953111.